管理决策的选择性预期有效性研究

【作者】 郭新强；

【导师】 盛宇华；

【作者基本信息】 南京师范大学 ， 决策学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 现代企业可持续发展的一个关键因素是企业决策者高质量的决策,而决策者能否形成高质量决策的关键因素之一是决策者的决策预期的合理性。自决策行为存在以来,决策预期就伴随着其产生发展,但研究者对决策预期的关注和研究却是伴随着现代经济的发展而逐步关注和研究的。从马歇尔开始人们才逐步关注和研究决策的预期,并形成了一些简单的预期理论。凯恩斯将预期在经济决策中的重要性进行了系统的阐述,并由此形成了其相关理论,使得预期在经济决策过程中的作用变得举足轻重。凯恩斯之后,人们又对预期进行了一系列的研究,形成了在现代决策中具有重大影响的理性预期理论。在对既往预期理论进行梳理分析之后发现,学者们虽然从不同的角度对预期进行了相关的研究,并形成了一系列的相关理论。但对预期的影响因素却没有进行系统阐述和研究,到底哪些因素在预期形成过程中起着关键性的作用,决策者在决策形成过程中需要重点关注哪些问题。从马歇尔的预期理论、凯恩斯的预期理论到现代的理性预期理论,研究者们只是将预期的影响因素一带而过,将预期的影响因素简单归结为一种或几种因素,并未进行深入的分析、探讨、研究。在对现有文献研究的基础上结合现代决策者现实的决策预期的相关行为进行分析研究之后,认为预期是在一定的情景之下的预期。预期的形成和发展是一种动态化的过程,由此提出选择性预期的基本概念。系统分析了选择性预期的形成机制和影响因素,提出选择性预期与理性预期越接近就越合理的基本观点。认为决策情景、决策综合性、决策速度、高管认知性、决策程序理性是影响选择性预期的关键因素,并提出影响选择性预期的七个假设。根据七个假设设计出选择性预期形成因素的相关因子,有针对性地选择企业具有决策权的高级管理人员进行问卷等相关形式的调查,进行实证分析和研究。研究之后发现,这七个假设有五个假设在现实的企业决策中确实是影响决策者选择性预期的关键因素。突破以往理论,本研究提出选择性预期的基本理念,系统分析选择性预期的形成机制和影响因素。从而提出决策者在决策预期形成过程中要重点关注这些影响预期的关键因素并最终形成合理的选择性预期,形成高质量的决策。更多还原

【Abstract】 One of the key factors of modern enterprise’s sustainable development is the high-quality decisions made by decision makers. One of the key factors of whether the decision makers can form high-quality decisions depends on the reasonableness of their decision expectations. Since the existence of decision making, decision expectation is always along with its emergence and development. With the development of modern economy, researchers begin to pay attention to and study the decision expectations. From the beginning of Marshall’s study, People gradually pay their attention to study this topic and form some simple theories on expectations. Cairns has made a systematic description on the significance of expectation in economic decision making and formed some related theories, which earns expectation a very important role in economic decision making process. Since then, people have made a series of researches to expectations and thus formed the rational expectation theory which has great influence on the modern decision making.After the analyses on the past expectation theories, the author finds that although scholars have studied the expectation theories from different perspectives and formed a series of related theories, they haven’t made systematic description and study on the factors which influence expectations and they don’t know which factors play important roles in the forming of expectation and on which problems they should focus their attention in the forming of decision making. From Marshall, Cairns to modern rational expectation theories, researchers have slid over the factors or simply boiled down to one or more factors and they haven’t made deep analyses, discussions or researches.Based on the present literature review and the analyses on the related behavior of decision makers’ expectation, the author concludes that expectations form in certain situations and the existence and development of expectation is a dynamic process. Therefore, the author puts forward the basic concepts on selective expectations and makes systematic analyses on their forming and influential factors. The author believes that the closer the selective expectations are to the rational expectations, the more reasonable they are. At the same time, the author thinks that the key factors which influence the selective expectations are situation, integration, speed, executive cognition and the reasonableness of the program. Then, the author puts forward seven hypotheses on the selective expectations. On the basis of these hypotheses and factors, the author has made a questionnaire and conducted surveys on senior managers in some enterprises. After putting survey data into computer and making empirical analyses on these data with the help of certain related computer software, the author finds that these hypotheses are the real key factors which influence the modern enterprise decision makers when they make decisions in reality.Breaking through the past theories, the author puts forwards the basic concepts of selective expectations, makes systematic analyses of forming and influential factors and suggests that the decision makers should pay special attention to these factors when they make their expectations. Only in this way can they make high quality decisions.更多还原