【作者】 吴石磊；

【导师】 赵鑫；

【作者基本信息】 东北师范大学 ， 产业经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 消费、投资和出口是拉动经济增长的三驾马车。后金融危机时代，全球经济持续疲软，多个欧洲国家主权债务危机频频爆发，加上成本优势、人口红利以及制度红利等经济增长优势逐渐减弱，这就要求我国经济增长模式由外向型向内向型转变。中国是拥有十三亿人口的消费市场大国，居民消费是拉动经济增长的根本动力。但近年来，中国居民消费率总体持续下降，居民消费对经济增长的拉动作用明显减弱。居民消费需求不足已成为我国经济持续快速增长的阻碍因素。消费结构升级是促进居民消费的有效动力。根据需求层次理论，随着人们收入的增加，基本物质需求得到满足后，主要消费需求将变为精神、娱乐等方面的需求。按照世界各国的经验，人均GDP超过3000美元，文化消费会快速增长；接近或超过5000美元，文化消费则会出现井喷。中国人均GDP自2008年起达到3000美元，2011年达到5000美元。可见，文化消费是未来消费增加的热点，也是推动居民消费结构升级的关键，但目前我国居民文化消费仍处于较低水平。文化产业是生产文化产品和提供文化服务的部门，主要满足人们的精神文化需求，符合消费结构升级的发展趋势，同时也是促进文化发展和繁荣的重要载体。文化产业以其低投入、低消耗、强关联等诸多优势被国际社会公认为是21世纪最具增长潜力的“朝阳产业”，符合产业结构升级的发展方向。许多国家将其视为国家战略产业，中国政府也把推动文化产业发展提高到国家战略层面。本文根据生产与消费的关系、产业结构与消费结构的关系理论，以扩大居民消费为切入点，将文化产业发展与居民消费结合起来进行研究。基于文化产业具有的产业属性（经济属性）和文化属性（意识形态属性）双重属性特点，分析文化产业发展对居民消费的影响机制，并采用中国文化产业发展和居民消费的面板数据，利用异质性随机边界模型（SFA）、面板模型、投入产出法、部分调整模型等计量分析工具实证检验中国文化产业发展对居民消费的影响，据此提出相关政策建议。具体来说，本文主要包括以下几个部分内容：第一章引言。包括选题背景、研究意义、基本思路、研究方法和创新之处。第二章相关理论和文献综述。包括概念界定、相关理论和相关文献综述。第三章中国文化产业发展和居民消费现状分析。首先，从规模和结构两方面分析中国文化产业发展现状。文化产业增长迅速，发展态势较好，但基础弱、总量小。同时，文化产业发展存在行业、区域和所有制结构不合理问题；其次，从居民消费总量、居民人均消费、居民消费倾向和居民消费能力四个方面分析居民消费状况。居民消费总量不断提高，但人均消费处于较低水平。居民消费倾向总体持续下降。中国居民消费能力快速提高，已步入中等收入国家行列，但城乡差距较大。第四章中国文化产业发展对居民消费的影响机制分析。文化产业因其生产的产品能够满足人们的消费需求而具有产业属性。文化产业生产的产品和提供的服务主要满足人们的精神文化需求，同生产物质产品的产业不同，具有特殊的文化属性。本章根据文化产业具有的双重属性特点，构建文化产业发展影响居民消费的基本分析框架，在此基础上，逐层展开，系统地分析文化产业发展对居民消费的影响机制。第五章中国文化产业发展对居民消费影响的实证分析。根据文化产业发展对居民消费的影响机制，从居民消费总量、居民消费潜力和居民消费能力三个方面展开，分别进行实证分析。实证研究结果表明：文化产业发展通过产品供给效应、产业关联和产业融合效应，不但能够促进居民增加文化产品消费，也能够带动居民增加非文化产品消费，从而促进居民消费总量的增加。但目前，文化产业生产效率不高，样本区间内平均生产效率仅为50%-60%。文化产业对其他产业的需求拉动作用和影响力系数较大，但推动支撑作用和感应度系数小；文化产业发展通过提升居民消费结构、提高居民消费意愿，能够有效促进居民消费潜力的开发，这需要文化产业充分发挥其产业属性和文化属性的价值；文化产业发展能够通过增加社会就业、提高人力资本素质能够有效促进居民消费能力的提高。但目前，文化产业带动社会就业的作用有待进一步加强，提高人力资本素质的作用还处于初步发展阶段。第六章扩大居民消费视角下中国文化产业发展对策。根据中国文化产业发展对居民消费的作用机制及实证分析结果，提出相应的政策建议。第七章主要结论及研究展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 Consumption, investment and exports are troika of driving economic growth. Inpost-financial-crisis era, global economy weakened continually, many Europeancountries’ sovereign debt crisis erupted frequently, economic growth benefitsincluding cost advantage, demographic dividend, system bonus and so on lessenedgradually. As a result, model of China’s economic growh must be transformed fromoutward-oriented to inward-oriented. China is a large consumption country with1.3billion people, which makes household consumption be fundamental force of pullingeconomic growth. However, in recent years China’s household consumption ratedeclined continually, the pulling effect of household consumption on economicgrowth weakened significantly. Insufficiency of household consumption has been abig impediment to China’s rapid and ongoing economic growth.Upgrading of comsumption structure is effective force of stimulating householdconsumption. Hierarchy of needs theory states that, spiritual and entertainment needswill be key demands as income increases and basic material needs of people are met.According to experiences of countries worldwide, culture consumption will growrapidly when per capita GDP exceeds3000U.S.dollars, culture consumption willoccur blowout when per capita GDP approaches or exceeds5000U.S.dollars. China’sper capita GDP reached3000U.S.dollars since2008and arrived at5000U.S.dollarsin2011. Therefore culture consumption is a hot topic of future consumption growthand key to stimulate household consumption structure upgrading. However, China’shousehold culture consumption is in a relatively low level now.Culture products and services produced by culture industry are mainly used tomeet people’s spiritual and cultural needs which accords with development trend ofconsumption structure upgrading and are important vehicles to promote culturedevelopment and prosperity. Culture industry has many advantages such as low input,low consumption, strong associations, and it has been recognized by the internationalcommunity as the most growth-potential sunrise industry of21st century which is inline with development direction of industry structure upgrading. Many countriesconsider it as national strategic industry and Chinese government also lifts promotingdevelopment of culture industry to the level of national strategy.The thesis starts with enlarging household consumption, combined cultureindustry and consumption on basis of theory of relationships between