【作者】 沙彦飞；

【导师】 盛宇华；

【作者基本信息】 南京师范大学 ， 决策学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 面对模糊、不确定和相互冲突的需求,以及承受的巨大压力,企业家必须做出正确的决策。相对于企业家心理世界的复杂性和战略决策的重要性说,决策过程的那种纯理性或纯学术描述与计算显得不够现实,而那种纯直觉或纯经验忠告与猜测则显得不够可信。应对不同决策情境确立适应性心理标准是企业家决策的基本内在机制,也是实现高效决策的关键环。无论是最优决策理论还是满意决策理论,都未能很好地描述企业家决策现实状况。就最优化决策理论而言,最优标准的确定只适用于标准化、抽象化环境,这对经常面临高度不确定性的企业家来说,最优标准只是一个虚幻的、难以企及的标准。西蒙(H. A. Simon)因其决策理论荣获1978年度诺贝尔经济学奖,他提出了“有限理性”与“满意标准”理论,深刻批判了最优决策理论。但是,西蒙把满意标准直接运用到现实选择中,仍然存在一定的理理论缺陷。最低满意标准如何确定,满意是否具有程度性,不同主体的满意程度是否以及为什么存在差别,同一主体的满意标准为什么以及如何变化,这些同题都值得进一步探讨,需要得到再解释。西蒙力图用一个难以确定的“满意值”去否定一个不可能确定的“最优值”。同样卡尼曼(Kahneman)、Gigerenzetr、 Sarasvathy等西蒙理论继承者们,也未能清楚地阐述“满意标准”的构成与形成机理。面对复杂的、高度不确定的决策情境,企业家有效决策的关键是关注、识别、选择合适的心理因素作为决策的心理标准。本文在理论分析、理论继承与批评基础上,提炼出“决策心理锚”这一核心概念。从理论与实践两方面,论证其存在性,剖析其内在结构,探讨其运行机理。决策心理锚是企业家决策的心理标准结构,由体现企业家决策本质特征的决策意志、决策预期和决策能力所构成。企业家决策为“决策心理锚”所锚定。决策意志主要有决策的成就导向与自控性两维度,决策预期主要有决策的信心与机会感知两维度,决策能力主要有决策的责任力与创造力两维度。通过理论探讨和实证分析,本文主要得出以下结论：(1)企业家决策心理锚是高阶的“三因素-双维度”结构,企业家至少存在三种类型：决策意志型、决策预期型和决策能力型,这在16名知名企业家的质性研究中得到验证。(2)验证性因素分析显示,决策心理锚内在结构“六因子"模型和“三因子”模型的拟合效果不相上下,均为良好的结构,而单因子竞争模型的拟合结构则逊色许多。(3)决策意志、决策预期和决策能力各自对风险决策行为具有正向影响,其中决策预期的影响力度更大。决策心理锚对风险决策行为的整体影响程度要高于其构成要素的部分影响。本文尝试性的创新可归纳为：(1)提出核心概念。企业家决策心理锚是企业家决策的心理标准结构,企业家会关注决策方案是否符合其意志水平,是否具有一定的预期利益,是否可行。(2)系统性整合企业家决策行为理论。以多学科理论为理论支撑,以多种研究方法为技术支撑,整合并丰富了企业家决策行为理论研究。(3)运用"Vivo中编码”分析技术。从互联网中采集最新的信息资料,借助于NVivo最新版本NVivo10.0中的"Vivo中编码”技术,较全面和客观地分析了企业家决策心理特征,这与传统的手工式、“先入为主”式编码技术是完全不同的。(4)提出企业家决策心理锚评估模型。以决策心理锚的三标准因素的不同组合方式,构建评估企业家决策心理锚的“三维八分”模型,为评估企业家决策心理锚提供一种分析框架和基本方法。决策心理锚理论是对西蒙满意决策理论的继承与发展,比较科学地解释了满意标准的构成与发生机理,也有效地回答了“马奇问题”。决策心理锚概念的提出,可帮助决策者正确认知与调适决策心理,使其决策达到满意状态,接近最优决策。也可对企业家进行培训与指导,使其愿意承受更大的风险来从事创新事业。囿于自身学力不足,本研究尚存诸多不足,寄望于未来之深入探究。更多还原

