【作者】 刁钢；

【导师】 郑文堂； 宋维明；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 林业经济管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 木材作为四种传统原材料之一,是保障经济发展的重要战略性资源,木材供给安全与否将影响到中国经济、社会和环境的协调发展。该文主要分析中国木材的供需情况,研究保障木材供给安全的政策。作者首先回顾了已有研究对中国木材供需问题的研究方向及结论,并重点评述了木材供需的研究方法；然后,介绍了中国主要木质林产品及木材的供需现状。第四章建立了中国木质林产品供需系统动力学模型,分析了模型的范围、结构和方法,并利用面板或时间序列数据估计了模型的参数。第五章首先评价了模型的预测能力；然后利用ARIMA模型和其他方法预测了模型的外生变量；最后预测了2013-2020年主要木质林产品供需状况和木材的供给来源。模型的预测结果显示,中国木材需求量增长速度有所放缓,2020年国内木材消耗量将达到7.6亿m3。中国木材的供给来源有木质剩余物、原木、回收的木材和木质林产品的进口。中国木材供给总体是安全的,但部分木质林产品的对外依存度较高。第六章从进口安全的角度研究了木材的供给问题。作者在石油供给安全指数的基础上构建了木质林产品的进口风险指数；然后建立了基于二次型的最优进口结构模型。并利用风险指数和进口结构模型分别评价了原木、木浆和废纸的进口风险,计算了在最小风险情况下的木质林产品的进口来源。第七章从木材供给来源的角度分析了提升木材供给能力的措施。首先利用系统动力学模型模拟了造林面积变化和放松采伐限额对原木供给的影响。森林面积的增加是缓解原木供需矛盾的根本性措施,但短期效果不明显。在采伐限额制度下,加强市场的调节作用可以激发供给者的积极性,减少福利损失。然后,分析了木材与废纸的回收利用情况,政府应在政策法规、技术标准和经济补贴方面制定相应的政策推动木材和废纸的回收利用。最后,利用最优进口份额模型计算了2020年中国原木和木浆的进口来源。该文运用定量方法系统地研究了木材供需问题,预测了2013-2020年的木材供需情况,分析了不同保障木材供给的途径,为了解木材供需变化和政策制定提供了依据和研究工具。更多还原

【Abstract】 As one of the four traditional materials, timber is an important strategic resources supporting national economic development. The safety of timber supply will affect the coordinated development of China’s economy, society and the environment. Therefore, this paper forecasted the timber supply and demand situation in China, and analyzed the policies to protect the safety of China’s timber supply.First of all, this paper reviewed the research directions and conclusions of China’s timber supply and demand issues in existing studies, and focused on the review of research methods of timber supply and demand. Then, the paper introduced the supply and demand status of China’s major timber products and the overall situation of and timber supply and demand. Based on the theoretical review and analysis of timber supply and demand status, the fourth chapter established a supply and demand system dynamics model of China’s timber products by system dynamics. The section described the scope, structure and method of the model firstly. Then, it estimated the parameters of the model using panel data or time series data.The fifth chapter forecasted China’s timber supply and demand situation in2020by supply and demand system dynamics model of China’s timber products. First, this chapter evaluated the predictive ability of system dynamics model. Then, it forecasted the exogenous variables in the model using ARIMA models and other methods. Finally, it forecasted the overall situation of supply and demand of China’s major timber products and timber from2013to2020. The prediction results showed that the growth of China’s timber demand would be slowed down, and domestic wood consumption would reach760million m3in2020. From the perspective of import security, the sixth chapter analyzed the problem of timber supply. First, based on the index of oil supply security, it established the import risk index of timber products. Then, it established an optimal import structure model based on the quadratic form, and evaluated the import risk of logs, wood pulp and waste paper using the risk index and the import structure model respectively. Finally, it calculated the amount of timber products export to China from other countries in the case of the smallest risk.From the perspective of timber supply sources, the seventh chapter analyzed the measures to protect China’s timber supply security. First, the chapter simulated the impact of changes in afforestation area and the marketization of operation and management of forest resources on timber supply using system dynamics model respectively. Increaseing forest area was the fundamental measures to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of timber, but short-term effect was not obvious. Under the logging quota system, strengthen market regulation could stimulate the enthusiasm of timber supplier and reduce welfare losses. Then, the paper analyzed the recycling problem of timber and waste paper. By2020, the amount of timber recycling would reach more than200million m3in China, accounting for30%of China’s total demand for timber. At the same time, recycling of waste paper would develop rapidly, China’s waste paper recovery rate would reach67%by2020, and the foreign dependency would drop to30%. The Government should formulate corresponding policies to promote the timber and waste paper recycling developments in policies and regulations, technical standards and economic subsidies. Finally, the paper calculated the national optimal amount of timber and wood pulp imports from different countries in2020, using the model of optimal import share.In summary, this paper systematically studied China’s timber supply and demand issues using quantitative methods, and forecasted China’s timber supply and demand from2013to2020, and analyzed the different ways to protect timber supply, and provided basis for understanding China’s timber supply and demand changes and policy making. Meanwhile, the supply and demand system dynamics model of China’s timber products, the import risk index of timber products and optimal import structure model in the paper can be widely applied, and provide reliable and convenient decision analysis tools for government and business decision-makers.更多还原