我国商业银行盈利模式的转型研究

【作者】 苏阳；

【导师】 李兴山；

【作者基本信息】 中共中央党校 ， 政治经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 商业银行的盈利模式是其外部制度环境和内部经营条件在收支结构方面的综合反映，也是决定其盈利能力、价值创造能力及市场竞争力的前提；商业银行的盈利能力体现出组织内部资本积累的成效和水平，较好的盈利能力，有助于增强市场信心，保障银行资产安全，降低流动性风险，进而维持信用体系稳定。实际上，受制于政策、市场、客户等多方面的复杂因素影响，我国银行业盈利模式与盈利能力之间的关系较为复杂，目前该方面研究大多停留在定性分析的层面。因此，运用定量的方法研究盈利模式与盈利能力之间的互动关系，从盈利模式转型升级的角度探索增强商业银行的盈利能力具有重要的意义。当前，我国银行业盈利模式为“以利差为主要利润来源、以信贷规模扩张为主要业务形式、以分业监管为主要监管模式”。银行业的市场化竞争机制尚未建立，但随着我国金融改革不断深入，特别是上海自贸区的成立，将“允许具备条件的民间资本依法发起设立中小型银行等金融机构，健全多层次资本市场体系建设以及稳步推进利率市场化的进程”，不仅意味着银行业市场化机制建设提速，我国商业银行的高利差时代也将终结。同时，以余额宝、活期通等为代表的互联网金融异军突起，也将加快推进金融脱媒化进程，促使商业银行重新审视自身的金融创新能力、调整业务发展战略。此外，我们看到，自2010年12月国际清算银行的巴塞尔金融监管委员会发布第三版巴塞尔协议（以下简称巴塞尔协议III）以来，我国商业银行面临更为严苛的资本监管约束①，亟需调整战略，应对全新监管要求。金融环境的变化启示我们，我国商业银行当前信贷业务主导的盈利模式必须转型。长期以来，宏观层面受到高储蓄和高投资拉动的经济增长方式影响；中观层面受到以间接融资为主体的金融市场结构制约；政策层面受到利率管制及分业监管的金融体制限制，导致我国商业银行当前的盈利模式存在“两个主体”的现状：一是利差收入占主营业务的主体，二是批发业务占利差收入的主体。与此同时，中间业务发展滞后，呈现三方面特点：第一，中间业务品种较少、附加值低、创新力不足；第二，重规模、轻效益、缺乏统一规范，中间业务创收能力低；第三，业务电子化、网络化程度低，服务手段科技化水平有待提升。要解决这些问题，必须实现盈利模式的转型。本文在回顾前人研究的基础上，提出了研究我国商业银行盈利模式转型问题的理论框架，构建了用于综合评价商业银行盈利能力的指标体系。然后针对我国商业银行的盈利现状进行分析，从当前我国商业银行盈利模式的特点、成因、转型的障碍及驱动因素等维度展开研究。之后，以美国、德国、瑞士和香港的商业银行盈利模式为研究对象，对西方国家商业银行与我国商业银行盈利模式进行比较分析，并总结了发达国家商业银行盈利模式对我国的启示。然后，本文以我国15家上市商业银行（包括国有银行、股份制银行和城市商业银行的代表）2005年-2012年的财务数据为样本，利用Stata11.0作为分析工具，运用面板模型的广义最小二乘法及因子分析等方法开展了商业银行盈利模式与盈利能力的相关性分析，并得出以下结论：第一，从整体上来看，商业银行的盈利模式和盈利能力间存在较为显著的相关性，以“非利息收入占比”作为衡量标准的多元化盈利模式与商业银行综合盈利能力间存在显著的正相关关系；第二，从不同类型的商业银行来看，比起国有四大商业银行，股份制商业银行和城市商业银行的非利息收入对综合盈利能力的正向拉动作用更大，因而今后股份制商业银行与城市商业银行在业务战略调整上可向非利息收入业务倾斜；第三，与传统存贷业务相比，开展中间业务为代表的非利息业务对营业利润的提升更为有效，且这种趋势在加剧，这也为我们倡导的商业银行的盈利模式由传统信贷业务主导向信贷业务与中间业务协调发展的多元化业务模式转型提供了数据支撑。第四，我们运用因子分析法对商业银行总资产收益率、税前人均利润、总资产增长率、营业收入增长率、贷存比、拨备覆盖率、资本充足率、不良贷款率、成本收入比九个方面的指标进行了提取及合成，该合成指标可以测查到商业银行风险管理能力、资金流动性管理、未来成长能力、资产质量管理、股本扩张能力、成本管理水平、资本获利水平等若干方面的能力，通过运用此指标体系对15家样本商业银行的盈利能力进行的排名，可以发现国有商业银行落后于城市商业银行和股份制银行。此指标体系对于我国商业银行跟踪监测自身的综合盈利能力，从而及时调整业务重点有一定的指导意义。通过研究发现，我国商业银行盈利模式转型有其必要性和必然性，但在转型过程中，应当重点把握“一个目标，四个维度”。一个目标即：盈利模式由传统信贷增长的粗放型高风险模式向利差模式与中间业务均衡发展的多元化集约型盈利模式转型。而四个维度即：以维持当前净利息水平为基础，以拓展非利息收入为着力点，以增强创新研发水平为驱动，以提升风险管理水平为保障。以期研究结论和政策建议对我国商业银行的未来战略发展和盈利模式转型提供一定的角度和思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 Commercial Bank’s profit model is the comprehensive reflection of both thebank’s external institutional environment and internal operating conditions in the fieldof the bank’s balance of payments structure, and at the same time, it is also thepremise which determines on the bank’s profit-ability, value-creative-ability, and themarket-competitive-ability. As a special industry which dealing with currency andcredit, the profitability of banks not only provides a way for its internal capitalaccumulation, but also provides a channel for improving the safety and liquidity of thebank’s assets. Furthermore, the profitability can also enhance the public confidence,thus maintaining the stability of the whole social credit system.The characteristics of profit model of China’s banking industry, by now, aremainly manifested in three aspects: to hold the interest difference as the primarysource of income, the expansion of credit scale as the main business, the separatesupervision as the major operating method. Currently, with the steps of the foundationof Shanghai FTA (free trade area), especially the formulation and implementation ofsome financial reform rules and its detailed applications like: Allowing qualifiedprivate capital to initiate the establishment of small and medium-sized financialinstitutions, improving the construction of multi-level capital market system, andsteadily promoting the process of the market-oriented interest rate reform, thecommercial bank