国际碳关税理论机制与中国低碳经济发展

【作者】 鲁旭；

【导师】 张伯里；

【作者基本信息】 中共中央党校 ， 政治经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 化石能源的利用对于促进全球经济发展与人类社会进步起到了至关重要的作用，然而，燃烧化石能源所产生的无限度二氧化碳排放也导致全球气候逐渐升温。一些受气候变化影响较大的西方发达国家开始主动在国内发展低碳经济，与此同时，也在国际上通过多边气候谈判极力推动更多国家接受强制碳减排的约束条件。但是，由于率先进行减排的国家在本国竞争力损失以及碳泄漏问题上存在顾虑，国际气候谈判向前推进得异常艰难。碳关税作为试图逼迫在谈判中不合作的国家接受碳减排的贸易手段，其出现推动了该进程，但是，也使得气候变化问题开始与国际贸易问题相交织。从开始的反对到在环境与能源的相关法案中富有戏剧性的采纳，美国对于碳关税的态度转变标志着其在重新考量碳关税的战略价值。碳关税不仅可以将发展中大国一同纳入强制碳减排行列以遏制其发展，也可以改变传统的国际贸易比较优势，帮助西方发达国家在国际经贸领域形成新的低碳竞争力。越来越多的西方发达国家看到了碳关税所产生的国际碳博弈效果，积极培育低碳竞争力，试图凭借在全球低碳经济领域的主导权，来获得经济和政治上的最大国家利益。虽然中国在外交上的确应该极力谴责发达国家自工业化以来高碳化行为造成的气候环境变化恶果和碳关税的贸易保护主义行径，但并不意味着中国就能始终以碳关税不合理或不合法为由去轻视国际碳减排问题以及本国的低碳经济发展。随着中国经济发展以及工业化与城镇化的快速推进，中国的二氧化碳排放量也在高速增长。无论是国际减排压力，还是国内环境与资源的容纳程度，中国的低碳经济发展都已到了势在必行的地步，而且在气候变化问题全球化的今天也已不能脱离国际大环境而存在。因此，重视碳关税并且有效地针对碳关税才能使中国的低碳经济转型获得更多的时间和空间，而在争取的有限时间内更加有所作为则是中国低碳经济获得未来竞争力的必然选择。本文以中国低碳经济发展为研究对象，以碳关税问题为切入点，采用历史研究法梳理了碳关税的产生与发展，采用归纳与演绎相结合的方法分析了碳关税等碳概念间的逻辑关系以及从碳关税的理论架构中得出碳关税的两种理论机制——碳博弈机制和碳减排倒逼机制，采用比较分析法对于不同西方发达国家的低碳经济发展模式以及中国的低碳经济发展实践进行了比较分析，采用定性与定量相结合的模型分析法得出了中国未来低碳经济发展的最优模式，以及采用规范分析法构建了中国低碳经济动态协调发展的对策体系。通过这些研究方法的使用，论文希望能够以碳关税的视角为中国低碳经济发展提供更为全面而系统化的建设思路。本文共分八章。第一章为绪论，引出了具有关联性的国际碳关税与中国低碳经济发展问题，分别对碳关税和低碳经济进行了文献综述，在此基础上提出了论文的研究目的、意义、思路、方法、创新点与不足；第二章为碳关税的产生背景、提出与进展，介绍了气候变化、国际气候谈判以及碳关税被提出的相关情况，对碳关税的最新进展进行了跟进分析，以期为三、四两章的的深入研究提供清晰思路；第三章为碳概念间的逻辑关系，在对碳关税名称、含义、征收方式和贸易福利效应等方面进行全面剖析的基础上，将与碳关税相关的碳概念以减排、金融、消费等不同视角加以区分，说明了碳关税与这些碳概念间的逻辑关系；第四章为碳关税的理论机制，阐述了碳关税的经济理论基础和合法性的国际法架构，在此理论框架内，构建了两种碳关税的理论机制——正在推进的碳博弈机制和已经存在的碳减排倒逼机制；第五章为碳博弈机制下的西方发达国家低碳经济发展实践，明晰了碳博弈机制下的碳关税与西方低碳经济发展模式之间所存在的辩证关系，选取了在低碳经济发展上走在前列且具有鲜明特色的英国、美国和日本这三个国家进行低碳发展模式的分析；第六章为碳减排倒逼机制下的中国低碳经济发展实践，以碳关税压力出现前后的时间为线索阐述了中国低碳经济发展理念的变化、所采取的以行政命令式节能减排为主的政策体系以及中国目前正在不同程度推进的西方低碳经济发展的市场措施，并对其减排效果进行了评价；第七章为中国低碳经济发展的决策分析，采用层次分析法，通过构建中国低碳经济发展的决策模型，对政府管制手段的行政命令式节能减排和发挥市场调节机制的碳税或碳交易等碳减排措施进行了定性与定量相结合的决策分析；第八章为中国低碳经济发展的对策体系构建，将第七章实证得到的以碳税为主体的决策结果，连同第二至五章所阐述的低碳经济不能忽视碳关税，以及第六章所揭示的中国微观企业低碳发展动力问题，共同作为本章政策体系构建的原则，并在这三个原则的指导下，分别从前期准备、碳税方案的实施、碳交易的协同发展、政府低碳管制措施的转变以及外交应对措施等五个方面按照碳税的实施进程给出了系统化和动态化的中国低碳经济发展对策体系，以期有助于中国能够在复杂的国内外局势下有效地推动低碳经济发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 The use of fossil fuels plays a crucial role in promoting global economicdevelopment and human social progress, but unlimited carbon dioxide emissionsproduced by burning fossil fuels also lead to the warming-up of global climate. Somewestern countries, which are greatly influenced by climate change, has begun toactively develop low-carbon economy interiorly, and to push more countries to acceptthe constraint of mandatory carbon emission reduction through international climatenegotiations exteriorly. However, to make these negotiations go ahead is very difficult,because the leading countries in carbon emission reduction have concerns aboutcompetitiveness loss and carbon leakage. As the trade measure which tries to forcedis-operative countries to accept emission reduction in the international climatenegotiations, carbon tariff advances the course, but it also makes climate changeissues begin to interweave with the international trade ones. The change of theAmerican attitude to the carbon tariff dramatically from opposition at the beginning toadoption in the bills concerned with environment and energy marks Americanreconsideration of the strategic value on carbon tariffs. Carbon tariff can not onlyinclude the large developing countries