中国—东盟经济一体化的效应、进程及影响机制分析

【作者】 麻昌港；

【导师】 蒋伏心；

【作者基本信息】 南京师范大学 ， 空间经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 自从2010年中国-东盟自由贸易区初步建成以来,中国和东盟的贸易额不断增长,经济合作不断加强,中国-东盟经济一体化不断向前推进。面对中国-东盟区域的发展新需求,我们不由得关注如下问题：为什么我们要进一步推进中国-东盟经济一体化的进程?当前中国-东盟经济一体化程度如何?影响一体化的因素有哪些?我们如何积极推进中国-东盟经济一体化的进程?围绕上述问题,本文按照如下逻辑进行阐发：第一,通过文献综述,理清本文研究的相关理论线索,分别从区域经济一体化、中国-东盟经济一体化、贸易引力模型、空间经济学和中国-东盟自由贸易区的进展等五个方面进行系统的梳理；然后从空间经济学的视角,构建FC扩展模型——三国自由资本模型,来分析区域经济一体化的效应问题,从而解答了第一个问题。第二,通过构建贸易、投资一体化指标体系和金融一体化的指标体系,采用国际对比研究方法,综合运用贸易引力模型和其他模型,对当前中国-东盟贸易一体化、金融一体化发展程度以及影响中国-东盟贸易、投资一体化和金融一体化的原因进行实证分析,并进一步运用贸易政治经济学的原理分析了双边关系和中国-东盟贸易一体化之间的关系,从而回答了第二个、第三个问题。第三,通过前面五章的理论和实证分析,总结得出本文的基本结论,并据此提出推进中国-东盟经济一体化的建议和措施。本文的基本结论如下：(一)RTA效应。成立RTA会从根本上影响全球经济的空间分布,资本和贸易更多的转向RTA；其次,在RTA成员国之间利益分配从整体上更偏向大区域。(二)中国-东盟贸易一体化的影响因素。全球性的经济衰退、世界GDP增长率和中国GDP增长率导致了中国-东盟贸易一体化程度的下降,而东盟地区的GDP增长率、平均关税率的下降、中国和东盟的经济规模以及上一期的贸易一体化程度均不同程度的提高了中国-东盟贸易一体化的程度。(三)双边关系和贸易一体化、投资一体化。中国-东盟双边关系对贸易一体化产生一定的滞后影响,且双边关系越紧密,双边的贸易总额或贸易份额越大,因而贸易一体化程度也越高；中国-东盟双边关系对投资一体化产生一定的影响,双边关系越紧密,双边投资总额或区域内双边投资份额也越大,投资一体化发展程度也越高。(四)中国-东盟金融一体化的影响因素。金融一体化程度主要受到金融一体化程度本身的滞后一期、贸易依存度以及区内贸易额占区域总贸易额比重的影响,计量结果还进一步揭示了区域贸易和区域金融一体化之间的关系：中国-东盟金融一体化和区域贸易之间存在正效应还是负效应主要取决于区域外部的贸易比重和区域内部贸易比重的大小变动情况。本文的主要创新之处是：第一,以空间经济学作为理论基础,将自由资本模型发展成为三国自由资本模型,并相继分析RTA的FDI转移效应和贸易转移效应；第二,构建区域贸易一体化的指标体系并进行实证分析,并运用贸易引力模型对贸易一体化以及投资一体化的影响因素进行计量分析；第三,运用贸易政治经济学理论,分析阐述了国际贸易的政治因素影响传导机制,并首次运用扩展的贸易引力模型对双边关系和贸易一体化的关系进行定量研究分析；第四,建立区域金融一体化的指标体系对中国一东盟金融一体化的发展现状进行分析,并建立基本计量模型对区域贸易和金融一体化之间的关系进行实证分析研究；第五,采用国际对比研究的方法,将中国-东盟经济一体化研究置于国际视野之中进行。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since2010China-ASEAN free trade area has been basically completed, the volume of trade between China and ASEAN is growing, economic cooperation is strengthening, the economic integration of China-ASEAN is developing in depth.In the face of the new needs of the development of China-ASEAN Region, we cannot but pay close attention to the following questions:why do we need to further promote the economic integration process of Chinese-ASEAN? How is the currency of the economic integration degree of Chinese-ASEAN? Which factors can impact the integration? How can we promote process of the economic integration of China-ASEAN?Rounding the problems given above, this paper will be made discussion by the logic analysis given below:Firstly, through the literature review, clarifying the relevant theoretical clues of this research, taken a systematically Carding respectively from the five aspects of the regional economic integration, Chinese-ASEAN economic integration, gravity model of trade, spatial economics and progresses of the Free Trade Area of Chinese-ASEAN; then from the viewpoint of Spatial Economics, set up the extensional FC model--footloose capital model of three countries to analyze the effect of regional economic integration, and to answer the first question.Secondly, through the construction of index system of the trade integration, investment integration and financial integration, using the research methods of international comparison, synthetically using of trade Gravity Model and other models, made the empirical analysis on the current development degree and the influence factors of trade integration, investment integration and financial integration of Chinese-ASEAN and influence China ASEAN trade, and further using the principle of political economics of trade to analyze the relationship of bilateral relations and the trade integration of Chinese-ASEAN.Thirdly, through the theoretical and empirical analysis of the previous four chapters, summing up the basic conclusions drawn in this paper hence put forward the suggestions and measures to promote the economic integration of Chinese-ASEAN.The main conclusions of this paper are as following:(1) The establishment of RTA will fundamentally affect the distribution of global economic space, more capital and trade turning to RTA; Interest’s distribution among RTA members will be more apt to large area overall.