【作者】 李亚军；

【导师】 张彩虹；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 林业经济管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 2003年以来,中央政府出台了系列关于加快林业发展和推进集体林权制度改革的相关政策和决定,破解了制约林业发展的诸多制度约束,为我国集体林区农户创造了前所未有的发展契机。然而,由于林业生产经营过程中的固有风险与我国较落后的森林保险体制,致使广大林农的生产经营面临较高的风险且遭到损失后无法获得合理补偿。2008年,低温雨雪冰冻灾害导致包括农户在内的林业生产经营主体遭受严重的经济损失。据不完全统计,19个省份森林受灾面积达3.4亿亩,占全国森林总面积的比重超过10%。由于没有保险,广大林农在林木损毁后得不到任何补偿,甚至连受灾木竹清理和再造林成本都无法支付,林业生产经营活动、正常生活都受到很大影响。因此,如何有效优化森林保险制度,完善森林保险市场,有效降解森林经营行业的经济风险,提高农户等林主从事森林经营的积极性,成为现阶段推进林业市场化发展的一项重要议题。本文围绕我国森林业发展的关键问题展开研究,以期进一步完善我国森林保险理论,为推动我国森林保险业的健康发展提供科学决策依据。研究内容包括：(1)对森林保险进行概念界定,从森林保险规章制度和森林保险市场规模视角,对森林保险业的发展历史和现状进行评述；(2)探析了森林保险费的计算模型,并讨论森林保险费的决定因素；(3)基于对农户风险态度的界定和度量,对农户风险态度现状及影响因素进行定量研究；(4)基于农户、民营林场和林业合作社视角,采用定量和案例分别分析三类森林经营主体购买森林保险的意愿及影响因素；(6)对森林保险财政补贴的效用进行了定量分析；最后,提出促进我国森林保险业发展的政策建议。本研究为森林经营主体视角和森林保险业行业视角相结合的实证研究。文章使用的一手数据和二手资料主要来自于在江西、湖南等地开展的实地调研。文章综合运用了定性分析和定量分析相结合的研究方法。定性研究主要运用于界定森林保险、森林保险业等概念,农户森林经营风险态度等,以及基于定量分析结果对农户保险购买意愿、财政补贴效用开展的进一步探析。在定量分析中,首先采用了描述统计分析方法,呈现了风险中立型、风险偏好型、风险中立型的农户比重,样本农户的家庭人口特征、森林资源特征、经济状况、森林保险购买意愿,森林保险市场不同主体对于财政补贴的评价等基本情况；其次针对农户风险态度影响因素分析采用了多元有序Probit模型,对农户森林保险购买意愿构建了二分类Probit模型。案例分析法用于分析民营林场和林业专业合作社的森林保险购买意愿及其成因。本文主要结论如下：第一,我国森林保险业的发展历程可以大致分为三个时期,当前森林保险业处于快速的发展时期,相关制度不断完善,得到了政府部门的大力支持,林业在经济社会中的重要性不断提升,这是森林保险业快速发展的根本动力。第二,森林保险费由净保险费和风险溢价组成,取决于森林价值、森林损失概率和保险公司的期望损失概率等因素的共同影响。第三,样本农户中风险规避型的比重为41.64%、风险中立的为14.51%、风险偏好的为36.91%、风险不清的为6.94%,农户风险态度受户主年龄、家庭劳动力数量、林地地块数、是否认为森林权属安全、是否是林业合作组织成员、家庭林业劳动力投入等因素的影响显著。第四,36.3%的样本农户具有森林保险购买意愿,购买意愿主要受家庭劳动力数量、非农工作人员数、用材林地面积、是否认为权属安全、是否合作组织成员、家庭林业劳动力投入、是否认为灾害损失严重、是否认为风险严重等因素的影响显著；多数民营林场和林业专业合作社具有森林保险购买意愿,且已购买森林保险,购买意愿和行为主要受政策因素影响。第五,财政补贴对于森林保险业的发展发挥了积极作用,但综合考虑保险公司、投保人、管理部门的收益与成本,财政补贴可能存在低效。本研究提出的政策建议为：第一,森林保险得到了各级政府的财政补贴,但不能忽视森林保险产品的商品属性；第二,确保森林保险市场的主导地位,确立政府及其职能部门在森林保险业发展中的监督与服务职能；第三,充分发挥市场机制作用,降低森林保险业的运行成本,提高运行效率；第四,优化森林保险产品的设计机制,根据市场需求多样化森林保险产品；第五,优化森林保险的定价机制,满足具有差异性的支付意愿；第六,优化森林保险的投保机制,为投保人创造便利；第七,优化森林保险的灾害认定和赔付机制,降低保险公司工作成本；第八,优化森林保险业的发展环境,促进森林保险业的健康发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since2003, the Central Government has introduced a series of policies for speeding up forestry development and promoting the reform of collective forest rights, which cracked institutional constraints restricting the forestry development, brought considerable opportunities for peasant household at collective forest area in our country. However, due to the inherent risks in the process of forestry production and business operation as well as our relatively backward insurance system for forest, the general foresters faced higher risk during forestry production and operation and were unable to get reasonable compensation after loss. For instance, low temperature sleet freezing disaster in2008led to serious economic losses to subject of forestry production operators, including farmers. According to incomplete statistics,19provinces including340million Mu forest have been affected by the disaster, accounting for more than10%of the total area of the national forest. Lack of insurance, the general foresters can’t get any compensation after the damage. They even can’t pay for the cleaning and reforestation. Forestry production and operation activities even their normal life were affected b a lot.Therefore, how to effectively optimize the forest insurance system, perfect the forest insurance market, reduce the economic risk of forest management industry, raise the enthusiasm of foresters engaged in forestry production and business operation, has become an important issue to promoting the development of the forestry marketization at present stage.This research focuses on development of forest insurance industry in China. Firstly, this paper make definition on forest insurance and relevant key concepts, and constract analytical framework on risk theory and forest management risk theory. Secondly, the paper makes description and evaluation on developmental history and current situation of forest insurance industry from aspects of forest insurance regulation and institution, and scale of forest insurance market. Thirdly, the paper discusses calculation model on risk probability theory, and discuss determinants on forest insurance premium. Fourthly, farm householders’risk attitudes are defined and measured, and then factros having impacts on the attitudes are quantitatively analyzed. Fifthly, three types of forest managers’ willingness to buy forest insurance are indicated, and correspondingly influential factors are determined by regression analysis, and case study. Sixthly, utility of financial subsidy on forest insurance is analyzed by employing cost-benefit theory. Finaly, policy suggestions are discussed.The research is an empirical study focusing on forest manager and forest insurance industry. One-hand