【作者】 邢祥娟；

【导师】 朱永杰；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 林业经济管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,伴随着工业化及城市化进程的快速发展,我国的生态环境也日益恶化,保护并建设良好生态环境,以实现社会可持续发展成为一个紧迫的问题。退耕还林工程是我国林业生态建设工程的重要组成部分,也是我国政府目前进行生态环境建设的重大举措,为我国实现可持续发展提供了重要保障,也是我国为世界生态文明建设作出的重大贡献。随着项目的不断深入,其政策目标不再是单一的改善生态环境,而是逐渐发展为综合性目标体系,具体包括优化产业结构、增加农民收入、缩小地区差距、推动地区的社会经济可持续发展等。目前相当一部分地区的经济林第一轮补助已经到期,生态林的补助也有一部分到期,而伴随着第一轮补助期的结束,部分农户出现返耕现象,这使得人们开始关注退耕还林工程长期生态效果的风险分析。本文利用林业重点工程与消除贫困课题组四次大型农户调查的数据,运用资源经济学、公共经济学、制度经济学等经济学理论,采用相关计量模型、数据包络分析等研究工具,深入研究了退耕还林工程对农民收入的影响。首先,对柯布—道格拉斯生产函数进行了改进,构建了农民收入的扩展生产函数模型,运用平衡面板数据对退耕还林工程对农户收入的影响进行了分析。研究表明,退耕还林工程对农户的总收入的影响是正的,由于农户各项收入的增长不平衡,所以不同来源收入对收入增长的贡献也有差异。退耕还林工程并没有减少农户的家庭经营性收入。农民的工资性收入所占比例呈逐年稳定上升的势头,说明退耕还林工程减少了耕地面积,释放了劳动力,客观上促进了劳动力的转移,对农户工资性收入产生显著的正向影响,但后期工资性收入的相对增长率逐渐减小其次,引入收入结构相似度概念,对参与退耕还林工程的农户和未参与退耕还林的农户的收入结构进行比较,发现收入结构相似度先下降,经过一段时间调整又上升,收入结构的趋同表明工程补贴并不是农户收入的主要来源,而且考虑到农户的补贴收入,其他收入应该也是较非退耕户高的。退耕户的收入结构绝对值变动高于非退耕户,但其波动幅度相对较低,说明退耕还林工程对农户的收入稳定性有一定的作用。第三,运用DEA非参数效率对收入结构的合理性进行了估计,样本总体的纯技术效率和规模效率都偏小,说明农业生产依然处在速度型阶段,打工效率同样偏低。就样本农户参与工程与未参与工程的比较来看,参与退耕还林工程的农户退耕农户经营效率中的技术效率和规模效率都低于非退耕户,从打工效率来看参与退耕还林工程的农户技术效率和规模效率低于未参与工程的农户,表明政策的实施仅仅为农村剩余劳动力的转移和农民的收入增加提供了可能性并没有促进收入结构的稳定转换。最后,在理论分析和实证分析的基础上,本文剖析了退耕还林工程实施过程中存在的问题,借鉴美国生态修复工程,提出了把实施退耕还林工程同调整农业产业结构、引导后续产业发展相结合；进一步完善土地流转、林权流转制度,发展集约型农业；加强技术和资金投入,加大教育投入力度以及完善退耕补助制度,积极探索生态补偿体制创新等相关政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Accompanied by the rapid industrialization and urbanization, China’s ecological environment is increasingly worsening since the reform and openness started in1978. Therefore, it is necessary to protect the ecological environment and improve the conditions of human life for sustainable development. In China, the Grain for Green Project is an important part of forestry ecological environment policies implemented by the central government. With the deep implementation, Grain for Green Project has become an integrated system, which is not only to improve ecological environment, but also to improve industrial structure, increase the income of farmers, reduce regional differences, and serve for the sustainable development of social economy. Recently, the first stage subsidy for economic forest has finished and for ecological forest has partially finished, but the reclamation occurs. Hence, it attracts more research attention on the long-term ecological effects and risks of Grain for Green Project.Using the data of large-scale farmers’ investigation collected by the Research Group of Forest Key Project and Poverty Alleviation in2005,2007,2008, and2009, this study deeply investigates the impacts of Grain for Green Project on farmers’ income both qualitative and quantitative analysis on the basis of resource economics, public economics, institutional economics and other economic theories.First of all, this study revises the Cobb-Douglas production function and builds an extended production function regarding farmers’ income, and then examines the impacts of Grain for Green Project on farmers’ income with balanced panel data. The results show that Grain for Green Project has positive effects on farmers’ total income. However, the incomes from different sources are unbalanced, which makes their contributions to total income differ. With the implementation of the project, the wages income of farmers contributes to total income increasing, which means the project reduces farmlands and releases the labor force to other industries. Therefore it is reasonably to infer that the project positively affects the farmers wage income.Second, based on the concept of income structure similarity, the similarity of income structure between farmers who are involved in the project and who are not decreased at the beginning, but it went up after a while. This phenomenon implies that operational income is not the main source of farmers’ total income. The fluctuation range of income structure of farmer involved is lower than the farmers uninvolved, which reflects that the project is good for the stability of farmers’income. Third, this study examines the rationality of income structure employing DEA non parametric efficiency. The pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of the sample is low, which means farming industry is still in the speed stage in China. This study reveals that the work efficiency is also low. In term of operational efficiency, the technical efficiency and scale efficiency of farmers involved in the project is lower than farmers that are not involved, and it is opposite from the perspective of work efficiency. These findings indicate that the implementation of the project provides opportunities for transferring of rural surplus labor force and increase of farmers’ income, but it did not stimulate the stable transfer of income structure.Finally, this study analyzes the major issues in the process of the Grain for Green Project and suggests to combine Grain for Green Project and the restructure of agricultural industry restructuring, improve the land transfer and forest transfer mechanism to develop intensive agriculture, increase the capital investment on technologies and educational, perfect the institutions of subsidy for Grain for Green Project and explore institutional innovation for ecological subsidy.更多还原