【作者】 刘春济；

【导师】 冯学钢；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 世界经济， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 当前,经济结构是影响我国宏观经济运行最为突出的问题,而在经济结构调整中,产业结构优化是该问题的核心。为了实现我国产业结构的优化,业界已经做了诸多实践,学界则为相关实践提供了理论指导和智力支持。但在部分细分化产业形态中,相关实践还有待深化,理论指导也存在着诸多不足,旅游产业领域便是如此。其中,在理论方面,存在的典型问题是多数研究不仅把旅游产业结构和旅游经济结构相混淆,也缺乏对旅游产业结构优化内在约束规则的探讨,并引发了旅游产业结构研究成果无法获得跨学科认同等问题。同时,相关的基础理论研究尚缺乏系统性,无法满足旅游产业结构优化实践的需求。此外,理论研究的失范与缺失,也致使部分实证研究严谨性不足、甚至相互冲突,已经阻碍了同学科研究成果的累积与交流。在实践方面,存在的问题是多数区域旅游产业结构优化推进的系统性不足,对关键环节的把握也较为缺失。为此,有必要对我国的旅游产业结构优化问题进行系统性的探讨。结合我国旅游产业结构优化研究与实践的现状,本文试图在理论、实证和政策建议三个层面探讨我国旅游产业结构的优化问题。与已有的研究相比,本文的重点主要体现在以下几个方面：(1)剖析了我国当前旅游产业结构研究存在严重分歧的原因,并在跨学科认同的基础上构建了旅游产业结构构成的理论框架,从而确定了旅游产业结构优化研究的范畴。同时,从系统理论和优势理论两个角度构建了我国旅游产业结构优化研究的理论框架,其中,前者的着眼点是旅游产业结构优化的系统动力因素；后者的着眼点则强调旅游产业结构优化应遵守一定的约束规则。上述理论分析既是本文展开的理论基础,也是对既有旅游产业结构优化研究理论框架缺失的弥补。(2)针对我国旅游产业结构优化研究存在系统性不足的问题,本文按照事情发生、发展的基本逻辑顺序,进一步提炼了旅游产业结构优化研究中的关键性环节,并展开了相关的理论分析与实证研究,以期为系统探讨我国旅游产业结构优化的政策建议奠定基础。首先,认为合理化和高度化是旅游产业结构优化的主要表现维度,并在分析其实质的基础上,从全国、区域和部门三个层面考察了我国旅游产业结构优化水平的演变趋势。结果表明,整体看,我国旅游产业结构的高度化程度在持续提升、合理化程度在波动中下降,且区域差异明显。对于其成因,本文结合我国旅游产业的发展历程与特点尤其是区域经济特征进行了阐述。上述工作提升了我国旅游产业结构优化测度的精细化水平,也为我国旅游产业结构优化的跨区域比较提供了可能。其次,从理论层面分析了影响因素作用于旅游产业结构优化的机制,构建了影响因素直接或间接推动我国旅游产业结构优化的作用机理模型,并分别使用基于复回归和相关系数分解的路径分析技术对作用机理模型进行了实证检验。从而筛选出了影响我国旅游产业结构优化的关键因素,并揭示了在不同时期不同因素作用于我国旅游产业结构优化机制的差异。再次,在理论分析基础上,构建了测度旅游产业结构短期动态变化能力的指标体系和转换速度的度量指标,并分析了转换能力和转换速度的区域差异和动态变化。从而提炼出了决定我国旅游产业结构转换能力的主导因素,同时发现转换能力和转换速度在我国东、中、西部地区呈现出了梯度递减态势且区域内差异明显。第四,从旅游经济增长方式转变内涵和旅游产业结构优化内涵两个角度分析了旅游产业结构优化影响旅游经济增长方式的机理,并依托多部门经济模型比较分析了旅游产业结构优化对我国旅游经济增长的贡献,依托面板数据模型精确测度了旅游产业结构优化对我国旅游经济增长的影响效应。结果显示：第一,多部门经济模型分析表明旅游产业结构优化对我国旅游经济的增长起到了重要的促进作用,但东、中、西部的区域差异明显；第二,面板数据模型分析表明,旅游产业结构优化对我国旅游经济增长的影响具有持续性和区域普遍性,但受旅游产业结构协调性不足的影响,其经济影响效应在下降。稳健性检验则证明了面板数据模型分析结果的可靠性。对于上述研究结论,本文从多层面探讨了其成因。(3)在理论分析和实证研究的基础上,从旅游企业能力塑造、要素影响力激活、协调发展、非均衡增长、立足区域特征、产业政策引导、借鉴国际经验七大方面系统阐述了我国旅游产业结构优化的对策。其中,认为旅游企业能力的塑造是旅游产业结构优化的出发点,要素影响力激活是旅游产业结构优化的动力,协调发展是旅游产业结构优化的核心,非均衡增长是旅游产业结构优化的突破口,立足区域发展是旅游产业结构优化的方向,产业政策引导是旅游产业结构优化的保障,借鉴国际经验是旅游产业结构优化的有效途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 Currently, the most prominent problem of macro-economy operation in China main lies in the economic structure and the adjustment of economic structure in which the optimization of the industrial structure is the core of the strategy. With the theoretical guidance and intellectual support in academia, a lot of practice has been made to realize the optimization of industrial structure in China. However, there still exist many problems in some subdivision industry, including the tourism industry, and the relevant practice still need further research as well as more theoretical guidance.Theoretically, the typical problems include not only the confusion between the industrial structure and economic structure of tourism industry, but also the lack of internal rules of the optimization of the industrial structure of tourism. It triggers the interdisciplinary identity problem of the research on the industrial structure of tourism. Meanwhile, the theoretical researches are still not systematic enough, which fails to meet the need of the practice of the optimization of the industrial structure of tourism. In addition, the lack of theoretical or it’s basis leads to the impreciseness of empirical research and hinders the accumulation and communication of the academic study. Practically, the major problems are the lack of systematic promotion in the process of the optimization of industrial structure of tourism and the deficiency in the grasp of key aspects. Therefore, it is necessary to systematically explore the optimization of the industrial structure of tourism in China.Based on the present situation of research and practice in China, the present dissertation attempts to explore of the optimization of the industrial structure of tourism on three levels:the theoretical study, the empirical study and the policy suggestions. Compared with the existing research, the main contributions of this paper mainly lie in the following aspects: (1) It analyzes the origin of serious differences in Chinese industrial structure research of tourism and constructs a theoretical framework for the industrial structure of tourism on the basis of interdisciplinary identity. At the same time, this dissertation proposes a theoretical framework from two perspectives, systematic theory and advantage theory, for the research on structural optimization of China’s tourism industry. The former focuses on the factor of systematic power to optimize the structure of tourism industry and the latter emphasizes the optimization of tourism industry structure should comply with a set of constraint rules. The theoretical analysis is the theoretical basis of this dissertation as well as the compensation for the optimization theory of the existing structural industry of tourism.