【作者】 栾江；

【导师】 陈建成； 何忠伟；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 教育在促进国民经济发展、提高居民收入增长和收入分配中发挥着重要的作用。在我国城乡二元经济体制的背景下,农村教育对于促进农村劳动力转移、推动城镇化进程以及农民增收方面具有特别的作用和意义。然而,由于区域经济条件限制,我国西部农村地区教育水平落后,很多研究表明教育在促进西部地区农村居民收入增长方面的作用并不显著,这造成了当地辍学率较高、读书无用论盛行等问题。虽然教育对农村居民收入影响的研究众多,但针对西部农村地区的相关研究较少,且缺少较为全面的分析。本文按照“教育—就业行为—收入提高—收入差距—教育普及政策模拟”的思路,在西部农村地区农户调查数据的基础上,采用大量计量经济学方法,综合分析了教育对我国西部农村居民收入的影响,预测了教育普及政策效果。研究结果表明：首先,教育不仅显著促进了西部农村劳动者从事非农工作的概率,同时对其非农就业的地域、职业选择以及返乡就业行为均有显著的影响。教育对农村劳动者就业行为的影响将对其收入水平产生间接影响,因此在估计教育对西部农村居民收入水平以及教育普及政策效果时应考虑这种间接影响。第二,通过使用Heckman two-steps方法纠正了农业收入模型估计结果中的自选择偏差后,得到教育对农业毛收入的边际影响为1.3%,对农业净收入的边际影响为1.8%,教育对农业生产配置效应为5%。第三,采用Mincer收入模型估计出的西部农村地区的教育对劳动者非农收入的年均回报率为2.7%～3.9%,这一结果说明西部地区教育回报率偏低。在采用了倾向指数匹配方法(Pscore-Maching)纠正异质性偏差后,对高中教育和中等职业教育的收入回报水平(处理效应)进行了估计,结果表明：(1)通过接受高中教育,劳动者的收入水平提高了27.9%～31.2%；通过接受中等职业教育,劳动者的收入水平提高了31%～32.8%。(2)中等职业教育的参与者处理效应(ATT)和非参与者处理效应(TUT)均高于高中教育的水平,说明中等职业教育更有利于提高农村劳动者的非农收入水平。(3)通过比较两种教育的ATT和TUT,发现TUT普遍高于ATT,一定程度上说明在西部农村地区教育资源没有得到最优化的配置。第四,分位回归的结果表明,教育对西部农村劳动者非农收入差距具有扩大的作用。我们进一步分解了教育对非农收入差距的贡献率,通过Field分解方法得到劳动者受教育年限对于非农收入差距的贡献为4.7%～5.7%；通过Shapley分解方法得到劳动者受教育年限对于非农收入差距的贡献为4%～4.3%。第五,通过模拟反事实状况,预测了教育普及政策对西部农村居民收入水平的影响。预测结果表明,继续在我国西部农村地区普及九年义务教育将不会产生显著的政策效果,而如果能够加大初中后中等教育的普及力度,将会对西部农村居民的收入水平和收入分配状况产生显著的改善作用。如果普及高中教育和中等职业教育,西部农村居民的人均收入水平将提高27.9%和32.4%,人均收入的基尼系数和贫困人口数量也将大幅度减小。相比较而言,中等职业教育对西部农村居民收入增长和收入分配的作用更加显著。最后本文根据实证结果提出相关政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Education plays an important role in improving Chinese rural laborers’incomes. However, in Chinese western rural area, the level of return to education is very low due to the underdeveloped economy and the condition of the education system. For improving the schooling returns level, Chinese central government is paying great attention to the condition of education in the rural western area. To date, no research has examined what educational style is more favorable for improving western rural laborers’non-farm incomes. Studies concerning the causal relationship between schooling (highschool education and secondary vocational education) and non-farm earnings in the western region of China remain very limited, even empty. This paper will make an update contribution to the literature in the area of education earnings in China. To answer this question, this paper follows the mentality of "education-employment action-income improvement-income distribution-policy simulation", bases on the large sample data from western rural area survey, employs several econometrics methods, analyzed the education effect on the income of Chinese western rural residents and simulates the effect of education spread policy. The results of the research show that, firstly, education affects not only the probability of the rural labors joining the non-farm jobs but also influences their decisions about which region and vocation to join in. That indicates the education could influence the western rural residents’ income indirectly by affecting their employment action. Secondly, by employing Heckman two-steps method to estimate the farming income model. The results show that the education return to farming gross income is1.3%, and the education return to farming net income is1.8%. The education return to farming productive efficience is5%. Thirdly, base on the Mincer model, several methods is used to estimate the average return to a year education on western rural labors’non-farm income, including OLS, IV and Heckman tow-steps method, to accounting for the the ability endogenous and self-selection bias. And the propensity score matching method is used in estimate the treatment effects of highschool education and secondary vocational education on their non-farm incomes.The results from Mincer model showed that the schooling returns in Chinese western rural area were estimated to range from2.7%to3.9%, that were lower than the average levels in Chinese whole rural area that are estimated in the other recent studies, by using propensity score matching to roll out the heterogeneous bias, show that the average treatment effect on the treated from highschool education was higher than that from secondary vocational education, indicating that the secondary vocational education is better for improving the rural labors’non-farm income. And the average treatment effect of the un-treated from highschool education was also higher than that from secondary vocational education, indicating that the education resources are not allocated reasonable. Fourthly, the result from the quantile regress indicates that the education has enlarged the non-farm income distribution gap. And the ratio of education to non-farm income distribution gap is4.7%to5.7%by Field decompose method, and4%to4.3%by Shapley decomposed method. Fifthly, by simulating the counterfactual condition to estimate the effect of education spread policy. The results indicate that, it will make little sense if the government keep spread the nine-year compulsory education. If the secondary education after junior high school could be popularized by the government, the income level would improve greatly. The rural labors’ income would improve27.9%and32.4%separately if the highschool education and secondary vocational education is popularized, and the GINI coefficient and poverty population would decrease largely. Finally, some policy suggests are presented base on the results.更多还原