production andconsumption, industry structure and consumption structure. With dual characteristicsof culture industry’s economic attribute (industry attribute) and cultural attribute(ideology attribute), the thesis analyzes impact mechanisms of culture industrydevelopment on household consumption, and uses panel data of China’s culture industry development and household consumption and heterogeneous stochasticfrontier model(SFA), panel modell, input-output method, partial adjustment modeland other econometric analysis to test empirically effects of China’s culture industrydevelopment on household consumption. Accordingly, we puts forward relevantpolicy recommendations. The thesis includes the following sections:Chapter One is Introduction. Including research background and significance,basic ideas, research methods and innovations.Chapter Two is Relevant theories and literature review. Including conceptdefinition, relevant theories and literature review.Chapter Three is Current situation development of China culture industy andhousehold consumption. Firstly, the research analyzes culture industry developmentstatus quo from two aspects of scale and structure. Culture industry increases rapidlyand its development trend is good, but its basis is weak and the amount is small,meanwhile the internal structure, regional structure and ownership structure isirrational; Secondly, the thesis analyzes household consumption from four aspectsincluding total amount of consumption, per capital consumption, consumptionpropensity and consuming power. Tatal amount of household consumption improvescontinuously, but per capita consumption remains low. Household consumptionpropensity declined continually and is lower than most countries in the world. China’shousehold consumption power improves quickly and China has entered the ranks ofmiddle-income countries, but there’s a big gap between urban and rural areas.Chapter Four is Analysis of the impact mechanisms of China’s culture industrydevelopment on household consumption. Culture industry has economic attributes onbasis that its products can meet people’s consumption needs, and also has specialcultural attributes because its products are culture products which are different fromthe material products and used to meet people’s spiritual needs. The chapter buildsanalysis framework of the effect of China’s culture industry development onhousehold consumption on basis of dual attributes of culture industry, thensystematically analyzes impact mechanisms of culture industry development onhousehold consumption.Chapter Five is Empirical analysis on the influence of China’s culture industrydevelopment on household consumption. According to impact mechanisms of cultureindustry development on household consumption, the thesis makes an empiricalanalysis from three aspects containing total amount of household consumption,household consumption potentials, household consumption power. The empiricalresults show that: culture industry development can not only increase amount ofcultural products consumption but also amount of non-cultural products, which leadsto increase of total amount of household consumption. But, productivity of cultureindustry is not high, the average is50%-60%within the sample now. Demand pullingeffect and influence coefficient of culture industry on other industries is relatively large, however, role of promoting and supporting and sensitivity coefficient is small;Development of culture industry can promote effectively exploitation of householdconsumption potentials through improving household consumption structure andwillingness of household consumption, and this requires culture industry to make fulluse of culture industry’s economic and cultural attributes. Development of cultureindustry can impact household consumption power by increasing society employmentamount and qualities of human capital. However, employment pulling effect ofculture industry remains to be enhanced and human capital pulling effect is still in thepreliminary stage.Chapter Six is Countermeasures of China’s culture industry development basedon enlarging household consumption. The thesis puts forward corresponding policyrecommendations based on impact mechanisms of China’s culture industrydevelopment on household consumption and empirical results.Chapter Seven is Main conclusions and research prospects.更多还原