中国城镇养老保险制度的收入分配效应研究

【作者】 马德；

【导师】 席恒；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 公共经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,我国经济发展和社会各项事业取得举世瞩目的成就,全国各族人民不断从经济增长中得到实惠,老年人口收入水平显著提高。然而,在经济增长放缓的同时,城镇养老金收入随着收入分配差距的扩大而呈现出逐渐拉大的趋势,养老水平的差距主要是劳动者在劳动期内地区差距、行业差距等方面的延续,城镇养老保险制度的收入再分配功能非但没有发挥应有效应,反而延续并扩大了老年人口的收入差距,这直接影响到劳动人口和退休人口的根本利益,如果不能得到足够重视,老年风险可能会蔓延至国家政治风险、企业经营风险、社会稳定大局等多个层面。老年人收入问题归根到底是要放在整个收入分配格局当中考虑,城镇养老保险的收入分配效应的发生机理、制度设计的影响因素以及如何影响制度的运行,是否应当从国家层面和家庭(个人)两个层面进行制度反思并提出理想模式作为制度调整的参考依据。本文运用对比分析、归纳分析与计量分析等方法,对我国城镇养老保险的收入分配效应以及影响因素进行分析,通过制度反思对现行城镇养老保险制度提出理想模式。主要包括四个方面内容：(1)梳理了对城镇养老保险与收入分配的相关理论和研究,详细比较了有关收入分配、城镇养老保险的理论与研究方法；(2)对我国城镇养老保险收入分配格局现状、职业收入规律进行阶段划分,对老年风险的分布与识别、风险的传递与触发,以及老年风险信号向国家、社会和个人三个层面进行传递的机制进行了分析；(3)在对比分析国外养老保险制度和我国养老保险经验分析的基础上,归纳得出城镇养老保险对收入分配的三类效应,即诱导效应、参与效应和替代效应,对三类效应的基本内涵及作用机理、运行特征进行了分别研究,得出了相应的结论；(4)综合分析三类效应相互作用的运行效果和基本方式,应用分析现行养老制度对政策预期和测度进行反思,筛选影响因素并利用VAR模型对其进行验证,进而提出符合我国基本国情的城镇养老保险理想模式和我国养老保险制度改革途径。本文主要结论包括：(1)对城镇养老保险的省际时间序列比较后发现,随着劳动报酬在GDP中份额的下降,城镇养老水平也在不断下降,养老保险制度对收入分配差距的扩大没有抑制作用,反而存在放大的作用；(2)城镇养老保险制度对收入分配的诱导效应、参与效应两种正效应未发挥应有作用,而具有负效应的替代效应作用较显著,财政养老补贴的制度利差对吸引更多潜在参保者加入该制度具有诱导效应；(3)企业提高劳动者报酬来激发雇员不断提高劳动生产率,老年收入差距过大等社会风险由发达地区向欠发达地区转移,从男性向女性转移,从低收入者向高收入者转移,现行城镇养老保险制度可能已经是造成收入分配差距扩大的一个诱因。(4)利用三类效应对现行城镇养老保险制度结构的合理性、项目的周全性、水平的可承受性以及需求的满足程度四方面进行分析,得出目前我国城镇养老保险制度需要作进一步调整。(5)提出我国城镇养老保险制度的调整思路。总体思路是建立与经济发展相适应的多支柱城镇养老保险体系,实现城镇养老保险制度的收入分配效应。城镇养老保险理想模式应由三个层次构成,最底层是基础养老保险(含个人账户和地方附加),第二层是职业年金,第三层是灵活的私营商业养老保险计划和个体私人储蓄养老计划。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening up, China has gained remarkable achievements of economic development and social undertakings improvement, hence people from all nationalities have been benefited from the economic growth, and the aged people’s income has been improving significantly. However, the redistributing role of urban pension insurance system has not played its due effect, but has continuously enlarged the income gap and disparity among the aged people. And the study from internal layer of the system can not solve the problem from the root. Ultimately the aged people’s revenue problem should be placed into the entire income distribution system. The study on producing mechanism, affecting factors of system design and measures to influence the system operating for the income distribution of urban pension insurance system should be carried out from both the national side and the family side, and an ideal model should be raised as the reference to the entire system adjustment.The methods of comparative analysis, inductive analysis and econometric analysis have been adopted in this paper to analyze income distribution effects and impacting elements of China’s urban pension insurance system. Based on the existing urban pension insurance system, this paper has presented an ideal model from the following four aspects:(1) listing related theory and research on pension insurance and income distribution, making a detailed comparison of different theory and research on pension insurance and income distribution;(2) Inducing regularity of pension income distribution patterns in different occupations of China’s urban areas, and analyzing the risk identification, risk transfer and triggers for aged people’s income distribution; Analyzing signals of the risk transfer mechanism for the elderly to the levels of state, society and individuals;(3) Basing on the comparative results of foreign and domestic pension insurance system, and inducing three types of effects from urban pension insurance upon income distribution, namely as inductive effects, participation effects and substitution effects; Analyzing the basic content and mechanism of three types of effects separately and drawing the corresponding conclusions;(4) Conducting a comprehensive analysis of interaction of these three types of effects and basic operating ways, reflecting upon the existing pension system analysis and policy expectations and measurement; Selecting effect factors and adopting VAR model to testified, and then proposing an ideal model of urban pension insurance and endowment insurance system reform methods in line with China ’s basic national conditions. Based on the above research, this paper comes to the following main conclusions:(1) Basing on the comparison of the time series of inter-provincial urban pension insurance, the urban pension levels are declining along with the decline of labor compensation’s percentage in GDP. So the pension system does not narrow the gap of income distribution but enlarged it;(2)The urban pension insurance system does not effect well in guiding or participating in the income distribution, but plays a negative role of substitution effect significantly, instead the interest difference of financial subsidies attracts more potential insured people and acts as guiding effect.(3) Enterprises has improved compensation for workers to stimulate employees to continuously improve labor productivity. And social risks, raising from aged people’s income gap getting wider, have been transferring from developed areas to less developed regions, and from low-income to high-income earners. Probably, the existing urban pension insurance system may have caused above social risks.(4)Analyzing from the reasonableness, comprehensiveness, affordability and necessity of satisfactory level by adopting these three effects in the current urban pension insurance system, then a conclusion that the current urban pension insurance system needs to be adjusted further has come into being.(5) The thought on adjustment to current urban pension insurance system in China has been raised. The general idea is to create a multi-supporting pension system compatible with economic development, hence to achieve the effects of income distribution covering by urban pension insurance system. The ideal model of urban pension insurance should be formed of three layers:the bottom layer is the foundation for pension insurance (including personal accounts and local surcharges). The second layer is the occupational pension, and the third layer is composing of flexible private commercial pension insurance plans and private individual pension savings plans.更多还原