【作者】 马利军；

【导师】 杨秋宝；

【作者基本信息】 中共中央党校 ， 政治经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 物价问题是任何一个国家或社会都必须面对的民生问题。世界经济发展规律表明，许多快速增长的经济体都必然伴随一定程度的通货膨胀。改革开放以来，中国的通货膨胀问题与经济行为主体的通货膨胀预期有着密切的联系。当通货膨胀预期在较低水平时，较高的货币投放和经济增长可能只会带来较低的通货膨胀；而当通货膨胀预期在较高水平时，同样的货币投放和经济增长也会容易造成较高的通货膨胀。因而，对中国通货膨胀预期的系统性研究将有助于我们更好地理解经济行为主体的预期形成和预期效应，从而对稳定物价和整体经济发展具有较大的理论价值和现实意义。在这样的背景下，本文通过比较分析、历史考察和计量实证等方法展开对通货膨胀预期的研究。对通货膨胀预期的研究落脚点应该是对通货膨胀预期的引导和管理方面，而为了能够对居民通货膨胀预期进行更为有效的引导和管理，我们需要首先理解通货膨胀预期的基本特点和形成机理。中国的经济实践以及通货膨胀预期数据表明，经济行为主体的通货膨胀预期具有明显的主体异质性和整体不确定性特点，两者在很大程度上决定着中国通货膨胀预期的形成。由于不同经济行为主体在教育、年龄、收入水平、知识结构、风险偏好、信息差异等方面存在明显差异，其对相关“信息量”的感知是不同的，预期过程中的信息搜集和处理方式也就具有了稳定性差异，这种差异造成了中国通货膨胀预期的整体复杂性。其中，知识结构更加科学，风险偏好和信心偏好更具理性的群体，其通胀预期形成过程中的信息搜集也更为容易，因而其预期值也更为精准；而对于普通群众而言，限于其知识结构的不完善，以及容易规避风险或喜欢偏激，其通胀预期过程中的信息搜集也相对感性，从而使得预期值与实际通胀值之间存在一定的预期误差，并因此造成一定的福利损失。虽然这种预期差异性的局面在短期内是稳定存在的，但在长期内，无论是经济学家还是普通群众都会通过学习的形式对其他经济行为主体的以往预期结果进行判断和借鉴，因而长期来看，不同主体的通胀预期过程又均近似于理性，或者说近似于实际通货膨胀率。整体来看，中国的通货膨胀预期应该从横向和纵向两个角度进行探讨。在其他条件不变的情况下，横向看，中国的通胀预期具有明显的异质性，其中专家的通胀预期形成方式更接近于理性预期，一般公众的通胀预期形成方式更接近于适应性预期，而整个社会的通胀预期形成方式更接近于有限理性预期；纵向看，中国的通胀预期具有明显的不确定性，短期内，通胀预期形成方式近似于非理性预期，而长期来看，其形成方式又接近于理性预期，因而纵向整体分析，整个社会的通胀预期形成近似于粘性预期。不同经济行为主体的横向与纵向比较，构成了中国通货膨胀预期不确定性的主要方面。虽然中国通货膨胀预期的形成在很大程度上取决于经济行为主体的人口特征和经济特征，但它的形成也会受到市场环境变化的影响。对中国经济实践的实证分析表明，这种变化主要来自于住房价格、汇率、央行货币政策等方面。其中，汇率变动对通胀预期值的影响，反映的是中国居民在判断未来一段时期内的价格走势时，会较多关注资本市场和外部因素的变化，它包含了信贷量、外汇对冲、热钱流入、贵金属价格以及国外局势变动等多方面的内容；央行货币政策对居民通胀预期值的影响使我们认识到，如果央行的货币政策在短期内出台频繁，这会直接造成居民短期预期水平的不稳定，导致公众的通胀预期值粘在较高水平，进而推动物价的上涨；住房价格变动对居民通胀预期值的冲击使我们认识到，政府要稳定居民的通胀预期，就必须稳定住房市场，真正能够有效引导居民通胀预期的工具，不仅是金融政策，更应该是对民生问题的持续改善。除此，实际通货膨胀对通胀预期形成的反作用，也是形成较高通货膨胀预期的重要原因，如果物价指数波动剧烈，呈现快速上涨态势，那么公众必然会调高未来一段时期内的通胀预期值，进而形成通胀预期与实际通胀的螺旋上涨过程。中国居民的通货膨胀预期对实际通货膨胀水平的影响是通过不同主体的行为方式改变体现出来的。它在短期内会使得消费者的消费需求、投资者的投资需求、政府支出以及净出口需求出现较大波动，从而加剧总需求的变动。同时，通胀预期也会使得劳动力等生产要素市场的要素价格提高，加大了企业的生产成本，从而引起总供给的较大波动。总供求的变动，将进一步导致经济结构失衡，造成经济发展乏力，影响宏观经济的稳定。长期内，通货膨胀预期干扰了市场信号的传递，影响投资者和消费者行为，导致市场信号失真和实际供求关系变化，从而加剧整体经济波动，最终会演变成潜在产出水平基本不变基础上的物价螺旋式上涨。结合上述分析，我们认为中国政府应在认识到管理居民通货膨胀预期必要性的基础上，注重顶层设计在通胀预期管理中的重要作用，尝试建立分类管理和分期管理并重的双向管理体系。在具体的通货膨胀预期管理过程中，政策部门既要考虑不同经济行为主体的异质性特点，做到因人而异的差异化引导，又要注重流动性、房地产价格、货币供给量等市场参数对通胀预期值的影响；既要做到对大众传媒等市场媒介的有效利用，又要注重预期管理的时间跨度。在判断中国通货膨胀预期形成基础和预期效应的基础上，决策层应适时适量地提供一套有针对性的应对措施，以稳定中国居民的通货膨胀预期，确保中国经济的持续健康发展。本文的创新之处主要体现在对中国通货膨胀预期研究的系统性、理论性和时效性等方面。通过对通货膨胀预期的特点和中国通货膨胀预期与实际经济发展关系的历史考察和实证分析，本文利用时效性较强的时间序列数据探讨了中国通货膨胀预期的形成机理、影响因素和效应，并提出了在注重顶层设计基础上的中国通货膨胀预期双向管理体系。同时，由于通货膨胀预期在中国引起关注的时间尚短，因而本文也具有一定的局限性，实证分析有待进一步提高，对影响因素的研究也有待于后续的进一步微观化。更多还原

