【作者】 谢源；

【导师】 陈如凯；

【作者基本信息】 福建农林大学 ， 农业多功能性产业， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 食糖是关乎国计民生的重要农产品。近年来,食糖产业的国内发展和国际发展已经受到越来越多的重视。本研究的目的在于梳理、分析世界食糖主产国(地区)的产业政策,利用计量分析的方法,找出适合我国食糖产业发展的经验及对策,对我国的食糖产业提出有益的意见及建议。本文首先介绍了中国食糖产业现状,重点对我国食糖价格的影响因素进行了实证分析,对我国历年来甘蔗产业的总体产业效率以及甘蔗主产区的产业效率进行了实证分析。其次,对世界食糖主产国(地区)的发展情况进行了介绍,包括巴西、澳大利亚、泰国、印度、欧盟以及美国在内,重点对美国的食糖产业进行了实证分析,包括美国食糖价格所受到的产业政策影响,以及美国食糖消费量的季节性分析。再次,对世界食糖主产国(地区)的产业政策中值得我国借鉴的地方加以梳理和总结,最后,提出了适合我国国情的意见和建议。研究结果表明：(一)从我国食糖价格模型结果来看,目前我国食糖价格受到国际和国内两方面因素的影响。其中,国际方面对我国食糖价格的影响将越来越大,目前国内影响因素中,CPI对国内食糖价格影响较大,这也较为符合我国目前的国情。从甘蔗主产区的产业效率的模型结果来看,从2003至2011年,我国甘蔗产业的总体效率出现不升反退的现象,产业效率倒退的主要原因是受到产量的影响,同时,用工成本、物质成本等的提高,使得产业的总体效率低下。从历年来各个主产区的平均效率排名结果来看,琼北产区由于土地成本的低廉导致效率排名第一,其次分别是粤西产区,桂中南产区以及滇西南产区。各个主产区都存在机械化程度较低,甘蔗产量震荡变化,各种成本增高,甘蔗产业利润率偏低,产业发展受限等问题。(二)从美国食糖价格模型结果来看,美国产业政策中价格支持每变动1个单位,会影响美国原糖价格同向变动0.2042个单位,类似的,对于精制糖价格来说,价格支持每变动1个单位,会影响美国精制糖价格同向变动0.7693个单位。说明美国政府的产业政策对平稳市场起到了较大的作用。通过美国食糖消费量的季节性分析模型得出结论：甘蔗糖消费量的44%可以通过加工商贮存量、甘蔗糖产量以及上一期甘蔗糖的消费量来解释,其中,加工商贮存量的季节性影响较为显著,而价格及产量的季节性影响则不显著;甜菜糖消费量的58%可以通过加工商贮存量、甜菜糖产量以及上一期甜菜糖的消费量来解释,其中,加工商的贮存量及产量的季节性影响较为显著,而价格的季节性影响则不显著。说明在美国政府的产业政策支持下,价格的变动对消费量的季节性影响不显著。(三)根据世界食糖主产国(地区)产业政策对我国的借鉴,得出了以下方面结论及建议,主要包括：设立行业管理委员会,细化各个主产区产业规划目标、加强国内食糖价格保护、改善调控机制、立法强化机械化程度、打击走私糖。更多还原

【Abstract】 Sugar is one of the major agricultural products relating to national economy and people’s livelihood. In recent years, the contemporary development of the domestic and international sugar industry has attracted more and more attention. By collecting and analyzing the industrial polices of the main sugar producing countries, this research aims to find out the suitable experience and strategies for China, and also tries to provide beneficial suggestions and advices.This article firstly introduces the current situation of sugar industry, focusing on the influence factors of sugar prices in China. The industrial efficiency of the overall sugarcane industry and the main sugar cane producing areas are analyzed in the paper. Second, the development of the world’s major sugar producing countries (regions) are introduced, including Brazil, Thailand, India, the European Union, Australia and the United States. This paper focuses on the sugar industry in the United States and carries on the empirical analysis, including the sugar price effect by the industrial policy, and the seasonal analysis of sugar consumption. For the world’s major sugar producing countries (regions),the worthy reference for our country industrial policy are summarized, finally, puts forward the opinions and suggestions for China’s sugar industry.In this paper, the main research are:(one) Combined with China’s industrial policy theoretical analysis and empirical research. The paper made two ecomonical models. The first sugar price model by using the method of stepwise regression analyzed the influence factors of sugar prices in our country,and drew the conclusion: Sugar prices in our country, mainly affected by the international sugar price, the price of crude oil and the influence of the CPI. The second model using super efficiency DEA model analyzed the efficiency of the country’s sugar cane industry from2003to2011and drew the conclusion:From2003to2003, although the sugarcane planting in China area was increasing, the efficiency of sugarcane industry in China did not improve, and reduced year by year. In addition, although Qiong North yield and mechanization degree is not high, but because of the lowest cost of land of Hainan province, the Qiong North yield effiencienfy was the top one of all the main producing areas.The second one was the Yue West region, then the Gui Central and South region and Dian Southwest region. Each producing area had the same problems including the low degree of mechanization, sugarcane yield volatility change, higher costs, low sugar cane industry profit margins and so on.(two) Combining the theories of the American industry policy analysis, the paper carried on the empirical research of the sugar market. The first model used the stepwise regression method to determine the specific and stable impact of the America’s sugar industry polices to the sugar prices. In the model, the paper analyzed the factors that affect the United States sugar prices, including21specific indicators from the three main respects about the production and marketing situation, the policy factors and other factors, then established multiple stepwise regression model, the cane sugar prices and beet sugar prices of the United States had been analyzed by the regression method, the conclusion showed:each1unit change of the price support policy factors, would affect0.2042units changes of the prices of raw sugar, and for refined beet sugar prices, each1 unit change of the price support policy factors, would affect0.7693units changes of the prices of refined sugar. The conclusion suggested that the U.S. government’s policy had played a large role to the stable of the market. The second model used regression model with the virtual variable to analyze the seasonal factors of the American sugar consumption, the conclusion showed that44%of the cane sugar consumption could be explained by the processors’stocks, the cane sugar production and cane sugar consumption of the last period, among these factors, the seasonal effects of the processors’ stocks was significant, but the seasonal effects of the price and production were not significant; and58%of the beet sugar consumption could be explained by the processors’stocks, the beet sugar production and consumption of the last period, among these factors, the seasonal effects of the processors’stocks and production were significant, but effects of the price was not significant.(three) According to the present situation of sugar industry and the polices of world’s major sugar producing countries, such as Brazil, Australia and other industrial policies this paper makes the conclusions of the industrial policies of the United States and the enlightenments from the world’s major sugar producing nations. This papers also makes some suggestions from the industrial layout, price protection, improvement of the regulatory mechanism, legislation, mechanization, anti-smuggling policies and so on..更多还原