网络经济对我国居民消费的促进作用研究

【作者】 王鹏飞；

【导师】 韩保江；

【作者基本信息】 中共中央党校 ， 政治经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 消费作为拉动经济增长的三驾马车之一,在国民经济运行中具有重要地位。20世纪90年代以来,特别是本世纪国际金融危机爆发以来，扩大消费需求成为我国宏观调控的重要方向和目标。网络经济是生产者、消费者和其它市场主体以互联网等信息网络为联接平台从事经济活动的一种全新经济形态。随着信息技术的快速发展和互联网的普及应用，各市场主体通过网络联系为一体,经济运行和市场交易方式发生了革命性变化,显著提高了资源配置效率，改善了生产者和消费者的福利水平。网络经济的发展对传统经济提出了一系列挑战,在网络经济环境下，居民消费与传统消费相比出现了新变化。现有文献关于网络经济的发展和居民消费增长分别有大量的研究和论述，对我国居民网络消费的产生、发展和影响因素也有一定的研究，这些成果为本文的研究提供了丰富的素材和研究基础。然而，现有文献在网络经济理论和消费经济理论的结合研究方面还有待加强，国内外研究大多是从消费者和厂商的微观经济决策出发，研究消费者的网络消费行为特征和影响因素，研究厂商在面对网络应用普及和消费者消费渠道选择多元化的形势下，如何改变经营策略，取得有利的竞争地位。而较少从宏观和中观的理论角度，研究网络经济时代消费者面临的整体消费环境的变化，对我国居民网络消费的总体发展情况、网络经济发展对居民消费的促进及其作用机制研究不足，这也为本文的研究工作提供了探索的空间。按照现状——理论——实证——问题——对策的逻辑思路,本文构建起网络经济环境对我国居民消费需求促进作用的研究框架。论文首先总结回顾了近年来我国居民消费需求的变化情况并对现有消费促进政策进行了评价（第三章）。我国消费贡献率依然偏低，国际金融危机发生以来，为提高我国经济增长的内需动力，中央和地方政府实施了家电、汽车下乡和以旧换新等一系列促消费政策，挖掘居民费潜力，推动消费结构优化升级，从而有效扩大了城乡居民的即期消费需求规模。从已经实施的促消费政策具体效果来看，由于现存的体制性、制度性因素的制约，许多政策都只达到短期效果，其长效机制尚有待建立。特别需要指出的是，现有消费促进政策尚未充分考虑和重视网络经济环境对我国居民消费的深刻意义，对网络经济对居民消费的长远影响认识不足，因此基于网络经济环境的居民消费促进政策研究非常紧迫。论文总结了网络经济发展情况及其对我国经济发展的总体影响（第四章）。随着电子信息与互联网技术的普及，我国网络经济近年来迅猛发展，对生产、消费乃至公众生活都产生了深刻影响。网络经济已经成为我国经济转型升级的新引擎、工农业与服务业可持续协调发展的融合力、社会协同创新发展的推动力，发展网络经济成为我国提高国家竞争力的有效途径。论文从宏观和微观两个视角阐述了网络经济环境促进居民消费需求增长的作用机制（第五章）。从宏观角度看，网络经济发展促进居民收入增长，提高居民消费倾向，从而使消费函数曲线上移，释放了消费潜力，促进了消费需求增长。从微观角度看，网络经济环境改善了消费实现条件，降低了消费实现成本，从而改变了消费者在既定预算约束下的选择行为，增强了消费能力和持续消费愿望，增加了消费者剩余，提高了消费者福利水平。网络经济发展对就业和居民收入的促进作用（第六章）体现在：在相关产业领域提升了劳动力需求，优化了就业结构，为劳动者创业提供了广阔平台，扩大了劳动力因素在收入分配中的作用，促进居民工资性收入和经营性收入增长。在经济和社会发展过程中，居民消费倾向不是常数,而是因其他因素的变化而变化。网络经济环境对提高居民消费倾向的作用体现（第七章）在：在既定收入水平下，居民消费的实现需要一定的现实条件。在我国经济发展过程中，决定居民消费水平的各项因素并非均衡的增长，特别是一些非收入因素成为制约消费增长的瓶颈。由于市场信息不充分、购买机会有限及其它社会生活制约因素,我国居民的消费实现受到限制，实际消费水平低于消费者的实际购买力。网络经济发展使得制约我国居民消费增长的现实条件得到明显改善，促进了全国消费品市场和流通体系的一体化，从商流、物流、资金流等方面改善了有效供给条件，改变了我国居民特别是农村地区和落后地区居民消费受现实交易条件制约的情况，有助于释放居民消费潜力，提高居民总体消费倾向。在实证研究（第八章）中，论文选取了互联网普及率、网络购物渗透率和网上支付渗透率作为衡量网络经济环境的自变量，选取城镇居民消费倾向和农村居民消费倾向作为因变量。通过上述指标2002年-2013年的年度数据，建立了时间序列VAR模型。模型分析显示，网络经济发展水平与城镇、农村居民的消费倾向均是正相关的,互联网普及率的提高能够促进消费倾向的提高，从而在既定收入水平下促进居民消费需求的扩大。而互联网普及率与农村居民消费倾向的相关度明显高于城镇居民，说明网络经济环境对提高农村居民消费倾向的作用更为显著，推动农村地区互联网普及应用，对促进城乡居民消费均衡发展具有重要意义。论文分析了网络经济环境下制约消费增长的问题（第九章），包括：网络创业就业面临制度和政策“盲区”、网络消费应用的广度和深度不够、消费实现的支撑体系不健全、网络交易市场秩序存在风险等方面。针对存在的问题，论文提出了网络经济环境下扩大居民消费的政策建议（第十章）。建议政府应加快构建协调顺畅的网络经济发展和网络消费促进机制，具体包括：完善促进网络就业和创业的扶持政策、加强网络消费的应用促进和政策扶持、规范网络市场秩序等三个方面。经过系统的研究分析，本文得出的结论主要包括：一、网络经济发展水平与居民消费倾向之间存在正相关关系。互联网普及率的提高和网络经济的发展能够促进城乡居民消费倾向的提高，从而在既定收入水平下促进居民消费需求的扩大。二、与城镇居民消费倾向相比较，网络经济发展对提高农村居民消费倾向的作用更为显著。推动农村地区网络经济发展，对扩大农村居民消费需求，促进城乡居民消费均衡发展具有重要意义。三、与城镇居民相比较，网络消费渠道对农村居民实现潜在消费需求的意义和作用更显著，为政府扩大农村居民消费需求的政策实践提供了新的途径和方式。四、居民消费方式具有较强的惯性。网络消费方式的应用在不同地区和群体之间差异较大，全国推广普及尚需一个较长的过程，需要政府以适当的政策措施予以推动。五、网络消费方式在降低消费实现成本的同时，也带来了新的消费风险，依靠市场本身的调节机制难以自行解决，需要政府创新制度建设，弥补市场失灵。更多还原

【Abstract】 As one of the three driving forces of economic growth, consumption plays animportant role in national economy operation. Since the1990s and especially theoutbreak of the International Financial Crisis in this century, Demand-Expanding forconsumers has become an important direction and goal of China’s Macro-Controls.Internet economy is a new economic form, in which producers, consumers and othermarket players engage in economic activities through the connection platform ofInternet and other information networks. With the popularization and application ofinformation technology and the rapid development of Internet, various market playersconnect with each other as a whole through networks, which has revolutionized thepattern of economy operation and market trading, and significantly improves theefficiency of resource allocation, and improve the welfare level of producers andconsumers. The development of Internet economy presents a number of challenges forthe theory of traditional economics. Compared with the traditional economicenvironment, new changes are happening for consumers’ behaviors in the interneteconomic environment.There were a lot of research and discussion on the development of Interneteconomy and the growth of consumption respectively in existing literatures. At thesame time, there were a lot of research on origins, development and influencingfactors of network consumption of residents. All these achievements provide abundantmaterials and foundations for the research of this article. However, the research ontheory combined with internet economy and consumption economy in the existingliteratures need to be strengthened. Most study abroad starting from consumers andmanufacturers of micro-economic policy-making, network characteristics