【作者】 叶松；

【导师】 吕谋；

【作者基本信息】 青岛理工大学 ， 结构工程， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 水是城市生存和发展的生命线，是保障城市正常发展和社会稳定的基本要素。城市系统与水环境之间存在着相互补充和相互制约的辩证关系。一方面，城市系统不断从水环境中汲取水资源用于城市中人类的生产与生活活动；另一方面，又向水环境中释放着人类生产活动的副产物——污染物，而城市系统就是在这种相互作用的关系中不断向前发展。近年来，受到工农业生产规模的扩大、城市人口激增和环境恶化等因素的影响，我国绝大多数城市的水环境呈现出不断恶化的发展趋势。同时，重大突发性水环境污染事件频发，给原本就脆弱的水环境体系带来了新的威胁，并对经济、社会和生态系统造成了巨大的损失。当前，我国许多城市已经开展了城市供水安全防范的研究，分析风险因素，制定应对方案和应急预案，以求将水环境污染风险降低到最低。但是，由于不同地区的地理位置不同，气候条件和水文状况不同，城市水厂净水工艺和原水状况不同，甚至由于不同地区经济发展特点不同导致的水体特征污染物的不同，应对水体污染风险的措施自然也不一样，很难形成一套适应于某一类区域成熟有效的安全防范体系。因此，需要针对研究目标的城市，建立符合目标城市供水系统特点的安全防范体系。本文以华北地区某城市水源水和城市供水管网系统为研究对象，针对其水环境的实际情况，结合国内外的研究成果，重点展开水环境风险评价和水环境安全水平变化趋势分析与预警的研究，尝试建立基于城市供水系统水质安全评价模型的供水系统风险预警体系，并将体系应用于目标案例的实践之中，以判断体系的适用性。主要研究内容如下：建立水库原水水质风险评价模型。针对案例水库水质富营养化状况，采用基于层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process，AHP)的模糊综合评价方法对水质富营养化水平进行综合评价，分析其潜在风险和不利因素，并最终构建目标水库富营养化风险评价系统界面。研究结果表明案例水源水近年来水质状况良好，每年夏季会出现水质低潮，原因是由于温度的升高以及氮含量的升高，诱发了水体藻类大量繁殖，因此针对案例水源水含氮量高的风险隐患，提出预警响应。城市供水系统水质安全评价体系的构建。通过对案例城市供水系统特点的分析，建立针对该城市供水系统的安全评价指标体系，并根据改进的网络分析法(Analytic Network Process，ANP)确定指标体系权重，并利用模糊综合评价法对案例城市供水系统进行整体性综合评价和单管评价。评价结果表明虽然案例城市管网和管段总体安全性能差强人意，但是存在较大的风险隐患，主要由于管道铺设年代久远，腐蚀严重，造成水压、水质安全水平下降。以此评价结果为依据，结合管网最优化技术研究，对目标城市管网进行模拟改造，并将改造结果进行对比评价分析，评估改造后的效果，为城市供水系统管网改造提供理论依据和技术支持，同时构建以ANP法为基础的城市供水系统安全评价界面。通过对水库原水水质风险评价体系和城市供水系统安全评价体系的研究，构建出适用于我国北方地区区域水环境安全评价体系模型，并以此为基础建立起成熟的水环境安全评价系统。以水环境安全评价系统为核心，以水质变化趋势预测研究为有效补充，以水环境安全应急预案为措施，构建水环境风险预警系统，并将预警系统实施于目标案例的实践之中。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water is the essential protection of social stability and development, which is lifeline ofdevelopment and existence of cities. There is an interaction and mutual complementary dialecticalrelationship between city system and water environment. On one hand, city system absorbsresources for production and living; On the other hand, it releases water pollutants to theenvironment. And then city ecosystem grows under the action of the relationship. With theinfluence of rapid development of production, explosion of population and environmentaldegradation, environment of the major of cities in China have had a deteriorating trend recently.Simultaneously, sudden severe pollution incidents frequently happened, which brought new threatto fragile water environment, and caused great losses to economic system, society and ecosystem.Currently, domestic cities have started water environment security research, analyzed of riskfactors, and developed response programs to achieve to minimize risk. However, due to differentlocation, climate and hydrological conditions, raw water conditions and purification process ofwater plants are different. And then, different economic characteristics causing differentcharacteristics of pollutants, naturally, pollution response measures are different. It is difficult tomake an adaptable and mature security system. Therefore, it is necessary to build security systemconsistent with its water environment characteristic. The article takes water supply system of acity and source water of another city in Huabei Area as examples to start water environment safetyevaluation research and trend early warning research in order to try to set up water environmentearly warning system based on safety evaluation model. And put it into practice to judge itsapplicability. The main contents of research are as follows:A new risk evaluation model will be set up for raw water. According to eutrophicationcondition of reservoir in case, utilize fuzzy comphrensive evaluation based on analytic hierarchyprocess to assess raw water eutrophication condition. After analyzing potential risks and negativefactors, eutrophication evaluation interface of reservoir will be set up in case. As is a result that theraw water quality in case is in a good condition, but low tide happens in every summer, which isbecause of temperatures rising and the total nitrogen rising induces bloom of alga in waterreservoir. And then, according to high nitrogen content’s potential risk, warning response should be proposed.Water quality safety evaluation system will be set up for urban water supply system. Byanalysis of characteristic of water supply system of city in case, index system is built and weightsof that is determined by analytic network process. Then, make use of fuzzy comprehensiveevaluation method to assess water supply system in case, which is shown that, although the resultsare passable, some potential risks do exist, such as aging pipe network, which lead to abnormalpressure and deterioration of water quality. According to the evaluation results, simulatedtransformation for water supply system in case is proposed and combining with optimizationtechnology. Furthermore, evaluate the transformation result, which will supply transformation forurban water supply system with theoretical basis and technological support. And set up safetyevaluation interface of urban water supply system based on analytic network process.By studying risk evaluation model for raw water and water quality safety evaluation systemfor urban water supply system, a water environment safety evaluation model is set up, which isapplicable for Regional water environment of northern region in China, on basis of which themature water environment safety evaluation system is built.Take water environment safety evaluation system as a core, supplemented by trend forecastfor water quality, combining with emergency plans, and set up water environment risks earlywarning system, which will be put into practice.更多还原