【作者】 陶永亮；

【导师】 金祥荣； 曾道智；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 政治经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 经济系统在空间维度上的集聚和时间维度上的增长是经济发展过程中的两大基本特征,二者之间具有密切的联系。然而现有研究并未对空间集聚与经济增长的关系达成一致认识,此外,一些新的经验证据指出空间集聚与经济增长之间具有非线性关系,对此现有理论研究也没有给出让人满意的解释。另一方面,中国目前正处于重塑经济地理格局的关键时期,如何引导和规划区域经济版图才能实现动态效率与空间平等的兼顾具有重大意义,遗憾的是,现有研究对这一问题给出的回答也非常有限。本文的研究即以上述理论和现实背景为导向,构建新经济地理动态分析框架,尝试在同一框架内解释为什么在经济发展的过程中,空间集聚对经济增长的影响会发生改变,然后利用此框架对中国区域经济发展过程中面临的“动态效率与空间平等”的权衡问题展开讨论,最后引入中国城市层面的数据对提出的理论假说进行检验。本文首先按照现象——影响——政策效果的路径,对关于中国经济集聚的经验进行了全面的总结和研究。研究认为关于空间集聚与地区差距之间的关系已经达成了比较多的共识：人们逐渐认识到空间集聚是一种普遍现象,转移支付虽然在短期能够对缓解地区差距起到一定效果,但是从长远来看,消除控制商品和要素跨区域流动的制度性壁垒,促进商品和要素市场一体化才是关键。另一方面,现有研究对空间集聚和经济增长相互关系的看法还存在较多分歧,这部分内容也构成了本文重点研究的对象。针对空间集聚与经济增长之间关系存在的分歧,本文发展了一个综合三个维度区域壁垒的两区域动态模型,对以上分歧进行解释。研究发现区域一体化的程度对产业集聚和经济增长之间的关系有重要影响：当知识溢出水平比较低或者资本流动性较低时,产业集聚促进经济增长；当知识溢出水平比较高并且资本流动性也很高时,产业集聚不利于经济增长。更进一步的,鉴于产业集聚程度也由区域一体化程度内生决定,本文又分析了不同维度的区域一体化对经济系统的影响。此外作为本文理论模型的一个应用,我们利用本文的模型对中国当前所面临的空间平等与动态效率的权衡问题进行了分析。研究发现当知识溢出比较弱的时候,如果产业集聚对增长的促进作用足够强,那么欠发达地区居民也有可能因为集聚获利；当知识溢出比较强的时候,产业过度集中对增长的负面作用很大,甚至欠发达地区和发达地区居民福利都有可能因此而受损。在两区域模型的基础上,结合中国区域经济发展中存在的国际化和对内开放特征,本文进一步建立了两国三地区的动态模型。研究发现对内开放始终有利于产业向本国集聚同时促进增长,对外开放对产业分布和经济增长的影响则依赖于母国规模、对内开放水平和国际化程度呈现不同的变化趋势。从对社会福利的影响来看,对内开放有利于母国各地区居民福利的提升,可以缩小地区差距,此外,如果此项政策对经济增长的促进作用足够强,外国居民也有可能因此而受益。对外开放在国际化的初期阶段有利于各地居民福利的提高,但当国际化达到较高水平而对内开放仍处于较低水平时,继续提升对外开放则有可能使各个地区居民都蒙受损失。最后,本文采用2003-2011年中国286个地级城市的数据,通过构建两种不同的集聚指标,对空间集聚与经济增长的关系及其二者关系发生变化的原因进行了实证检验。研究证实空间集聚对中国城市经济增长具有非线性效应：以人均国内生产总值4.57万元为临界点,当经济发展水平处于临界点之下时,集聚促进增长；当经济发展水平处于临界点之上时,集聚不利于增长。在此基础上,本文进一步对空间集聚非线性效应产生的机制展开了研究,研究发现在经济发展的过程中,随着交通基础设施的改善、移动电话普及率提高以及科研人员占总人口比重增加,将会提升区域间知识溢出的水平,从而削弱集聚对增长的促进作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Spatial concentration and growth are the two features of economy, which are usually closely connected with each other. However, current studies have not yet reached a consensus on the relationship between them. In addition, the new evidence of their relationship, namely the non-linear relation, is also not explained with satisfactory. In China, it is now at a crucial phase of reshaping its economic geography. The question of how to guide and plan its regional economic geography influences not only the coordination of regional development, but also the sustainable growth of Chinese economy. However, few studies have touched upon the problem. Faced with the current situation, the present paper firstly established a dynamic framework on the basis of new economic geography, then tried to explain why the influence of spatial concentration on economic grow changes in economic development within the framework, then discussed the balancing problem of dynamic efficiency and spatial equality in China, and finally tested the proposed hypothesis by data of cities in China.The paper first analyzed the experience of economic agglomeration in China by "phenomenon-influence-policy effect", and compared it with international experience. It is found that there were some shared opinions of the relationship between spatial concentration and regional disparity:it is gradually acknowledged that spatial concentration is quite common; though in the short-term transferred payment could relieve regional disparity, in the long-term, it is crucial to promote the integration of product and factor markets by eliminating the policy barriers of the interregional exchange of products and factors. Besides, since many different opinions of the relationship between spatial concentration and economic growth still exist, the paper also discussed the relation between the two.For conflict between spatial agglomeration and economic growth, this paper develops a two-region dynamic model with regional barrier from three sources to explain the above differences. The study found that degree of regional integration has an important influence on relationship between industrial agglomeration and economic growth:When knowledge spillover or lower capital mobility is at a low level, industry agglomeration promotes economic growth; when knowledge spillover and capital flow are relatively higher, industrial agglomeration hinders economic growth. Further, given the degree of industrial agglomeration is also endogenously determined by regional integration, this paper analyzes the impact of varied regional integrations on economic systems. In addition, as an application of theoretical models, we use the model in this paper analyzing the balancing efforts between spatial equality and dynamic efficiency currently faced by China. The study found that knowledge spillovers are weak, the less developed areas benefit from agglomeration if industrial agglomeration strongly promotes the economic growth; otherwise welfare of the less developed areas decrease if industrial growth is excessively concentrated with considerable negative effects.On the basis of two-region model, we further establish two-country three-region dynamic model, which characterizes coexists of internationalization and open-up of China’s regional economy. The study found that open-up has always been in favor of promoting industrial agglomeration while encouraging growth. The impact of open-up on industrial distribution and economic growth depends on size of home country, open-up level and degree of internationalization. With influences on social welfare, open-up of a country enhances the welfare of all residents, reduces regional disparities. In addition, if the policy of open-up is strong enough, foreign residents also benefit from it. Opening in early stages of internationalization helps improve welfare in a country, but achieves negative effects on welfare when a higher level of internationalization and a lower level of open-up is coexisting.Finally, the paper introduces an empirical model examining relationship between special agglomeration and economic growth based on census of286cities from2003-2911. The study suggests that spatial concentration of Chinese urban economy has a nonlinear effect:with45,700RMB per capita GDP as a critical point, special agglomeration promotes growth when per capita GDP is lower than the point; however agglomeration discourages growth when per capita GDP is higher than the point. The paper further examined nonlinear effects of spatial agglomeration mechanism and found that improvement of transportation infrastructure, mobile phones and proportion of researchers in total population enhances the level of inter-regional knowledge spillovers, and thus weakens the role of agglomeration in promote growth.更多还原