in the ranks of mandatory carbon emissionreduction so as to curb their development, but also change the traditional tradingcomparative advantages to help western countries form new low-carboncompetitiveness in the international economic and trade fields. More and morewestern countries feel the power of the international carbon game generating fromcarbon tariff, positively cultivate low-carbon competitiveness, and try to control theglobal field of low-carbon economy to obtain their biggest economic and politicalinterests.Although China should strongly condemn the climate change caused byhigh-carbonization behavior of developed countries since their industrialization anddiplomacy protectionism of the carbon tariff, it does not mean China can alwaysresort to irrationality or illegality of the carbon tariff to neglect the internationalcarbon emissions reduction and domestic development of low-carbon economy. With economy development and rapid promotion of industrialization and urbanization,China’s carbon-dioxide emissions are quickly increasing. Based on the considerationof international pressure to reduce emissions and admitting degree of domesticenvironment and resources, China’s low-carbon economy has come to be imperativeto develop and cannot be separated from the international environment in theglobalizing time of climate change issue. Therefore, to pay more attention to thecarbon tariff and to fight effectively against it can make China’s low-carbon economictransformation have more time and space. Meanwhile, to do better and better in thelimited time is the inevitable choice of China’s low-carbon economy for getting thefuture competitiveness.Making China’s low-carbon economy development as the research object andcarbon tariff as the breakthrough point, this thesis uses historical study method totrace back to the history of carbon tariff; combines inductive and deductive methodsto analyze the logical relationship between carbon tariff and other carbon conceptsand to obtain the two kinds of theoretical mechanism-carbon game mechanism andforced carbon emission reduction mechanism from theoretical framework of thecarbon tariff; adopts comparative analysis method to probe into the different low-carbon economy development modes in western countries and China’s low-carboneconomy development practice; utilizes the qualitative and quantitative model toobtain the optimal mode of China’s future low-carbon economy development; puts thenormative analysis method into use to construct the countermeasure system for thesynergetic development of China’s low-carbon economy. By all these researchmethods, the thesis wants to provide a more comprehensive and systematicconstruction thinking to China’s low-carbon economy development in the perspectiveof carbon tariff.This thesis consists of eight chapters:Chapter One is Introduction. This chapter raises an inevitable connectionbetween international carbon tariff and China’s low-carbon economy development,and then carries on literature reviews on carbon tariff and low-carbon economyrespectively. On this basis, this chapter puts forward the research purpose,significance, train of thought, methods, innovations and deficiencies of this thesis.Chapter Two is Background, Emergence and Progress of Carbon Tariff. Thischapter introduces the related situations of climate change, international