【Abstract】 The price must be faced in any country. The law of development of the worldeconomy suggests that many fast-growing economies are inevitably accompanied bythe inflation. The inflation in China have closely linked to the inflation expectationssince the reform and opening up. When inflation expectations at a low level, thehigher the money supply and economic growth, low inflation brought about only, butWhen it at a high level, the same money supply and economic growth will lead tohigher inflation. Thus, a systematic study of Chinese inflation expectations will helpus better understand the formation and the expected effect, which has great theoreticaland practical significance of price stability and overall economic development. In thiscontext, we will use the comparative analysis, historical study and measurement ofempirical methods to study it.The purpose of the research on the inflation expectations was meant to guide andmanage it. So we need to understand the basic characteristics and the formationmechanism of inflation expectations in China. The economic practices and data inChina show that the behavior of inflation expectations has obvious characteristics ofuncertainty and heterogeneity, which largely determine the formation of inflationexpectations. The perception of the information is different due to the obviousdifferences in education, age, income level, knowledge structure, risk preferences andother informations for the economic agents. If the people has more scientificknowledge structure, more rational risk appetite and preference, it can be easier andmore precise to gather information for the inflation expectations. Otherwise, therewould be a certain error between the expected and actual inflation due to theimperfect knowledge and relatively sensibility. Although this difference is stable inthe short term, whether economists or the general public will form a similar result inthe long term that approximates the actual rate of inflation by learning and judging thepast results of any groups.Overall, inflation expectations in China should be discussed from both horizontaland vertical angles. It is expected to have a significant heterogeneity from thehorizontal angles, in which the formation of the expert closer to rational expectations,and the formation of the general public closer adaptive expectations, while the formation of the whole society approach closer finite rational expectations. In thesame way,it is expected to have a significant uncertainty from the vertical angles, inwhich the formation be similar to the non-rational expectations in the short term andrational expectations in the long term, while it is expected to be a viscous expectations.It constitutes the main aspects of the uncertainty about the inflation expectations inChina.While the formation of inflation expectations in China is expected to largelydepend on the demographic and economic characteristics of the people, it is alsoaffected by changes in the market environment, such as housing price, exchange rate,monetary policy, etc. The impact of exchange rate changes on inflation expectationsreflects that the Chinese people will give more attention on the changes about thecapital market and external factors, which includes the amount of credit, foreignexchange hedging, hot money inflows, etc. The impact of monetary policy oninflation expectations makes us realize that if monetary policy formulated by thecentral bank be changed in the short run frequently, the inflation expectations wouldbe stuck at a high level, which will drive up the actual inflation. The impact ofhousing price on inflation expectations reflacts that it is an effective tool to guideinflation expectations by improving people’s livelihood, such as stabilizing housingprices. In addition, the actual reaction on inflation expectations is also an importantreason for the formation of higher inflation expectations. If the inflation showed arapid rising trend, the people is bound to raise inflation expectations in the comingperiod, and then screw up the process of the formation on the inflation expectationsand actual inflation.The impact of inflation expectations on actual inflation will be manifested bychanges in the way of the behavior of different subjects. It will make greater volatilityin demand, which includes the consumer demand, investment demand, governmentspending and net export demand. Meanwhile, inflation expectations will also impactthe price of labor and other factors of production, which would make greater volatilityin aggregate supply. Changes in the total supply and demand will further lead tostructural imbalances in the economy.Combination of the historical research on the inflation and inflation expectations,Chinese government should recognize the necessity to manage inflation expectations.It is a good way to try to establish a management system both on horizontal and vertical angles. In the specific operation, the departments should not only have toconsider the heterogeneity of different people, but also pay attention to liquidity, realestate prices, the money supply and other market factors that affecting the formationof inflation expectations. At the same time, the departments should not only beeffective use of the media tools, but also pay attention to the time span in themanagement process. In short, the government should be timely and appropriate toprovide a targeted response measures to stabilize inflation expectations and theeconomy in China on the basis of accurate grasping of the formation and the effect ofinflation expectations.The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the study of Chinese inflationexpectations systematic, theoretical aspects and timeliness. Through the historicalInvestigation and empirical analysis, we discussed the formation mechanism, factorsand effects of the inflation expectations in China, and proposed two-way managementsystem based on the top-level design. Meanwhile, this paper also has some limitations.The empirical analysis needs to be further improved, and the study also needs to bemore microcosmic between the factors and the inflation expectations in China.Therefore, we have a lot of research to be conducted.更多还原