工业化进程中能源消费碳排放演变规律研究

【作者】 黄宜；

【导师】 赵光洲；

【作者基本信息】 昆明理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 十八大报告首次提出了建设美丽中国,将生态文明建设与经济建设、政治建设、文化建设、社会建设并列,“五位一体”地建设中国特色社会主义。十八届三中全会提出建立系统完整的生态文明制度体系,实行最严格的源头保护制度、损害赔偿制度、责任追究制度,完善环境治理和生态修复制度,用制度保护生态环境。体现了我国在发展经济的同时,越来越注重生态环境的文明。随着经济的发展,我国的工业化进程不断推进,如何有效地减少和降低由于工业化进程的推进带来的碳排放是我们必须要承担的责任,也是面临的重大挑战。目前,对于工业化进程的判断,已有的研究采用多种方法分别进行判断,但因判断结果不一致,最后采用定性方法进行最终确认工业化的进程；目前存在采用多种方法对工业化进程进行综合的判断,但对各方法仅采用等权重法进行综合,论文采用主客观方法并结合方差最大化组合赋权对各种方法进赋权,从而对工业化进程进行了综合的量化判断研究,更准确、客观地对我国的工业化进行了判断,以便更好地推进工业化进程。另外,已有的研究对于工业化进程与碳排放关系过多集中在定性分析上面,对于定量研究中的工业化进程的量化多采用GDP或是工业占GDP的比重来替代。但是衡量工业化的标准是多方面的,论文在环境库兹涅茨的基础上面建立两者之间的关系模型,并对工业化进程进行尽可能全面的量化,从而找出两者之间的关系。其次,论文通过合作博弈中的Shapley值方法分配总误差来确定组合预测模型中各方法的权重,从而对能源消费总量进行预测。最后,论文利用证据理论及信息融合的方法对碳排放预警进行研究,并对云南省2001-2010年的警情进行了判定。论文共包括九章,每章研究内容如下。第一章,绪论。主要介绍论文的选题背景、意义及论文的研究方法、研究内容和创新点等。第二章,文献综述。主要介绍了国内外已有的与本文论文相关的研究成果和最新进展,包括工业化进程、碳排放影响因素、工业化与碳排放相结合、碳排放预测、碳排放预警等几个方面的相关研究。并对已有的研究进行了评述。第三章,能源消费碳排放演变特征及影响因素研究——以云南省为例。对云南省1952-2010年的碳排放量及碳排放强度建立时间序列图,并进行了相关分析,最后对影响碳排放的因素进行了实证研究。第四章,工业化进程判定研究——以云南省为例。运用在实践中影响最为广泛的H.钱纳里多国模型,西蒙.库兹涅茨定理,配第-克拉克定理,钱纳里城市化率标准对我国工业化的发展进程进行初步判断,并利用层次分析法、熵值法、基于方差最大化的组合赋权法等来确定工业化进程判断中各方法的权重对工业化进程进行综合判断,分析在未来的一段时间内我国的工业化走向。第五章,工业化进程与碳排放函数关系模型研究——以云南省为例。在环境库兹涅茨曲线的基础上建立工业化进程与碳排放之间的函数关系模型,并找出工业化进程与碳排放之间的函数关系。第六章,能源消费碳排放预测模型研究——以云南省为例。采用指数平滑法,系统动力学,灰色预测三种方法结合,并通过Shapley值的方法来确定各种方法的权重,预测未来的能源消费量,结合马尔科夫链预测出各能源品种的比重,从而求出碳排放量。第七章,能源消费碳排放预警模型研究——以云南省为例。利用证据理论和信息融合的方法对云南省2001-2010年的碳排放警情做出了判断。第八章,工业化进程中能源消费碳排放对策建议研究。主要从能源消费碳排放对策的框架体系、运行体系两方面进行研究。第九章,结论和建议。对本文的结论进行了总结,给出了相关的建议,并对未来的研究进行了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 The18th national congress of the communist party of China first proposed to build the beautiful Chinese, the ecological civilization construction and economic construction, political construction, cultural construction, social construction side by side,"five in one" construction Chinese socialism. The Third Plenary Session of the eighteen proposed the building of ecological civilization, ecological civilization system must be established a complete system, the source of the most stringent protection system, damage compensation system, accountability system, improve the environmental management and ecological restoration system, using the system to protect the ecological environment. It reflected our country pays more and more attention to ecological civilization in the development of economy at the same time. With the development of economy, China’s industrialization process constantly advancing, how to effectively reduce due to promote the industrialization process of carbon emissions is our country must bear the responsibility, it is a big challenge faced.At present, the existing research judge the industrialization process using a variety of methods. But because the judgment results inconsistent, finally they make a final confirmation of industrialization using qualitative methods. There are several methods have been used for the comprehensive judgment of the industrialization process, but the method only using weight method. This paper used the subjective and objective method and combining the variance maximization of various methods in weight in the process of industrialization of comprehensive quantitative judgment, in order to more accurately, objectively on the industrialization of our country and so as to better promote the industrialization process. In addition, the existing research on the relationship between industrialization and carbon emissions too much focus on qualitative analysis and the quantitative study of the industrialization process more use GDP or industry accounted for the proportion of GDP to replace. But the measure standard of industrialization has many aspects. This paper will establish the