【作者】 范成方；

【导师】 史建民；

【作者基本信息】 山东农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 粮食安全问题是中国农业的主题，亦是关系经济发展、社会稳定和国家安全的重大战略问题。粮食种植效益是粮食安全的关键和核心，也是涉农领域的基础性问题。山东省是全国粮食主产省之一，切实有效地抑制山东省粮食种植成本过快上涨，提高种植效益，有助于增加粮农收入，提升山东省粮食在国内粮食市场乃至国际粮食市场的竞争力，保障国家粮食安全。因此，研究山东省粮食种植效益具有重要的理论意义和现实价值。本论文运用比较分析、统计分析、计量经济分析以及系统综合评价分析等研究方法，对山东省粮食种植效益进行了深入分析。论文共七章，可分为五部分：一是理论分析（第1、2章），包括绪论、概念界定与理论阐释；二是山东省粮食种植成本收益的系统分析（第3、4章），包括山东省粮食种植成本分析、收益分析；三是山东省粮食种植成本收益与生产状况变动关系分析（第5章），包括种植成本与播种面积的关系分析及种植收益与产量的关系分析；四是山东省粮食种植效益比较分析及综合评价（第6章）；五是研究结论与对策建议（第7章），在对粮食种植效益面临的突出问题及其潜在影响进行深入分析的基础上，提出提高粮食种植效益的对策建议。研究表明：新阶段山东省粮食种植呈现成本高、上升快的显著特征。农业经营规模、农田水利设施建设、人工成本、土地成本、能源价格主导型成本以及种子费是推动粮食种植成本上升的主要因素。在这些因素的综合作用下，2013-2017年山东省粮食种植成本将持续加速增长。相对于全国平均水平，不论从基于现金和实物支出的单位面积成本看还是从基于实际和虚拟支出的单位面积成本看，山东省玉米种植单位面积成本相对优势显著，小麦种植单位面积成本相对劣势显著。相对于蔬菜及苹果，山东省粮食种植单位面积成本具有显著优势，单位产品成本不具优势（除玉米相对苹果具有单位产品成本优势外）。山东省粮食种植收益呈快速上升趋势。单产是促进粮食种植收益提高的第一位因素，但粮食种植收益持续增加不能单方面的完全依赖粮食增产，增产仅仅是致使增收的途径之一。价格是提高粮食种植收益的第二位因素。物质与服务费用是阻碍粮食种植收益增长的重要因素，尤其是化肥费、机械作业费、种子费及排灌费。三大因素的综合作用致使2013-2017年山东省粮食种植收益将持续加速增长，并且玉米的净收益始终高于小麦。相对于全国平均水平，山东省粮食种植单位面积及单位产品收益相对优势显著。现金收益依然是增加其人均家庭经营纯收入的主要途径之一，但是其他经营方式亦可以使粮农获取更高的收入，并且已经越来越成为粮农增加收入的重要途径。相对于蔬菜及苹果，山东省粮食种植单位面积收益劣势显著且趋向扩大；相对蔬菜的单位产品收益劣势在缩小，相对苹果的单位产品收益劣势趋向扩大。山东省粮食相对美国粮食具有显著的单位面积收益优势及单位产品收益优势；玉米种植单位面积总成本具有显著的相对优势，小麦种植单位面积总成本则不具优势。美国的“高成本、低价格”与山东省的“低成本、高价格”相互矛盾，主要原因在于美国粮食种植损失的弥补及利润的赢得关键在于政府的各种直接及间接补贴，山东省与美国粮食补贴差距较大致使价格出现较大差异。山东省通过采取提高粮食最低收购价格、增加粮食直接补贴及提高农资市场发育程度等各种有效措施来弥补成本上升所导致的种粮收益下降，提高了农户的种粮积极性，致使生产成本上涨的正向间接效应大于负向直接效应。因此，生产成本上涨对农户种粮行为的影响相对稳定，波动不大。尽管粮农依然具有较高的种粮积极性，但是粮食增产与种植收益增加不能持续协同发展，增产未必增收，增收亦未必增产，因此，为保障国家的粮食安全，应建立增产增收的有效联动机制，形成增产与增收的良性互动格局。从全国平均看，粮食生产的比较效益仍然相对较低，但是在农业内部，其比较效益并非均不断下降，其相对蔬菜的比较效益呈不断上升趋势，相对油料的比较效益呈不断下降趋势，相对苹果的比较效益大体不变。就山东省而言，粮食相对蔬菜的种植效益劣势在逐渐缩小，相对苹果的种植效益劣势总体上均呈快速上升趋势。山东省粮食种植效益相对同期全国平均水平优势显著，玉米种植效益呈直线下降趋势，小麦种植效益在波动中上升。为提高粮食种植效益，山东省政府应大力发展非农产业，加强农村土地流转市场的建设，大力推进粮食种植规模经营；提高粮食生产的产业化、组织化程度；加大粮食生产技术投入，提高科技对粮食生产的贡献率；综合运用多种调控手段抑制粮食种植成本快速上涨；完善粮食价格支持机制；继续完善粮食补贴政策；改革和创新农村金融体制，加大对粮食生产的信贷支持；加强农田水利基础设施建设。更多还原