of our country’s High Spreads Era is coming to an end. At the sametime, not only the rapidly-growing inter-bank competition, a new financial force isemerging suddenly from internet field such as Yu Ebao launched by Alibaba, HuoQitong by ChinaAMC. All these new approaches of money management haveaggravated the process of financial disintermediation, forcing commercial banksthemselves to re-examine their financial innovative capability and to adjust theirbusiness development strategy. In addition，in December of2010, the third edition ofthe Basel Agreement released by the Basel’s Financial Supervisory Commission ofBIS (bank for international settlements), which hereinafter referred to as the Basel Ⅲ,has increased the global commercial bank’s minimum tier-one capital adequacy ratio from previously required4%to6%, and promoted the minimum requirement ofcommon stock from2%to4.5%. This, undoubtedly, makes the Commercial Banks ofour country face a more stringent and tougher situation in the field of capitalconstraints regulation and supervision.The change of financial environment and current situation mentioned aboverevealed us an inspiration that we must transform China’s Commercial Bank’s currentcredit-operation-oriented profit model to another. Be deeply influenced for a long timeby the high-savings-and-high-investments-driven economic growth mode from themacro level, constrained by the indirect-financing-majored financial market structurefrom the medium level, and restrained by the control-of-interest-rate andseparate-regulation led financial system from the policy level, the original profitmodel shows a strong inertia which formulate the country’s existing profit modelitself. However, it can’t be ignored that there are some problems inherent within thiskind of model, listed those four as below:1) It is a simple model with few source of revenue, and the mainly profitability relieson the traditional deposit and loan business;2) This model develops with few kinds of intermediary business, low added value andless creativity;3) It focuses a lot on size, not efficiency. It is also lack of unified regulations, and itsintermediary business has a poor ability to raise revenue;4) Besides, electron and network technology which is widely used in our daily lifecan’t be well applied in China’s current financial operations. There is indeed a muchroom to improve the e-service level in financial area.Overall, it concludes that the transformation of Chinese commercial bank’s profitmodel has its necessity and inevitability.Based on the review of previous research and thesis, this paper proposes atheoretical framework on the transformation of profit model of China’s commercialbank, and tries to construct a whole index system for comprehensive evaluations ofthe commercial bank’s profitability. For this purpose, this paper firstly analyzes on thecurrent situation of Chinese commercial bank’s profit earning patterns, specificallyresearch into the features, causations, barriers of transformation, driving factors of theexisting profit model. Secondly, taking the United States, German and Hongkong asexample, the paper carries out a comparative analysis of commercial bank profit model between the western country and our country, and summarizes the experienceand enlightenments of the profit model of commercial banks in developed countries.After that, this paper selected15commercial banks in China (including thestate-owned banks, joint-stock banks and city commercial banks), collected sufficientdata from2005-2012among those15samples, used Stata11.0as analysis tool, andthen utilized the least square method of panel model and