【作者】 王秋香；

【导师】 赵其国；

【作者基本信息】 南京大学 ， 自然地理学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 耕地保护是我国的一项基本国策。耕地是土地的精华,耕地保护是实现粮食安全战略的重要措施与途径,是实现经济社会可持续发展的重要保障之一。目前我国正处在经济高速发展、城市化和工业化突飞猛进的时期,对建设用地的需求将进一步增长,从而增加了我国耕地保护的难度。面对有限的耕地资源既要保证“吃饭”又要保证“建设”的两难局面,不仅要保障工业化和城镇化进程,更要确保耕地质量底线和粮食安全。而这一难题在经济发达地区更为突出,已成为制约区域经济社会发展的“瓶颈”。论文以经济发达典型区域的广东省佛山市为例,利用数理统计、空间分析等方法,从佛山市实际情况出发,分析研究区耕地变化特征,利用时间序列分析、相关性分析以及回归分析法,对佛山市耕地利用变化驱动机制进行了研究,采用情景分析法结合地理学研究中的空间模拟技术,构建了三种土地动态变化情景,并对三种情景下耕地空间格局特征进行了模拟,分析了不同情境下,佛山市2015年和2030年耕地利用的特点。最后根据佛山市建设用地扩展特点与耕地空间分布特征,从技术、法律与经济角度,系统地提出了耕地保护的政策与措施。研究结果显示：(1)佛山市耕地保护形势比较严峻,耕地变化主要驱动力为人口、GDP、人均GDP、建设用地、固定资产投入以及工业生产总值,利用spss相关性分析显示,耕地数量与人口、GDP、人均GDP、建设用地、固定资产投入以及工业生产总值等因素呈显著相关,其关系数分别为：-0.952、-0.891、-0.874、-0.893、-0.956和-0.869。耕地空间布局变化主要影响因素为上述因素所引起的建设用地扩张。(2)耕地空间布局变化主要影响因素为建设用地扩张。佛山市建设用地可分为建设用地优先发展决策模式、保护优先决策模式以及发展与保护兼顾决策模式等三种情景。利用SLEUTH模型分别模拟了不同情境下,2015年和2030年佛山市城市扩展的特征。情景Ⅰ是基于建设用地优先发展情景,城市增长方式以离心式外延扩展为主,建设用地变化剧烈,虽然城镇用地经济产出增长迅速,同时也将伴随着耕地流失规模大、生态风险增加较快等不利后果；情景Ⅱ是保护优先决策模式,城市增长方式以向心式内部填充与更新改造和景观生态保护为主。建设用地变化节奏以及耕地占用量得到明显控制,耕地和生态得到很好的保护,但土地资源“瓶颈”制约相对突出；情景Ⅲ是基于发展与保护兼顾决策模式,城市增长方式以城乡结合部地区建设用地扩张为主,以边缘增长形式为辅,更趋向于可持续发展,是上述两种情景之间的折中型城乡用地优化情景,城镇用地扩张规模与速度处于上述两种情景之间,是一种兼顾发展与保护要求的“折中型”建设用地发展模式,也是最具参考价值的城乡用地优化方案。(3)在不同情景模式下,耕地空间分布特征显著。情景Ⅰ决策模式下,耕地和桑基鱼塘减少面积大、速度快,全市耕地减少49%以上,年减少速率达到2.2%以上。桑基鱼塘减少62%左右,年减少速率达到2.8%以上。耕地主要分布在高明区的西部和三水区北部两个集中区,桑基鱼塘主要分散在高明、三水、顺德和南海四区,顺德区和南海区原有的桑基鱼塘这一人工生态系统将逐步消失；情景Ⅱ决策模式下,耕地和桑基鱼塘减少受到严格控制,全市耕地减少13%左右,年减少速率不到0.6%。桑基鱼塘减少15%左右,年减少速率在0.7%左右。耕地主要分布三水区的东北部和南部地区,高明区的西北部地区以及南海区的东南部地区。桑基鱼塘主要分布在顺德区、南海区的西南部、三水区的东南部以及高明的东北地区；情景Ⅲ决策模式下,耕地和桑基鱼塘减少得到有效控制,全市耕地减少29%左右,年减少速率在1.3%左右。桑基鱼塘减少36%左右,年减少速率在1.6%左右。耕地主要分布高明区的西北部、三水区的东北部以及南海区的东南部地区。桑基鱼塘主要分布在顺德区中西部、南海区的西南部、三水区的东南部以及高明的东北地区。情景Ⅲ是介于情景Ⅰ和情景Ⅱ之间的折中型耕地布局优化情景,耕地和桑基鱼塘减少规模与速度处于两种情景之间,是一种兼顾发展与保护要求的“折中型”未来耕地空间布局模式,最具参考价值。(4)最后根据模拟结果,结合佛山市经济社会发展特征,从技术、法律与经济角度,提出建立建设用地和耕地动态监测和预警系统、实施建设用地空间管制制度、建立耕地保护激励机制等相应的优化调控措施和建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Farmland is land essence, The cultivated land protection is one of our basic state policies. It is not only the important measure&way to achieve food security strategy, but also one of the important guarantee to achieve sustainable economic and social development. At present, China is undergoing a period of rapid in which economic development and urbanization&industrialization is advancing by leaps and bounds. Therefore, the demand for construction land will further growth and the difficulty of the cultivated land protection is increasing. Facing the dilemma that the limited arable land resources have to guarantee both "dinner" and "construction",We should not only security industrialization and urbanization, but also to ensure the quality of cultivated land and food security still further. And the problem is more outstanding in the economic developed area and have become the "bottle-neck" to restricte the development of regional economy society.Taking the typical developed economy area--Foshan, Guangdong province, as an example, based on the statistics and spatial analysis methods, the dissertation analyzes the characteristics of cultivated land change in Foshan.And these comprehensive methods,including correlation analysis, area time series analysis, regression analysis etc.,are used in the dissertation to study the driving mechanism of foshan cultivated land use changes. And based on the scenario analysis combined with space simulation technology, three kinds of land dynamic change scene are constructed, and three situations of cultivated land space pattern are simulated. Under these situations,the dissertation analyzes the characteristics of land use of Foshan in2015and2030. Finally, according to the characteristics of construction land expansion and the spatial distribution of cultivated land in Foshan, The study puts forward systematically the policies and measures of cultivated land protection from the standpoints of technology, legal and economic. Research results show that:(1)The situation of cultivated land protection in Foshan is comparison severe.and the main driving factors of farmland change are population, GDP, per capita GDP and construction land, fixed assets investment and gross industrial production. The correlation analysis by SPSS shows that the quantity of cultivated land correlates dramaticlly with the population, GDP, per capita GDP and construction land, fixed assets investment and gross industrial production, and correlation coefficients are respectively-0.952、-0.891、-0.874、-0.893、-0.956and-0.869.The construction land expansion caused by above factors is the major effect factors of cultivated land space layout changing.