and factorsinfluencing consumer behavior consumer research study manufacturers in the face ofthe popularity of network applications and channel selection diversified consumerspending situation, how changes in business strategy, obtain favorable competitiveposition. From the theoretical point of view and less change in the macro-and mesoresearch network economy era facing consumers overall consumer environment fornetwork consumption overall development of China’s population, insufficient networkand its role in promoting the economic development of mechanisms for consumerresearch it also provides space for exploration of this study.In accordance with the logical thinking form present situation to theory, and toempirical and to question and to measures finally, this article built up a researchframework for “the Promoting Affection of Internet Economic Environment to theResidents’ Consumption Demand”. Firstly, A review of the recent changes inconsumer demand for residents of our country and existing consumption-promotingpolicies were evaluated (Chapter3). Contribution rate of consumption is stillrelatively lower. Since the international financial crisis, China’s economic growth toimprove the momentum of domestic demand, the central and local governments toimplement the appliance, automotive appliances and trade and a series ofpro-consumer policy, and tap the potential of resident fee, promote the optimization and upgrading of consumption structure, thus effectively expanding the Currentconsumer demand scale urban and rural residents.From the pro-consumer policy specific effects that have been implemented, due tothe existing institutional constraints, institutional factors, many policies only achieveshort-term results, the long-term mechanism remains to be established. Of particularnote is that the existing consumer promotion policy has not fully consider theeconomic environment and attention to the profound significance of networkconsumption of the residents, the lack of long-term economic impact of the networkon the understanding of the consumer, thus facilitating policy research network basedon consumer economic environment very urgent.This article summarizes the development of Internet economy and its overallimpact on China’s economic development (Chapter4). With the popularity ofelectronic information and Internet technology, the rapid development of China’sInternet economy in recent years, the production, consumption and even public lifehave had a profound impact. Network economy has become the new engine ofChina’s economic transformation and upgrading, sustainable agriculture and industryand service coordination fusion power development, social development impetuscollaborative innovation, the development of network economy has become aneffective way of improving national competitiveness.From both macro and micro economic perspectives, this article elaborated thepromotion mechanism of Internet economic environment for consumption demandgrowth (Chapter5). From a macro perspective, the network to promote the economicdevelopment of residents’ income growth, improve consumer orientation, so that theconsumption function curve shift, the release of the consumption potential andpromoting the growth in consumer demand. From the microscopic point of view, theeconomic environment improves network consumption to achieve the conditions,reducing the consumption of implementation costs, thus changing the behavior ofconsumers in a given budget constraints, enhanced and sustained consumer spendingpower aspirations, increased consumer surplus, improve consumer welfare.The promoting affection of Internet economic development to employment andresidents income (Chapter6) reflects on: the relevant industries to enhance the labordemand, optimize the structure of employment for workers to provide a broadplatform for entrepreneurs to expand the labor factor in income distribution role inpromoting income growth.In the process of economic and social development, the consumer tendency is notconstant, but due to changes in other factors change. Network to improve theeconomic environment for the consumer propensity role reflects (Chapter7) in:At a given level of income, consumers need to achieve certain practical conditionsto realize the consumption willing. In the process of China’s economic development,various factors determine the level of consumption is not balanced growth, especiallyin some non-income factors become a bottleneck restricting consumption growth.Since market