factor analysis to carry outthe correlation analysis on profit model and profit ability of China’s commercialbanks. Finally, the paper arrived at a conclusion as follows:1)From an overall perspective, there is a remarkable correlation in commercialbank between the profit model and profit ability, especially between the diversityprofit model and bank’s overall profit ability, the correlations shows significant andpositive;2)Among different types of commercial banks, it is found that, compared with thefour major state-owned commercial banks, the revenue from the intermediarybusiness of joint-stock commercial banks and city commercial banks played a muchmore positive role in improving the bank’s overall profit ability. Therefore, in thefuture, on the adjustment of business strategy, it is suggested that the joint-stockcommercial banks and city commercial banks could tilt towards the intermediarybusiness.3)By contrast to the traditional deposit and loan business, the development ofintermediary business contributes quite a lot in improving the operating profit, andthis trend is intensifying. This result of analysis provides some raw material andobjective basis for the necessity of the transformation of the profit model. For thecommercial banks, it is a more promising way to develop thecredit-business-and-intermediary-business-focused profit model, rather than justfocusing on the traditional deposit and loan business and profit mainly from the netinterest.4)By utilizing the factor analysis method, this paper constructs a whole indexsystem which is composed of the real profitability indicators like the all capitalearning rate, the potential profitability indicators like pre-tax per capita profit, totalassets growth rate, business revenue increase rate, and the dynamic profitabilityindicators like loan-to-deposit ratios, provisioning coverage ratios, non-performingloan ratios and cost-to-income ratios. The aggregative indicators from the whole index system can be used to monitor the bank’s abilities in different aspects include riskmanagement ability, liquidity management ability, future growth ability, asset quality,equity expansion ability, capital structure management ability, capital profitability andso on. Using this index system, the paper ranks the15samples of the commercialbanks according to their profit ability, and gets the result that the state-ownedcommercial banks lag behind the joint-stock commercial banks and city commercialbanks. Through this analysis and practice, we conclude that this index system hasguiding significance in tracking and monitoring China’s commercial bank’s overallprofitability so as to instantaneously adjust the business focus.As mentioned above, the paper stresses the necessity and inevitability of thetransformation of the profit model of China’s commercial banks. In the process oftransformation, however, we should emphasize “one center, and four basic points”.“One center” means the profit model shall transform from the extensive high-riskmodel which focus on the profit increase from traditional deposit and loan business tothe intensive diversity model which underlines much more on the profit increase fromthe intermediary business. And “four basic points” means the profit model shall baseon maintaining the current level of net interest, focus on expanding non-interestincome, be driven by enhancing innovative research and development, and beguaranteed by improving the level of risk management. Hope that the conclusions andsuggestions in this paper can provide a point of view for China’s commercial bank’sfuture strategy formulation and profit model transformation.更多还原