climate negotiations and emergence of the carbon tariff, and analyzes the up-to-date state ofthe carbon tariff so as to give the clear train of thought to the in-depth study ofChapter Three and Four.Chapter Three is Logical Relationship among Carbon-related Concepts. On thebasis of comprehensive analysis on concept, meaning, collection methods and tradewelfare effect of the carbon tariff, this chapter distinguishes other carbon-relatedconcepts in terms of emission, finance and consumption and illustrates the logicalrelationship between carbon tariff and other carbon-related concepts.Chapter Four is Theoretical Mechanism of Carbon Tariff. This chapter constructslegality of carbon tariff in the international law on the basis of its economic theory. Inthis framework, this chapter forms two kinds of theoretical mechanism of carbontariff-carbon game mechanism which is going on and forced carbon emissionreduction mechanism which has showed its power.Chapter Five is Practice of Low-carbon Economy Development in WesternCountries under Carbon Game Mechanism. This chapter clarifies dialecticalrelationship between carbon tariff and western low-carbon economy developmentmode under the carbon game mechanism, and then selects British, American andJapanese modes to deeply analyze because these western countries developlow-carbon economy at the forefront and each has distinctive characteristics.Chapter Six is Practice of Low-carbon Economy Development in China underForced Carbon Emission Reduction Mechanism. Using time of pressure before andafter emergence of carbon tariff as links, this chapter elaborates China’s ideationalchange on low-carbon economy development, the implemented policy system whichfocuses on administrative-command energy saving and emission reduction, and thewestern market measures China is now adopting to promote low-carbon economydevelopment in different degrees. And then, this chapter evaluates the results ofChina’s emission reduction.Chapter Seven is Decision-making Analysis on China’s Low-carbon EconomyDevelopment. By utilizing Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), this chapter constructsa decision-making model of China’s low-carbon economy development to giveintegrating qualitative and quantitative analysis to government-control measures(administrative-command energy saving and emission reduction) and marketregulation measures(carbon tax and carbon trading). Chapter Eight is Countermeasure System to Construct China’s Low-carbonEconomy Development. This chapter takes the empirical decision result that carbontax should dominate China’s low-carbon economy development obtained in chapterseven, the viewpoint that carbon tariff cannot be ignored elaborated in chapter two tofive, and the motivation problem of microcosmic enterprise in the emission reductionrevealed in chapter six as construction principles of the countermeasure system.Under the guidance of these principles, this chapter puts forward a systematic anddynamic countermeasure system of China’s low-carbon economy development interms of preparation, implementation of carbon tax, coordinated development ofcarbon trading, transition of government low-carbon controls and diplomatic responseto carbon tariff respectively to help China effectively promote the development oflow-carbon economy in the complicated situations at home and abroad.更多还原