data and two-hand material used in the paper are collected from field investigations in Jiangxi and Hunan province. Qualitative, quantitative and case analysis methods are jointly used in the paper. The qualitative analysis is mainly used to make definition on forest insurance, forest insurance industry, and farm householders’forest management risk attitude, and to make further analysis on purchasing willingness of farm household and utility of financial subsidy based on quantitative analysis results. Quantitative analysis methods consist of descriptive analysis method and regression analysis method. The descriptive analysis is used to describe proportion of farm household with risk-neutral, risk-averse, and risk-pursuing attitudes, and demographic characteristics, forest plots characteristics, economic situation, willingness to buy forest insurance, and evaluation of different stakeholders on forest insurance. Multiple ordered probit model is used to examine factors having impacts on farmers’risk attitudes. Bianry probit model is used to analysis farmers’ willingness to buy forest insurance. Case study method is used to study willingness to buy forest insurance of private forest firm and forestry cooperative.Main conclusions are drawn as followings. Firstly, developmental history of forest insurance industry in China can be divided into three stages. Currently, forest insurance industry is at the stage with rapid developmental speed, and corresponding institutions are kept to be strengthened. The development of forest insurance industry gains substantive support from government, while increasing importance of forestry to social economy system is dominantly driving force to develop forest insurance industry. Secondly, the forest insurance premium, which is determined by joint influences of forest value, expectance loss probability of forest, and expectance loss probability of insurance company, consists of pure insurance premium and risk premium. Thirdly, farm householders with risk-averse attitude account for41.64%to whole household sample, farm householders with risk-neutral attitude account for14.51%, farm household with risk-pursuing attitudes account for36.91%, and farm household without certain risk attitude account for6.94%. Farmers’risk attitudes are significantly affect by age of head of household, amount of self-owned labor force, number of forest plots, whether consider forest property right be secure, whether be member of forest cooperative, and amount of labor force into forest management. Fourthly,36.3%of sample household are willing to buy forest insurance, and their willingness to buy are affected significantly by amount of self-owned labor force, amount of family member in off-farm work, timber forestland area, whether consider forest property right be secure, whether be member of forest cooperative, amount of labor force into forest management, whether loss caused by disaster be serious, and whether risk be serious. Most private forest firm and forestry cooperative have willingness to buy forest insurance, and some even have bought forest insurance. Their willingness and purchasing behaviors are affected by policy factors. Fifthly, financial subsidy plays positive influence on development of forest insurance industry. If taking into account of benefit and cost of insurance company, forest manager having bought insurance, and administration department together, financial subsidy could be lack of effectiveness. Policy suggestions are put forward by the study as followings. Firstly, development of forest insurance is facilitated by financial subsidy of central, provincial and county level governments, while it should not be neglected that forest insurance has commercial property. Secondly, marketing mechanism should play dominant roles in development of forest insurance market, and government and affiliated functional department should only monitor and offer service to the development of market. Thirdly, the operational cost of forest insurance industry should be reduced by good use of marketing mechanism to improve operational efficiency. Fourthly, forest insurance products could be more diversified by improvement design mechanism of forest insurance products. Fifthly, different willingness to pay should be satisfied better by improvement pricing mechanism of forest insurance. Sixthly, forest manager can participate in forest insurance more conveniently by improvement of participatory mechanism. Seventhly, work cost of insurance company is to be reduced by improvement of disaster measuring and repayment mechanism. Eighthly, the forest insurance industry is to be promoted in healthy development mode by improvement of developmental environment.更多还原