【作者】 刘小峰；

【导师】 盛昭瀚；

【作者基本信息】 南京大学 ， 管理科学与工程（专业学位）， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 在流域水环境的污染与治理的过程中存在复杂性,可能会涌现一些难以把握的复杂系统行为,使得认识流域污染问题及其制定有效的控制方案变得困难。这要求研究者和政策制定者必须改变观念、转变思路,更多地关注多主体行为以及他们之间的交互产生的复杂性。计算实验方法在社会科学各个领域的应用逐渐体现出其强大的优势,使用计算实验方法研究社会科学问题具有开创性的意义。水环境污染与治理系统作为一类典型的复杂社会经济环境系统,其复杂性特性对其研究方法提出了一定的要求,而计算实验方法则可以较好的解决这一问题。本文以太湖流域为例,主要采用计算实验和定性定量方法重点研究了流域水环境治理模式问题,主要结论有：(1)、太湖水污染问题是一个由人参与并主导的要素众多、层次复杂、关系错综、目标功能多样的社会经济自然复杂系统问题,问题的认识与解决应该考虑系统管理和复杂性管理的思想与方法。(2)、太湖水污染治理正处在协调对象和参与对象变化的转型期,当前以环境容量为总量为指导通过自上而下分配排污量和削减量的控制方案将面临极大挑战。为此提出了适应性管理模式,同时基于适应性管理提出了太湖水环境污染物排放控制体系的构建框架,突出适应性管理平台、适应性评审机制、科学研究及公众与基层单位参与在污染物控制中的重要作用。(3)、基于复杂自适应系统理论构建了社会经济环境系统模型,采用计算实验方法研究了系统在经济优先和水环境保护优先两种管理模式下的动态演化规律。结果表明：在综合考虑社会、经济、水环境的基础上,两种管理模式均能在一定程度上实现经济和就业的增长,同时改善水环境。环境保护优先模式虽能有效保护水环境,却会牺牲部分经济发展和就业保证。不同地区在演化过程中表现出差异性,常州和湖州经济获得较快增长；苏州、上海在就业上做出较大贡献；无锡和苏州水环境改善效果最为明显。(4)、针对污水处理项目运营风险高、企业偷排行为控制难问题,基于计算实验方法研究了污水处理项目运营与排污者行为在4种不同情景下的动态变化规律。结果表明：合理的静态定价策略要优于运营商动态定价策略；动态外部环境既给污水处理项目的运营带来风险,又给政府对企业的监管带来不便；单纯的市场价格机制或政府监管机制很难有效控制偷排现象,也不一定能实现居民的节水减排,企业和运营商的逐利行为可能会使得目标落空。(5)、考虑异质同类产品及不同类型的生产者与消费者,基于复杂自适应系统理论构建清洁生产技术演化模型,研究了产品竞争与供应链压力下清洁技术路径的演化规律。研究结果发现过分依赖市场的自由竞争不一定会提高产品的品质与环境水平,特别是在清洁生产技术处于萌发发展阶段；同样,过分地引进清洁生产技术则极有可能损害传统技术生产者的利益,给社会带来负面影响；而适度地引导与控制清洁技术的推广与应用,将有可能出现传统技术生产者与清洁技术生产者相互协调发展的良性竞争格局,既提升产品的品质与环境水平,又有效降低产品价格,形成社会多赢局面。计算实验结果还揭示了顾客消费行为偏好对技术系统演化的影响,发现传统技术产品将很难进入到一个环保型意识较高的地区或国家；相反,清洁技术产品进入一个环保意识较低的地区或国家却有机会获得一定的市场份额,形成细分市场的竞争格局。更多还原