(2) The effect factors of the trade integration in China-ASEAN.The global recession and the GDP growth rate of world and China leads to the declining of the degree of trade integration of China-ASEAN, while GDP growth rate of ASEAN region and the declining of the average tariff rate, the economic scale of China and ASEAN and the previous period of the degree of trade integration increase the degree of trade integration of China-ASEAN in different degree.(3) Bilateral relations and trade integration and investment integration.Bilateral relations of China-ASEAN has certain effects on trade integration and show somewhat lag period of these effects, and the closer bilateral relations are, the larger the total trade or trade share is, hence the degree of the trade integration is higher; Bilateral relations of China-ASEAN has certain effects on investment integration, and the closer bilateral relations are, the larger the total foreign investment or the share of bilateral foreign investment are, the degree of the trade integration is higher.(4) The effect factors of the financial integration of China-ASEAN.The degree of financial integration are mainly affected by the one lag period of the degree of financial integration itself, the dependence of foreign trade and the share of regional trade accounted for the regional total trade, Measurement results also further reveals the relationship between regional trade and regional financial integration:the positive effects or negative effects between the financial integration of China-ASEAN and regional trade is mainly depended on the size changes of the proportion of trade of outside of the region and intra trade proportion of the region.The main innovations of this paper are as following:firstly, it is based on the theory of spatial economics, expanded the footloose capital model into footloose capital model of three countries, and analyzed the effects of FDI transfer and trade diversion about RTA in succession; Secondly, established the indices system of the trade integration of region and made empirical analysis, and taken a quantitative analysis on the influencing factors of trade integration and investment integration by the gravity model of trade; Thirdly, apply the theory of political economy of trade, made an analysis and elaborating the transmission mechanism of the influence of the political factors of international trade, and using the extended gravity model of trade to quantitatively analysis the relation between the bilateral relations and trade integration on the first time; Fourthly, established the indices system of the finance integration of region to make an analysis on the development status of the finance integration of China-ASEAN, and set up a basic measurement model to make an empirical analysis on the relation between the regional trade and finance integration; fifthly, it is using the comparative research method, the taken analytic research on the economic integration of China-ASEAN amongst in international vision; fifthly, it is using the comparative research method, the taken analytic research on the economic integration of China-ASEAN amongst in international vision; Fifthly, using the comparative research method, taken the analytic research on the economic integration of China-ASEAN amongst in the international vision.更多还原