【作者】 王佳；

【导师】 张广海；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 旅游管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 随着世界经济发展和社会文明进步，统筹经济、社会、生态和环境系统协调可持续发展逐渐成为全球热点问题。我国沿海地区是旅游经济发展格局中最具活力和潜力的核心地区，旅游业在推进区域经济发展、海洋开发、海陆一体化与“新东部”建设起到不可替代的作用。但是沿海地区旅游业的发展也给沿海生态环境带来了巨大压力，旅游超载现象较为普遍，造成现代“城市病”、海陆环境污染、生态系统失衡等问题。因而如何提高沿海地区旅游环境承载能力、预防调控旅游超载或弱载问题、促进海陆生态环境与旅游产业协同发展具有重要的现实意义和理论价值。鉴于此，将预警理论引入到旅游环境承载力研究领域，借鉴生态学、环境经济学、可持续发展理论和主体功能区划等理论，在梳理国内外旅游环境承载力预警研究进展的基础上，结合旅游环境承载力预警的理论解析，采用系统动力学仿真方法，对我国沿海地区旅游环境承载力预警系统进行模拟分析，并提出相应发展对策，有助于弥补我国旅游环境承载力预警研究的不足，为缓解我国沿海地区旅游环境超负荷承载问题、推动旅游开发与环境保护协调发展提供理论依据和方法参考。主要内容如下：（1）旅游环境承载力预警的理论基础。系统解析旅游环境承载力与旅游环境承载力预警的相关概念，详细阐述旅游环境承载力预警研究的理论基础，分析旅游环境承载力评价与预测方法，探讨旅游环境承载力预警系统的内涵、构成（旅游资源环境承载力、旅游生态环境承载力、旅游经济环境承载力和旅游社会环境承载力四大预警子系统）、特征及运行机制（利用控制图方法划分弱载区、成长区、健康区、适载区和超载区5个预警区间）。（2）我国沿海地区旅游业发展环境分析。分析我国沿海地区旅游业发展的基础环境，包括经济实力、资源环境、政策制度，从旅游资源及其开发类型、旅游产业发展水平、旅游产品体系等探讨旅游业发展现状，探讨旅游业发展对土地环境、水体环境、生物环境、大气环境和社会环境的影响。（3）旅游环境承载力预警评价指标体系与预警仿真模型。深入分析旅游环境承载力预警系统内外部环境要素，建立由50个指标组成的评价指标体系，确定指标权重与标准，运用状态空间评价法、综合指数法定量测度旅游环境承载力预警指数，构建系统动力学动态仿真模型，确定系统目标及边界，绘制因果关系反馈图，确定8个状态变量、8个速率变量、66个辅助变量和113个常量，编写旅游环境承载力预警系统方程，并通过基于历史数据检验方法的合理性检验。（4）我国沿海地区旅游环境承载力预警SD仿真分析。根据旅游环境承载力预警仿真模型，针对沿海11个省、市、自治区，以2004年为基准年，运用Vensim软件对区域旅游环境承载力进行模拟仿真，确定警界区间，判断2004-2025年间区域旅游环境承载力预警指数的时序变化、空间差异和空间关联，并设计4类调控方案，通过仿真比较，探讨我国沿海地区旅游业的发展模式。（5）我国沿海地区旅游环境承载力预警管理。从构建预警管理信息系统、完善法制管理体系、协调利益相关者关系、优化系统内部环境和划分旅游主体功能区等方面提出旅游环境承载力预警管理措施，保障预警系统正常运行。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the world economic developing and social civilization progressing, it hasbeen a global hot issue to achieve coordinated and sustainable development of theeconomical, social, ecological and environmental systems. The coastal areas in Chinagradually become the core region of the tourism economic development pattern withthe most dynamic economy and potential, and tourism industry plays an irreplaceablerole in promoting regional economic development, marine development, integratedland and sea, and the "new eastern" building. However, the tourism development incoastal areas brings tremendous pressure on the coastal environment, and overloadedphenomenon exists in many tourist destinations, causing modern "urban diseases",resource depletion, land and sea pollution, ecosystem imbalance and other issues.Therefore it has an important practical significance and theoretical value to discusshow to improve the tourism environment carrying capacity（TECC）in coastal areas,prevent overloaded or weak carrier problem, and promote the sustainabledevelopment between land-sea environment and tourism industry.In view of these, this thesis brings the early-warning theory into the study fieldof TECC, combining with the ecology, environmental economics, sustainabledevelopment theory and the main function division theory. Based on the systematicresearch progress of the early warning on the TECC at home and abroad, according tothe theoretical explaination of the early-warning system of TECC, this thesis couldmake a simulation analysis of the TECC early warning system in coastal areas inChina by using the System Dynamics model, and propose the correspondingdevelopment measures, in order to compensate for the lack of the early-warningresearch of TECC in China, and provide theoretical foundation and reference forrelieving the overloaded carrying problems and promoting the coordinatedrelationship between tourism development and environmental protection. The main research contents of this thesis are as follows:(1) The basic theory of the early warning of tourism environmental carryingcapacity. This article analyzes the concepts about tourism environmental carryingcapacity and the early warning of tourism environmental carrying capacity, andelaborated the basic theory of the early-warning research of TECC. The paperconstructs the evaluation method and prediction method, and discusses theconnotation, composition (including the tourism environmental carrying capacity inthe aspect of resource, ecology, economy, and society), characteristics and operatingmechanism(dividing the early warning range into five regions, which are unsaturated,growing, healthy, optimal loading and overloading by using the Control ChartMethod).(2) The environment analysis of the tourism industry development in coastalareas of China. The article analyzes the basic environment of tourism industrydevelopment in coastal areas of China, including economic power, resource andenvironment, and policy system. Then it discusses development situation of thetourism industry from the basic tourism resource, tourism economic conditions andtourism product system, and diagnoses the impacts which the tourism industrydevelopment has on land environment, water environment, biological environment,atmospheric environment and social environment.(3) The evaluation system and simulation model about the early warning systemof TECC. By deeply analyzing the internal and external environmental factors of thesystem, this article constructs evaluation index system including50indicators anddefines the standards of them. Besides, it measures the early warning index of TECCwith the Method of State Spatial Evaluation, establishes the evaluation model ofSystem Dynamics (SD), determines the system objectives and boundary, draw acause-and-effect feedback chart, and determines8level variances,8rate variables,66auxiliary variables and113constant values of the system, writes equations of theearly warning system, and uses the historical data test method to examine therationality of the SD Simulation model.(4) System Dynamics (SD) simulation analysis of the early warning of TECC in coastal areas of China. Based on the simulation model of the early warning of TECC,taking2004as the base year, this paper simulates the TECC through Vensim softwarefor the coastal regions of China, determines the caution interval, distinguishesvariation trend and spatial variation of the early warning index number of TECCbetween2004and2025, designs four types of programs, and discusses thedevelopment pattern of the coastal tourism in china through simulation.(5) Early warning management of TECC in coastal areas of China. From therespects of building early warning management information system, completing lawmanagement system, coordinating interests of different stakeholders, optimizinginternal system environment and dividing tourism functional area, this articleproposes some early warning managements of TECC in order to insure the normaloperation of the early warning system.更多还原