【作者】 陈楚天；

【导师】 孙健；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 现代产业结构调整和就业结构调整都是社会经济发展的重要体现，也为社会经济顺利健康发展提供了重要动力。因此，产业结构和就业结构都引起理论层面和实践层面的关注。另一方面，我国“三农”问题将来是发展的重点，在产业结构调整和就业结构调整过程中都会涉及到该领域的问题。因此，在产业以及就业结构调整过程中也涉及对农村的劳动力的变化状况的思考，不是单一的就产业结构或就业结构来思考发展的问题，而是在分析两种结构调整的同时注重对两者之间的协调性的探讨，能够更加全面地发现我国现代经济发展中的基本规律和存在的问题，最终实现更多的研究价值，为我国的社会经济发展实践提供更加贴合实际的研究结论，从而为社会经济发展提供更多的建议和参考。本文正是基于上述考虑，首先主要介绍了选择青岛产业结构和就业结构协调发展这一主题的研究背景和主要意义，并且对基本研究的对象进行了科学界定，并且在搜集和整理的基础上，对国内外相关研究成果进行了回顾和评述，此外，还介绍了本文在讨论中采取的主要研究方法和内容，并简单给出了研究思路和论文框架，明确了创新所在，为整体研究做好了前提准备。在此基础上，本文给出了针对产业结构与就业结构讨论的理论基础，主要是针对产业结构与就业结构演进相关理论总结和阐述，为全面分析和讨论青岛的农业劳动力转移和产业结构与就业结构协调性提供了坚实的基础和支持。在这一部分本文首先从国家的经济发展战略和产业政策因素、国际贸易与国际投资因素、需求结构变动因素、供给结构约束因素以及科学技术因素等角度分析产业结构与就业结构演进动因；进而重点介绍“配第——克拉克定理”、“库兹涅茨法则”以及“钱纳里国际标准结构”，并且在介绍过程中，还给予了一定的评述；此外，本文对中国特殊的城乡二元经济结构提炼出了主要的经济特征，并且在这一角度，对刘易斯、拉尼斯、费景汉、托达罗等发展经济学家提出的发展中国家二元经济结构劳动力转移一般模型进行了总体的介绍和评述。以前面的基本介绍和阐述为支撑，本文主要对青岛农业发展和产业结构与就业结构演变进行了全面的思考。对青岛产业结构与就业结构的演进历程通过划分阶段的方式给予了具体而系统的分析，主要将视野放在了对这一过程的特征的分析和总结上，从而利用结果和钱纳里国际标准结构之间实施了比较分析，以便科学合理地定位中国产业结构与就业结构发展过程中暴露出来的主要问题，其中对农业为代表的第一产业的变化给予了重点考虑。此后，本文针对青岛产业结构与就业结构的关联性进行了深入剖析。首先主要分析产业结构与就业结构的相互作用机理，以理论层面的思考确定了二者在发展过程中确实存在的密切关联性。并且具体采取了相关分析、就业弹性分析、比较劳动生产率分析等多种分析方法和途径，全方位地对青岛产业结构与就业结构的关联性实施了实证讨论，在这一过程中，也较好地体现了农业发展在其中的地位。接下来，本文对青岛产业结构与就业结构演进协调性分析。这部分的讨论是本文研究的关键所在，主要是运用结构偏离度、协调系数等指标来研究中国产业结构与就业结构的协调性，以便准确理解和把握两个结构之间发展过程中的协调性。基本来说，首先采取传统结构偏离度方法测算青岛三次产业的结构偏离度；并利用相似系数经验公式构建产业结构与就业结构协调系数，科学地测算推断了1991-2010年期间青岛产业结构与就业结构协调系数，从而较为宏观地阐述了两个结构之间的协调性和均衡状况。在前面分析的基础上，本文主要对青岛产业结构与就业结构失衡因素进行了全面讨论，完成了本文重点论述的另一个方面的内容。主要是立足于前期对相关各种文献成果，提出了对产业结构与就业结构不协调主要因素的主要内容，从这个基点出发本文对工业化发展战略、技术进步、投资与消费的关系、劳动力市场化程度、对外开放程度、劳动力素质、城市化水平等影响因素展开了定性讨论，形成了较好的变量指标体系，并且利用偏最小二乘通径分析模型给予了实证检验，最后获取了各影响因素与三次产业结构偏离度之间的回归方程，最后量化分析并较为准确滴得出了青岛产业结构与就业结构协调发展的科学依据和决策基础。在最后的政策建议的讨论里，本文主要针对兼顾产业升级和促进就业、实现青岛产业结构与就业结构协调发展的路径和措施进行了思考，对于农业调整和发展的背景以及参与到系统结构调整中的重要地位也有了更高层面的认识和理解。全文对于农村劳动力转移和青岛市产业结构产业结构发展方面的研究得出了一定的结论，具有一定的价值，不过局限性和不足仍然较为明显，需要在后续的研究中加以弥补和深化。更多还原

【Abstract】 The adjustment of industrial structure and employment structure adjustment is an importantmanifestation of social and economic development, but also provide the important impetus to the social andeconomic development. Therefore, the industrial structure and employment structure caused by the theoreticaland practical aspects of attention. On the other hand, China’s "three rural issues" to be the focus ofdevelopment, will be involved in the field of problems in the process of adjustment of industrial structure andemployment structure adjustment. Therefore, changes in the process of thinking in industrial and employmentstructure adjustment is also related to the rural labor force, not a single industry structure and employmentstructure to thinking about development, but in the analysis of two kinds of structural adjustment at the sametime attention to the coordination between them, can be more comprehensive to find the basic law in moderneconomic development and existing problems, and ultimately provide more research value, researchconclusion more practical for the practice of our country’s social and economic development, so as to providemore advice and reference for the development of social economy.This article is based on the above considerations, first introduces the choice of Qingdao industry structureand employment structure coordinated development research background and significance of this topic, andthe object of study of a scientific definition, and based on the collection and sorting, the paper reviews therelated research results at home and abroad, in addition, it introduces the main research methods and contentto take in this discussion, and brieflypresents research ideas and the framework of this paper, the innovationlies, dothe premise for the whole research. On this basis, this paper gives the theoretical basis for discussion ofthe industrial structure and employment structure, mainly for the industrial structure and employmentstructure evolution theory and summarized, providing basis and support for a comprehensive analysisanddiscussion of Qingdao transfer of agricultural labor transfer and industrial structure and employment structure. In this part, firstly, from the economic development strategy and national industrial policy factors,factors, internationaltrade and international investment demand structure, supply structure constraintsfactorsand technology factors such as industrial structure and employment structure evolution analysis; and thenfocuses on the "petty Clark theorem,--""Kuznets’s law" and "Chenery international standard