(2) In view of China’s inadequate research on the structural optimization of tourism industry, this dissertation makes a theoretical and empirical study on the structural optimization of tourism industry. It follows the logical order of development of tourism and introduces the essential sectors of it, attempting to lay the foundation of policy consultation for the systematic study the structural optimization China’s tourism industry.Firstly, this dissertation claims that rationalization and supererogation are the main factors of the manifestation of the structural optimization of tourism industry. It analyzes the nature of tourism and studies the changing features of the tourism industry in our country on the national, regional and sectoral levels. It is found that the supererogation degree of tourism industry has been increasing while the optimization degree dropping. The analyses of the reasons not only enhance the elaboration of the measurement of the structural optimization of tourism industry but also make it possible to conduct cross-regional comparisons.Secondly, this dissertation offers the theoretical analysis of the factors affecting the mechanism of structural optimization of tourism industry and constructs the model of mechanism of action that directly or indirectly promotes the structural optimization of China’s tourism industry. Moreover, it makes a multiple regression analysis and path analysis of correlation coefficient decomposition that screen out the key factors affecting the structural optimization of tourism industry in China and accordingly reveals differences of the mechanisms in different periods. It has far-reaching implications for the industry to develop appropriate policies to enhance significantly the direct and indirect the structure of tourism industry.Thirdly, on the basis of theoretical analysis, this dissertation constructs an index to measure the ability of the short-term dynamic changes and the conversion rate. It also analyzes the regional differences and the dynamic differences in conversion ability and speed, and point out the main factors that affects the differences. It is found that there exist significant differences between eastern, central and western regions and demonstrates gradient descent.Finally, this dissertation analyzes the mechanism of how the structural optimization impact economic growth of the tourism industry from two perspectives: the transformation of economic growth pattern and the structural optimization of tourism industry. It also states in detail the contribution to the development of tourism in China through the multi-section comparison of economic modes and measures precisely the effect of panel data on its development. The experimental results show that multi-section comparison of economic modes promotes the economic growth of Chinese tourism, but it also demonstrates the significant differences between different regions. Moreover, the panel data analysis shows that the structural optimization of tourism industry has continuous and common effect on the development of the economic growth of tourism but the power has been descending. It also shows that the effect varies in different period of times. The robustness analysis supports the validity of the above experimental results.(3) On the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical research, this dissertation systematically expounds the measures of structural optimization of Chinese tourism industry in six aspects:shaping the company’s capabilities; the activation of the key influencing factors; coordinated development; non-balanced growth; the regional situation and the policy guidance. Among them, shaping the tourism enterprise capabilities is the starting point; the activation of the key influencing factors is the motivation; coordinated development is the core; non-balanced growth is the breakthrough; the regional development is the direction the policy guidance is the guarantee.更多还原