【Abstract】 The complexity during water pollution and governance in basin may emergence some complex system behavior and cause difficult between understanding basin contamination and formulating effective control plan. Simultaneously, it requests the researcher and the policy maker should translate concept and way with paying more attention to the complexity which caused by interactive behavior between multiply participants. Computational experiments show significance on the research of behaviors, emergency, and the relation between micro-level and macro-level systems. As a typical complex social economy environment system, the water environmental polluting and the governing system is a suitable study subject to the method of computational experiments which to be a good solution for solving basin complexity. This paper take the Tai Lake basin as an example to investigate governance modes of Water environment based on computational experiment and the qualitative quantitative method. The main conclusion included:(1) The problem of water pollution in Basin is a complex natural systematic issue leads by human with which numerous elements, different levels, complex relationship, and multi-objectives, will lead question understanding and the solution should consider the thought and the method of system management and complexity management(2) The current situation of Taihu can be seen as a transformation, which means domestic pollution, nonpoint source pollution and new source pollution are getting more serious, while an increasing number of stakeholders and scholars take Taihu issue as their research object. Such transformation brings about more uncertainty and complexity for pollution control, further challenge current control formula, which based on the total environmental volume and makes plan about how large amount one polluter can legally emission or should reduce from top to bottom. So that the method to make an adaptive management-based emission control formula for Taihu Lake, with a sepcial emphases on adaptive management platform, scientific research and public participation of pollution control, rose to meet the ever-changing stuation.(3) The system model has been built on the basis of complex adaptive system theory in order to explore evolution law of socio-economic environment system under different governance modes. Taking computational experiment method, it demonstrates the dynamics of economic growth, employment, and water pollutants discharge which are caused by agriculture and industry development under the governance modes of economic development priority as well as environmental protection priority. The evolutionary result demonstrates that both the two modes not only promote economical growth and employment, on the basis of comprehensive consideration of society, economics and water environment, but also improve water environment protection. However, environment protection priorities mode is more efficient in water environment protection, although it sacrifice economic and employment growth on certain extent meanwhile. There are some discrepancies in different regions of Taihu Lake basin. Their detail discrepancies can be illustrated as follows:economics accesses the faster growth in Changzhou and Huzhou, employment gets greater increase in Suzhou and Shanghai, and water environment has the most obvious improvement in Wuxi and Suzhou. In addition, the evolutionary process shows less insatiability for the environment protection priorities mode.(4) Aiming at the high-risk of sewage treatment projects operation and the difficulty of control illegal emission, four kinds of computational experiment scenarios are constructed based on whether fluctuations between discharge information and sewage disposal price or not. Then the mechanism of formation of pollution charge, polluters’behaviors, government regulation and public restriction are built, simultaneity, some indexes, such as tolerance degree, demand elasticity, were chosen to analysis the changes of behaviors and nature of enterprises or residences under the triple restriction from economic pressure, social influence and governmental regulation. Finally, computational experiment was used to simulate the dynamic changing of sewage treatment project operation and polluters’behavior in four kinds of situations. The result shows that reasonable static pricing strategy superior to dynamic operator-leading pricing strategy, dynamic external environment lead to high risk for both sewage treatment project operation and illegal emission control, neither pure market-driven pricing regime nor governmental regulation can prevent illegal emission or improve residents to save water and reduce emission, the profit-pursuiting nature of firms and operators will fail to fulfill the objective.(5) Considering heterogeneous but similar product and different type producer and consumer, a clean technology evolutionary modeling is built based on the theory of complex adaptive systems to study the evolution law of clean technology trajectories under competitive selection and supply chain pressure. Computational experiment was used to simulate dynamic changes, demonstrate diversity of evolution characteristics, and analysis evolution influence of different competition situation and initial customer proportion. The results shows that free completion intensity-dependent cannot be ensure enhance product quality and environment level, especially as primary stage of clean technology development, as same as clean technology import intensity-dependent will damage to traditional technology adaptor and causing negative influence to local society. However, it will have the possibility to appear multi-win phenomenon of positive competition and harmonious development between clean and traditional technology, concomitancy with promoting product quality and environment level, and reducing product price, when moderately guidance and control clean technology promotion and application. The computation experiment results have also disclosed how the customer consumer behaviors influence of technology evolution system. The product of traditional technology will be very difficult to enter to a mature market with high environmental protection consciousness; on the contrary, the clean technical product would have opportunity to obtain certain market share in a less-consciousness environmental protection market and will form market segmentation in the late evolution period. In addition, the result indicated system will keep a status of relatively balance with the producer lacking motivation of technical innovation after some experience periods under gradual innovation.更多还原