(2) The major effect factor of cultivated land space layout changes is the construction land expansion. Foshan construction land can be divided into three decision-making modes,including the model of giving priority to construction land development, the mode of giving priority to protecting farmland and the mode of integrating the development and farmland protection. By using SLEUTH mode, the paper simulates the city expansion characteristics in2015and2030under three modes mentioned above. Based on scenario I, urban growth mode with centrifugal extension expansion is given priority to, construction land use change drastically. Although urban use economic output is growing rapidly, also will be accompanied with adverse consequences, such as cultivated land losing by large scale, ecological risk increasing quickly etc.; Based on scenario II, urban growth mode is centripetal filling and internal renewal and ecological protection mainly. Construction land use change rhythm and cultivated land change get a control, cultivated land and ecological get good protection, but land resources "bottleneck" restriction is relatively prominent; Based on scenario Ⅲ, the urban growth mode is primarily the construction land expansion in urban and rural areas, by edge growth complementary, have a tendency to sustainable development.The urban sprawl in the scale and speed is between two scenarios above. This is a "discount medium" construction land development mode of balancing development and protection requirements, and it is also the most reference value of the urban and rural land-use optimization scheme.(3) The spatial distribution characteristics of cultivated land is notable in different scenario. Based on scenario Ⅰ,farmland&mulberry fish ponds will reduce with large scale and fast speed, the cultivated land will reduce49%, at the rate of reduction2.2%per year. Mulberry fish ponds will reduce62%, at reducing rate2.8%per year. Farmland is mainly distributed in the west of Gaoming, the northern of Sanshui, and mulberry fish ponds are scattered mainly in Gaoming,Sanshui, Shunde and Nanhai. Mulberry fish ponds, this artificial ecosystem in Shunde and Nanhai will gradually disappear; Based on scenario Ⅱ, the loss of farmland&mulberry fish ponds, will be strictly controlled, the farmland will reduce13%or so, at reducing rate0.6%per year. Mulberry fish ponds, reduce about15%, at reducing rate around0.7%. The cultivated land is mainly distributed in the northeast and south of Sanshui, the northwest of Gaoming,and the southeast of Nanhai. Mulberry fish ponds are mainly distributed in Shunde, the southeast of Nanhai, the southwest of Sanshui and the northeast of Gaoming; Based on scenario Ⅲ, the shrinking of farmland and mulberry fish ponds are effectively controlled, the cultivated land will reduce29%, at the rate of reduction1.3%per year. Mulberry fish.ponds, reduce about36%, at reducing rate around1.6%per year. The main distribution of farmland is in northwest of Gaoming, the northeast of Sanshui,the southeastern of Nanhai. Mulberry fish ponds are mainly distributed in the mid-west of shunde,the southwest of Nanhai, and the northeast of Gaoming. Scenario Ⅲ is a fold medium farmland layout optimization scene, and it is also the most reference value of the farmland optimization scheme.(4) Finally,based on the simulation results and the development characteristics in Foshan, From the standpoints of technology, legal and economic,the dissertation puts forward the policies and measures of cultivated land protection, such as to implement the mechanisms of dynamic monitoring and advance-warning about construction land and the farmland, to implement construction land space control system, to establish incentive mechanism of cultivated land protection,更多还原