【作者】 刘豪；

【导师】 高岚；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 林业经济管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 2012年9月,广东省全面启动碳排放权交易试点,其实施方案明确提出广东省要将森林碳汇纳入到碳排放权市场进行交易。为了促进广东省森林碳汇市场合理有序的发展,本文围绕市场供给与需求展开分析和讨论,旨在探明广东省森林碳汇有效供需量的基础上,对广东省森林碳汇市场供需双方进行均衡分析,探讨广东省森林碳汇市场的交易模式,制定市场制度,完成广东省森林碳汇市场理论的构建,为其他省市从事森林碳汇市场研究提供理论借鉴。文章详细论述了各地森林碳汇市场的发展现状和存在问题,比较分析了国内外森林碳汇市场供需关系、市场发育、认证标准和认证登记四个方面,表明国内与国外市场存在一定的差距。首先采用修正Laspeyres指数分解方法明确各时期工业分部门影响碳排放的因素,从产出、行业结构和能源强度三个方面效应找出减排潜力所在,得出广东省森林碳汇需求潜力。同时采用CO2FIX模型模拟方法模型,按照碳汇造林技术规定(试行)选择树种的,各树种面积和最优轮伐期,最终对不同树种碳汇储量、不同方案的碳汇量和可交易森林碳汇量比较研究,预测森林碳汇的供给潜力。其次对广东省森林碳汇需求方与供给方进行供给均衡分析与博弈,首先需求方易形成买方垄断势力,政府实施措施增强森林碳汇供给方的市场势力。其次森林碳汇的有效需求来自政策驱动,为了使森林碳汇供给者更好组织生产要素参与森林碳汇市场,对供给方中政府、林业局、造林公司和林农利益分配博弈分析,同时分析林农对森林碳汇市场的认知与参与意愿,最后提出实现最优博弈结果的建议。然后对森林碳汇市场交易模式进行分类对比研究,按经营类型归为四类分别是股份合作模式、自营模式、依附模式和委托代理模式,并从森林碳汇项目的组织者、造林者、经营特点、典型项目及规模等方面进行论述,对比项目融资来源、收益分配、交易方式和经营风险四个方面,提出发展多元化森林碳汇交易模式策略。最后探讨广东省森林碳汇市场制度构建和交易流程设计,建立有四中心的森林碳汇市场管理机构,设计六步市场交易流程,规范森林碳汇交易供给方、交易平台、第三方服务机构及相关配套制度。更多还原

【Abstract】 It started a pilot of carbon emissions trading and forest carbon market was clearly put forward into carbon emissions trading market in2012September. Forest carbon market is mainly analyzed on the supply and demand in Guangdong province. The basis of the effective supply and demand, it analyzed both supply and demand equilibrium to explore the forest carbon market trading patterns and the development of the market system, promoted the rational and orderly development of forest carbon market. The purpose is to complete the construction of forest carbon market theory, at the same time, to provide a theoretical reference for other cities engaged in forest carbon market research.This is indicating that there is a certain gap between the domestic and foreign markets, after comparatively analyzed it’s supply and demand, growth degree, identidied standards and certification registration. First, Using the modified Laspeyres index decomposition method,it analyzed that the potential demand for forest carbon sinks come in Guangdong province, affecting the industrial sub-sector carbon emissions in each period from the output, industry structure and energy intensity reduction potential to identify three areas where the effects. While using CO2FIX model, it analyzed that the potential supply for forest carbon sinks come in Guangdong province, according to the carbon sink afforestation technology (Trial) select species, each species in the area and the optimal rotation. there was study on forest carbon was comparison of different tree species, different schemes and tradable forest.After it analyzed and gamed equilibrium for the demand and the supply supply in Guangdong province, it was proposed that the government implement such bundling, subsidies and other measures to enhance forest carbon supply of the market forces. On the supply side, game analysis was done about the distribution of interests between governments, Forestry, company and farmers,for finding out the optimal game equilibrium. At the same time, farmers’cognition and participation on forest carbon were done.there were recommendations to realize optimal game results.The trading pattern of the forest carbon market was classified into four categories, such as stock cooperative model, proprietary model, attachment model and principal-agent model, these were discussed from the organizer, afforestation, operating characteristics and the typical scale of the project. Based on comparing sources of project financing, income distribution, trading and operational risks in four areas, forest carbon trading model strategies were proposed, for the development of diversified.It mainly explored the construction of the forest carbon market and the trading process design in Guangdong province, relevant suggestions and strategies were made. Finally, It sumed up the entire article, including lackness and innovation更多还原