【Abstract】 Food safety problem is subject of Chinese agriculture and a great strategy problem whichconcerns economic development、social stability and national security.Grain plant benefits isthe crux and heart of food safety and is also basic problem involving agriculture field.Shandong Province is a major production grain Province of the whole country. Effectivelycontrol grain plant cost excessive rise and raise plant benefits in Shandong Provincecontribute to increase grain producers’s income, promote Shandong Province grain’scompetitive forces in domestic and international grain market, and ensure national food safety.So a study on grain plant benefits in Shandong Province is of important theory significanceand real value.The paper apply comparative analysis、statistical analysis、economie de mesure analysisand system comprehensive evaluation analysis research method, make a depth analysis forgrain plant benefits in Shandong Province. The paper includes seven chapters, and can bedevided into five parts. Part one is theoretical analysis(Chapter1、2)，including introduction、specification and theory illustration. Part two is system analysis of grain plant cost income inShandong Province (Chapter3、4), including grain plant cost analysis、income analysis. Partthree is the variation relation analysis between grain plant cost income and productionsituation(Chanpter5), including relation analysis between plant cost and sown area、relationanalysis between plant income and output. Part four is grain plant benefits comparativeanalysis and comprehensive evaluation (Chapter6). Part five is research conclusion andcountermeasures (Chanper7), countermeasures of raising grain plant benefits are put forward,based on depth analysis of grain plant benefits’s outstanding issues and potential impact.Research indicating:New stage grain plant takes on marked characteristic of high cost and rapid rise inShandong Province. Agricultural scale of operation、 irrigation and water conservancyconstruction、labour cost、land cost、energy prices-centered cost and seed cost are majorfactors which push forward grain plant cost to rise. With these factors combined action,Shandong Province grain plant cost will constantly keep accelerated growth in2013-2017. From unit area cost based on cash and material object payment and unit area cost based onreality and virtual payment, corn plant unit area cost has conspicuous superiority relative tonational average level, wheat plant unit area cost has conspicuous inferiority relative tonational average level in Shandong Province. Grain plant unit area cost has conspicuoussuperiority and unit product cost has no superiority relative to vegetable and apple inShandong Province.(except corn has unit product superiority relative to apple).Grain plant income takes on rise speedly.Yield per unit area is the first factor that canpromote grain plant income to enhance, but grain plant income constant increase cann’t relyon grain increase production completely, increase product is barely one of increase incomeways.Price is the second factor which can promote grain plant income. Material and servicecost is important factor which encumbers grain plant income to increase, especially chemicalfertilizer cost、mechanical work cost、seed cost and drain and irrigate cost. Three majorfactors’s comprehensive action results in Shandong Province’s grain plant income toconstantly accelerated growth in2013-2017, and corn net income are higher than wheatthroughout. Grain plant unit area and unit product income have marked superiority relative tonational average level in Shandong Province. Cash income is still one major way that canincrease per capita family operation net income, but other type of operation can also bringgrain producers higher income, furthermore also be a important way of grain producersincrease income more and more. Grain plant unit area income inferiority is distinct and tendsto enlarge relative to vegetable and apple; unit product income inferiority relative to vegetableis narrowing, unit product income inferiority relative to apple tends to enlarge in ShandongProvince.Shandong Province grain has marked unit area and nuit product income superiorityrelative to American grain; corn plant unit area total cost has marked relative superiority, andwheat plant total cost has no superiority. American “high cost,low price” and ShandongProvince’s “low cost, hige price” is mutual contradiction, because the crux of American grainplant loss’s covering and profit’s gaining is government various direct and indirect allowance,greater allowance gap between Shandong Province and America render price biggishdifference.Shandong Province takes following several measures: enhancing grain lowest procurement price、 increasing grain direct allowance and raise agricultural means ofproduction market’s development level. The effective measures makes up plant incomedescent caused by cost rising, enhances grain producers’s initiative, results in production costrise’s positive indirect effect greater than negative direct effect. So product cost rise’sinfluence on plant behaviour is relative stability, fluctuation is lesser. Despite grain producersstill have higher production initiative, grain production increase cann’t constantly develop incoordination with plant income increase, increase production cann’t ensure increase income,and increase income cann’t ensure increase production. So increase production and increaseincome’s effective linkage mechanism should be build and form optimum interactiveframework to guarantee national food safety.The comparative benefits of grain production is still relative lower from the standpoint ofnational average.but its comparative benefits far less constantly descending interiorlyagriculture,its comparative benefits relative to vegetable tends to rise constantly, itscomparative benefits relative to oil tends to descend constantly, its comparative benefitsrelative to apple is stable. As for Shandong Province, grain plant benefits inferiority relative tovegetable is reducing gradually and benefits inferiority relative to apple takes on rise quickly.Shandong Province grain plant benefits has marked superiority relative to synchronismnational average level, corn plant benefits takes on straight line descend and wheat plantbenefits rises in the fluctuation.To raise grain plant benefits, Shandong Province should energetically developNon-Agricultural industry, strengthen struction of rural land turning market, vigorously pushon grain plant scale management; enhance grain production industrialization and systematismlevel; enlager grain production technique input, raise science and technology’s contrite rate tograin production; synthetically utilize a variety of regulate and control means to repress grainplant cost to rise rapidly; perfect grain price support mechanism; continue perfecting grainsubsidies policy; reform and innovate rural financial system, increase credit support to grainproduction; strengthen struction of irrigation and water conservancy infrastructure.更多还原