information is not sufficient, the limited purchase opportunities andother social life constraints, consumption of residents to achieve limited, the actuallevel of consumption is lower than the actual purchasing power of consumers. Network restrict consumption growth economic development makes the reality of thecondition of the residents has been significantly improved, to promote the integrationof the national consumer market and circulation system, improve the effective supplyconditions in terms of flow, logistics, capital flow, etc., changed our residents,especially residents of rural areas and backward regions consumption constrained bythe reality of trading conditions, contribute to the release of the consumer potential toimprove the residents overall propensity to consume.In the section of empirical research (Chapter8), this article selected Internetpenetration, online shopping penetration and online payment network penetration asmeasured by the independent variable economic environment, select urban residentsand rural residents’ consumption propensity to consume propensity as the dependentvariable. By these indicators in2002and2013annual data, the establishment of atime series VAR model. Model analysis showed that the level of economicdevelopment and urban network, the propensity to consume rural residents arepositively related to improve Internet penetration can promote propensity to consume,thus contributing to expand consumer demand at a given level of income. The Internetpenetration and rural residents’ consumption tendency correlation was significantlyhigher than urban residents, the network is to improve the economic conditions ofrural residents tend to consume more significant role in promoting the popularizationof the Internet in rural areas, to promote the balanced development of urban and ruralresidents consumption has important significance.This article analyzes Internet economy growing environmental constraintsconsumer issues (Chapter9), including: Internet businesses facing employmentsystem and policy "blind spots", the breadth and depth of the network is not enoughconsumer applications, consumer support system is not perfect realization, networktransactions risks and other aspects of the market order.Deal with the problems above, this article proposes to expand the network economyenvironment consumer policy recommendations (Chapter10). The governmentshould accelerate the construction of smooth coordination network to promoteeconomic development and network consumption mechanisms, including: to improvethe promotion of employment and entrepreneurship network support policies topromote and strengthen the application of consumer policy support networks, normsof the three aspects of the network market order.Through systematic research and analysis, this article draws the followingconclusion:Firstly, there is a positive correlation between the level of internet economicdevelopment and the consumption propensity. The penetration of internet and thedevelopment of Internet Economy can contribute to improving the urban and ruralresidents’ consumption propensity, thus contributing to expand consumption demandat a given level of income.Secondly, compared to urban residents, the level of Internet economic developmentis a more significant role to improve rural residents’ consumption tendency. It is veryimportant for the expansion of consumer demand in rural areas and the balanceddevelopment of urban and rural consumption to promote internet economic development in rural areas.Thirdly, compared with urban residents, the internet channel for consumers act as amore significant role to realize the potential consumer demand for rural residents andthen provides new ways and measures for the government policy practice to expandrural consumption demand.Fourthly, the consumption pattern of residents has a significant inertia. There areobvious application level gaps of internet consumption patterns between the residentsof different regions and groups. It will take a long process for internet consumptionpatterns to spread over the whole country, so the government is needed to implementappropriate policy measures to promote the process.Fifthly, the patterns of internet consumption achieved in reducing costs ofconsumption realization, but also brings a new consumer risks, which is difficult tobe settled only relying on the market mechanism by itself and need government tocompensate for market failure though the innovation of institution construction,.更多还原