relationship model between them based on envir, nmental Kuznets, and carries on the quantification as comprehensively as possible of the industrialization process in order to find out the relationship between them. Secondly, the shapley value of the cooperative game method of allocating the total error to determine the weight of each method of combination forecast model, which can be used to predict the total energy consumption. Finally, the paper establishes the method of carbon emission warning model based on evidence theory and information fusion. And using this model determined Yunnan province alarm from2001to2010.This paper includes nine chapters, each chapter is as follows. The first chapter, introduction. It mainly introduces the background, significance and research methods, research content and innovation points etc... The second chapter, literature review. Mainly introduced and recent progress related to the research results home and abroad, including the industrialization process, carbon emission factors, industrialization and carbon emissions, carbon emissions combined forecasting, carbon emission warning and other aspects of the related research. And the research of existing was reviewed. The third chapter, energy consumption and carbon emission characteristics and influencing factors of the evolution research——Taking Yunnan Province as an example. A time series of carbon emissions and carbon emissions intensity of Yunnan province1952-2010were established, and has carried on the correlation analysis. Finally, paper has an empirical study on the influence factors of carbon emissions. The fourth chapter, study on the judgment of the industrialization process——Taking Yunnan Province as an example. The paper judged the industrialization process using H. Chenery Multi Country model, a wide range of Simon Kuznets theorem, petty Clark theorem, and Chenery city development process. And paper determined the weight of each method in the industrialization process of judgment to the judgment of the industrialization process using the analytic hierarchy process, entropy method, based on the combined variance maximization of weighting method. And the paper analysis China’s industrialization trend in the next period of time. The fifth chapter, study on the function relationship model between industrialization and carbon emission——Taking Yunnan Province as an example. Based on the environmental Kuznets curve, the paper establishes the function relation model of industrialization and carbon emissions, and find out the relationship between them. The sixth chapter, study on forecast model of carbon emissions from energy consumption——Take Yunnan Province as an example. Using exponential smoothing method, system dynamics, combined with grey prediction three methods, and through the Shapley value method to determine the weight of each method, paper predicted the energy consumption of the future, and finded the the carbon emissions using the proportion of energy varieties with Markov chain. The seventh chapter, study on the early warning model of energy consumption and carbon emissions——Taking Yunnan Province as an example. By using the method of evidence theory and information fusion, paper makes the warning judgment on the carbon emission of Yunnan Province during2001-2010. The eighth chapter, paper studied on coping mechanism about carbon emissions of energy consumption in the process of industrialization. This paper mainly studied the coping mechanism about carbon emissions of energy consumption from the two aspects of system framework and operating system. The ninth chapter, conclusions and suggestions. The conclusions of the paper are summarized, some suggestions are given, and the future research is prospected.更多还原