【作者】 张琳；

【导师】 孙东升；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农产品贸易， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 大麦是一种生产面积仅次于小麦、玉米和水稻的重要粮食作物。其适应性强、分布区域广，全球150多个国家和地区均有栽培。二十世纪初中国大麦的栽培面积据世界首位，建国后在农作物的相互竞争中生产面积逐渐下降。改革开放以后，随着啤酒业和畜牧业的迅速发展，国内对啤酒大麦和饲料大麦的需求随之增加。国内生产难以满足需求，大量的供需缺口依靠进口弥补，2001年以来中国年均大麦进口量200万吨左右，占国内总需求的1/2左右。自2002年中国已连续11年成为全球啤酒生产量最大的国家，中国的人均啤酒消费量已达到世界平均水平，但与发达国家人均消费量之间存在一定差距。国内人均啤酒和禽畜肉类及其制品的消费增长潜力仍然很大，导致大麦的需求呈现―刚性‖状态。本文旨在分析中国大麦的供给、需求状况，深入研究影响大麦供给、需求和贸易的重要因素。利用近年来国内大麦具体的供求数据，预测2013-2025年中国大麦的供给、需求、价格和贸易状况。依据适应性价格预期理论，构建了以播种面积度量的中国大麦供给反应模型，并运用2009～2012年中国11个大麦主产区的面板数据对大麦供给的影响因素进行了分析。研究结果显示，滞后一期大麦价格、滞后一期和滞后二期大麦播种面积以及大麦—小麦价格比是影响大麦供给的重要因素；大麦供给缺乏短期价格弹性，但富有长期价格弹性；滞后一期大麦播种面积和滞后二期大麦播种面积都对当期大麦播种面积产生了显著正向的影响，表明大麦供给具有一定的连续性；大麦—小麦价格比对大麦供给也产生了显著的正向影响，说明比较收益会在一定程度上影响农民的大麦种植决策。分析中国大麦的需求状况，对各种不同用途大麦的需求变动状况进行描述，建立1990-2012年间中国大麦需求函数模型，运用单位根检验和协整检验方法分析影响中国大麦消费的各种因素，采用最小二乘估计方法对中国大麦的需求函数进行参数估计。结果显示，滞后一期大麦需求对当期大麦需求具有显著正向影响，大麦市场价格对大麦需求具有显著负向影响，大麦的需求价格弹性为-0.20，这说明滞后一期大麦需求和大麦价格是影响中国大麦消费的主要因素，当大麦市场价格上升1%，中国大麦需求量下降0.2%。中国大麦贸易以进口为主，进口贸易依存度偏高。文中构建了反映相关因素与中国大麦进口之间关系的实证模型，结果表明：中国大麦进口对国际市场价格反应最为敏感，其次是国内啤酒生产量、国内市场价格和滞后一期大麦进口量；当国际市场大麦价格上升1%时，中国大麦进口量下降0.82%；当国内啤酒产量增加1%，中国大麦进口量增加0.47%；当国内市场大麦价格上升1%，中国大麦进口量扩大0.22%，且中国大麦进口具有连续性。结合大麦的供给和需求状况，依据局部均衡理论建立1990-2012年中国大麦供给需求的局部均衡模型，模型由反应中国大麦供给、需求、价格、进口、出口、相关商品价格和市场出清七个方面的联立方程构成，运用系统估计方法确定模型中重要变量的参数，利用ARIMA模型预测模型中部分外生变量的数值，根据今后中国人均收入和人口增长率设定未来四种不同的发展情景，预测2013-2025年中国大麦的供给、需求状况。结果表明，2013-2025年中国大麦生产将会持续萎缩，国内大麦产量不断下降，但下降幅度有限；短期内中国大麦的消费量将会扩大，长期内将趋于稳定；大麦市场价格将会持续上涨；大麦供求缺口将继续存在，进口规模将会有所扩大，短期内大量依赖进口的局势将很难改变。在当前中国大麦供给量波动下降，消费量持续增长，进口依赖程度偏高的发展趋势下，提高大麦生产的比较收益，保障国内专用大麦生产规模，充分发挥大麦进口贸易大国的地位对今后中国大麦产业健康稳定发展具有重要意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Barley is a kind of important grain crop, and its production area is next to wheat, corn and rice inthe world. Because of its high adaptability and wide distribution, more than150countries or regionscultivate barley in the global. China had the largest barley cultivation area in the world at the beginningof the20thcentury. After the founding of the PRC, the barley sowing area began to decrease gradually inthe crops competition. With the rapid development of beer industry and animal husbandry, the domesticdemand for beer barley and feed barley has increased since the reform and opening up. Domesticproduction can not meet the demand and a large gap between supply and demand has been made up byimports. Since2001, Chinese annual barley imports were about2000,000tons, accounting for1/2of thetotal domestic demand.China has become the world’s largest beer producer countries for11consecutive years since2002.China’s per capita beer consumption has reached the world average level recently, but there is still a biggap between China and developed countries. Domestic per capita consumption of beer, livestock meatand its products still have growth potential which result in the "rigid" state of barley demand.The purpose of this paper is to analyze the barley supply and demand situation of China, and studythe significant factors that affect Chinese barley supply, demand and trade. Using the recent years’ dataof barley production, this paper will predict Chinese barley supply, demand, prices and trade conditionsfrom2013to2025.Based on the adaptive price expectation theory, this paper constructs Chinese barley acreage supplyresponse model measured by sowing area, and chooses panel data of11main production areas from2009to2012to analyze factors influencing barley supply. The estimation result shows that one periodlagged price