【Abstract】 The entrepreneurs must make right decisions facing fuzzy, uncertain, conflicting requirements and bearing huge pressure. Relative to complexity of psychological world of entrepreneurs and importance of strategic decisions, the pure rationality or academic description and computation of decision-making process are unrealistic, and the kinds of pure intuition or experient advice and speculation are unreliable. To establish adaptive and psychological standard is the basic mechanism and also the key link in the process of efficient decision to cope with different decision situations.Both the optimal decision theory and the satisfactory decision theory failed to describe entrepreneurs’decision-making reality well. In terms of the optimal decision theory, the determination of the optimal standard is only applicable to standardization and abstract environment.and the optimal standard is just a fantasy and beyond theoretical margin because entrepreneurs often face a high degree of uncertainty. Simon (H.A.S imon) was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics for its decision making theory in1978. He proposed the theories of’bounded rationality" and " satisfactory standard" to criticize the theory of optimal decision. However, Simon’s satisfaction standard directly was applied to the realistic choice, However.there are still some certain theoretical defects. How to determine the lowest satisfactory standard. How to determine the degree of satisfactory standard? Whether satisfactory standard has degree level?Whether and why is there a difference among the different main body? Why and how satisfactory standard of the same subject change?These problems are worth further discussing and explaining. Simon was trying to use a certain satisfactory value to deny optimal value which was impossible to determine. Kahneman (Kahneman), Gigerenzer and Sarasvathy heired Simon theory.and they also failed to clearly expounded the composition and formation mechanism of " satisfactory standard ".In the face of complex, highly uncertain situations, it is vital for the entrepreneur to foucs,dentify and select the appropriate psychological factors to make criteria decisions effectively. In this paper, on the basis of theoretical analysis, inheritance and criticism,we extract the core concept of "psychological anchor of decision". From theory and practice, we prove its existence, analyze its internal structure, discuss its operational mechanism. Entrepreneurs’"psychological anchor of decision" is the structure of psychological standard and embodies the substitutive characteristics of entrepreneur’s decision. It is composed by the decision-making will, decision-making expection and decision-making ability. And it anchors the behavior of entrepreneurs’ decision. Achievement orientation and self-control are mainly two dimensions of decision-making will. Confidence and opportunity are mainly two dimensions of decision-making expection. Responsibility force and creativity force are mainly two dimensions of decision-making ability.Some important results and conclusions are presented as follow:(1) the psychological anchor of decision of entrepreneurs is the high order structure of "three factors-double dimensions". There are at least three types of entrepreneur:decision-making will decision-making expection and decision-making ability. It was verified in a qualitative study on the sixteen well-known entrepreneurs.(2) The analysis of confirmatory factor shows that the "six factors" and "three factors" model of fitting effect of inner structure of the psychological anchor of decision are close. Both are good structure, and fitting effect of competition model of single factor is much less.(3) Decision-making will, decision-making expection and decision-making ability have a positive influence on risk decision-making behavior, while decision-making expection has greater influence. The overall impact of psychological anchor of decision on risk decision-making behavior is higher than its component part.In this paper, the trial innovation can be summarized as:(1) The core concepts are put forward, psychological anchor of decision is structure of psychological standard. Entrepreneurs will focus on whether decision-making plan is in line with the will whether it has a certain expected benefits, whether it is workable.(2) We Systematicly integrate the theory of entrepreneurs’decision-making behavior. We integrate and enrich the theory of entrepreneurs’ decision-making behavior supported by Multidisciplinary theory and a variety of research methods.(3) Using the analysis technology of "code in Vivo". We hane collected the latest information from the Internet. By the analysis technology of "code in Vivo" of latest version NVivo10.0, we have analyzed comprehensively and objectively the entrepreneurial psychological characteristics.It is completely different from the traditional manual and "pre-conceived" coding technology.(4)The evaluation model of psychological anchor of decision is put forward. We have built the evaluation model of "three dimensional-eight branches" of psychological anchor of decision by using different combinations of the three psychological standard factors. We have provided a framework and basic method of analysis to assess the psychological anchor of decision.The theory of psychological anchor of decision is the succession and development of Simon’s decision theory. It scientifically explains the composition and mechanism of satisfactory standard. It also effectively answers the" problem of march". We can help entrepreneurs to cognize and djust decision-making mind correctly. We can help entrepreneurs to achieve satisfactory states which is close to optimal decision. We can also train and guid entrepreneurs to take more risk of Innovation.Conditioned by professional qualification, there are some deficiencies in this study. Hope the further exploration in the future.更多还原