structure", and intheprocess, also gives some comments; in addition, the Chinese special urban and rural economic structure oftwo yuan to extract the main economic characteristics,and in this point of view, transfer model of labor ofLewis, Fei Jinghan, TodaroRanis, development economists such as proposed in developing countries theeconomic structure of two yuan for the overall introduction and comments.Introduction to basic front and described as the support, this paper focuses onthe development ofQingdao agriculture and industry structure and employmentstructure evolution of the overall thinking. Theevolution of industrial structure and employment structure of Qingdao gave a concrete and systematicanalysisby dividing the phases, will mainly focus on the analysis and summary ofcharacteristics of the processof implementation, which uses the comparative analysis between the results and Chenery internationalstandard structure, the main problems exposed to scientific and rational positioning Chinese industrystructureand employment structure in the process of the development of the first industry, changes in agriculture as therepresentative of the given priority. Then,this paper analyzes the correlation between industry structure andemployment structure of Qingdao. The first is the analysis of interaction mechanism betweenindustrialstructure and employment structure, thinking of the theory to determinethe close connection between the twoexists in the development process. Andspecific to the correlation analysis, the employment elasticityanalysis,comparative labor productivity analysis and other analytical methods and approaches, a full range ofassociation of industry structure and employment structure in Qingdao implementation of the empiricaldiscussion, in this process,also reflects the position of agricultural development. Next, based on the analysis ofthe industrial structure and employment structure evolution of Qingdaocoordination. Discussion of this part isthe key of this paper, is to coordinate theuse structure deviation degree, coordination coefficient as index tostudyChinese industry structure and employment structure, in order to accurately understand and grasp thebetween the two structure in the process of development coordination. Basically, the structure of thetraditional structure deviation degree method to calculate the three industries of Qingdao deviation;andsimilarity coefficient experience formula of constructing the coordination of industrial structure andemployment structure coefficient, scientific calculationinference during the period1991-2010Qingdao industrial structure and employment structure coordination coefficient, thus the paper illustrates thestructureof coordination between the two and the equilibrium condition. On the basis of above analysis, this papermakes a comprehensive discussion on the industrial structure and employment structure imbalance factors inQingdao,completed this paper focuses on another aspect of the content. Is mainly based on the relatedliteratures, and puts forward the main contents of uncoordinated industrial structure and employment structurefactors, from this point on theindustrialization development strategy, technological progress, the relationshipbetween investment and consumption, the degree of labour market, open degree, labor quality, city level andother factors the qualitative discussion,formed a good indicator system, and the use of partial least squarespathanalysis model to give an empirical test, finally get the influencing factors and the three industrialstructure deviation from regression equation between thequantitative analysis more accurate, and drop thescientific basis and decision-making basis for the coordinated development of industrial structure and theemployment structure in Qingdao. In the discussion of policy recommendations,this paper considers theindustrial upgrading and promote employment, realize the coordinated development of industrial structure andemployment structure of Qingdao’s path and measures were thinking, for the agricultural adjustment anddevelopment background and participate in important status to the systemstructure adjustment also haveknowledge and understanding of the higher level.The research on the transfer of rural labor force andindustrial structure in Qingdao City, the development of the industrial structure and draws certain conclusions,has a certain value, but still have obvious limitations and shortcomings, need to supplement and deepen in thefollow-up study.更多还原