of barley, one period lagged of barley sowing area, two periods lagged of barley sowingarea and barley-wheat price ratio are important factors which affect Chinese barley supply; Chinesebarley supply lacks short-term price elasticity but is rich in long-term price elasticity; one period laggedof barley sowing area and two periods lagged of barley sowing area have a notable positive effect onbarley snowing area, indicating that the supply of barley has a certain continuity; barley-wheat priceratio has a notable positive effect on barley supply, indicating comparative income will affect farmers’barley planting decisions in some extent.After the analysis of Chinese barley demand, changes in barley demand in various uses will bedescribed. Based on the study, Chinese barley demand model will be established during thetwenty-two-year period1990-2012and use the unit root test and co-integration test method to studyvarious affecting factors of Chinese barley consumption. Then this paper will introduce least squares toestimate parameters of Chinese barley demand model. Estimation results show that the lag issue ofbarley consumption coefficient is0.49, the price of barley coefficient is0.20, which indicate that thebarley lag phase consumption and price are the main factors which influence Chinese barleyconsumption. That is when prices rose1%, consumption will drop0.2%. Because of the large barley imports and high trade dependence in China, we construct an empiricalmodel of Chinese barley imports and the factors related. The results show: Chinese barley importsresponse most sensitive to international market prices among the factors that have influence in barleytrade, and domestic beer production, domestic market price and the upper stage barley imports arefollowed. If the international market prices rose by1%, the imports will drop by0.82%; if the domesticbeer production increased by1%, the barley imports will increase by0.47%; if the domestic marketprices rose by1%, the barley imports will expand by0.22%. What’s more, Chinese barley import hasthe "inertia".Based on the theory of partial equilibrium, we built Chinese barley partial equilibrium model ofdemand and supply from1990to2012. The model consist7functions which react China’s barley insupply, demand, price, import, export, related commodity price and market clearing. Using systemestimation method to determine the parameters of important variables in the model, this paper usesARIMA model simulations to predict the value of some exogenous variables of the model. And fourdifferent scenarios have been built according to the different setting of Chinese per capita income andpopulation growth in the future to forecast Chinese barley of supply and demand situation from2013to2025. Prediction results show that Chinese barley production will continue to shrink, domestic barleyproduction is declining with limit; Barley consumption in China will be enlarged in the short term andstable in the long term; barley market prices will continue to rise; the gap between supply and demandwill continue to exist, imports will be widened, imports scale will extend and the situation is hard tochange.With the trend of fluctuating declining barley supply, growing barley consumption and high barleyimport dependence, improving the comparative income and protecting the scale of domestic specialbarley production scale and giving full play to import trade barley status will have importantsignificance for Chinese barley industry healthy and stable development in future.更多还原