【作者】 曹蕾；

【导师】 徐建华；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 地图学与地理信息系统， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 近年来,生态文明建设正逐渐成一种自上而下的共识,相关理论研究和实践探索都取得了长足的进步。生态文明建设评价的重要性日益凸显,已经成为学术研究热点。但是,目前的研究多是主观确定指标体系,同质化现象严重,而基于数据自身特点,能针对不同区域开展差异化评价的思想尚未出现；多是单独评价区域生态文明建设的某一个领域,而将整个生态文明建设作为一个复杂系统全面、细致考查的研究较为少见；多是生态文明理论体系的探讨,而实证性的、指导实践的研究则比较零散,不成体系。如何在区域差异背景下科学评价生态文明建设成果,已经成为了影响区域发展的关键命题。本文以动态筛选指标为落脚点,以实现差异化评价为主线,以构建模型为手段,分别从经济、社会、生态、环境等四个方面入手,构建开放性的区域生态文明建设评价指标体系,采用理论研究与案例分析相结合的方式,综合运用多种计量分析模型,从时间-空间和静态-动态两个不同的层面,对区域生态文明建设评价展开深入的研究。通过研究,本文获得以下成果与结论：(1)通过理论分析生态文明的内涵、特征和基本构成,深入辨析评价的关键问题,解析了生态文明建设的本质特征,为后期初选及进一步筛选指标提供了指导思想；(2)在吸取国内外相关研究成果基础上,提出了开放性生态文明评价指标体系的构建思路,综合多方面的考量,建立起一个能面向大部分区域的生态文明建设评价指标备选库,为实现差异化评价提供了评判标准和替代指标；(3)将神经网络模型引入指标筛选流程,构建了一个非线性的指标筛选模型,能够依据数据自身的特点从备选库中动态挑选出适合区域特征的指标,从而真正实现了客观选取指标,差异化评价不同区域的目标；(4)针对现有评价模型的缺陷,通过构建集对分析模型、空间统计分析模型和元胞自动机模型,从静态评价、空间分析和态势推演三个角度,构建不同的生态文明建设评价模型,深入挖掘出指标体系中所包含的信息；(5)选取长三角地区作为典型样区,建立模型筛选指标,构建了适合地区特点的指标体系,分析显示：长三角地区生态文明建设评价指标体系中经济总量类指标作用减弱,反映产业结构变化的指标更为重要,生态和环境类指标的贡献较低。然后基于三类模型全方位地评价了长三角地区生态文明建设,研究结果表明：总体上看,长三角地区生态文明建设水平较高,但各市具有较大差异,具有显著的空间自相关性,发展态势整体向好。本文的研究从理论层面上提出了利用开放性指标体系差异化评价生态文明建设的机制,完善了生态文明建设理论体系,为加快推进区域生态文明建设和区域统筹发展提供了科学的决策参考；从研究方法上,首次提出了先建立备选指标库,再利用神经网络模型动态筛选的评价指标体系构建思路,首次尝试引入元胞自动机模型,以时空分析视角组合多种模型全面评价区域生态文明建设,丰富了区域生态文明建设评价研究的研究手段,为科学规划和调控区域生态文明建设发展提供了技术支撑。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, the construction of ecological civilization is gradually into a top-down consensus, theoretical research and practice have made considerable progress. The importance of ecological civilization evaluation is becoming increasingly prominent, and attracted widespread attention in academia. However, most studies evaluated only one area of regional ecological civilization construction, and the comprehensive and detailed study that look at the construction of ecological civilization into a complex system is relatively rare. Research on the theoretical system of ecological civilization is more and more, at the same time, the empirical and guidance research are fragmented and fragmentation. Many studies have determined subjectivity index system and have appeared serious homogenization, and the studies that based on the characteristics of the data itself and reflected the ideology of regional differences have not yet appeared.How to evaluate the ecological civilization construction achievements scientifically in background of regional differences has become a critical proposition which impact on regional development. This study starts from four aspects that is Economy, society, ecology and environment respectively, putting index selection as the foothold, seeing differentiated evaluation as the main line, putting model building as a means. On this basis, the quantitative index system of regional ecological civilization construction is constructed. Evaluation of regional ecological civilization is study in depth from the two different levels of time-space and static-dynamic, by a combination of theoretical research and case studies and comprehensive use of various econometric analysis models.Through research, the following results and conclusions were obtained:(1) The connotation and characteristics of ecological civilization is clear by theoretical analysis, the key issues of evaluation of ecological civilization construction are understood in depth, and the essential characteristic of ecological civilization construction is analyzed. This provides a guiding principle for the index selection and filter in the late.(2) After lessons relevant indicator system at home and abroad, the theory and the scientific method to support the index system of ecological civilization construction are studied. After multi-disciplinary considerations, an index library of regional ecological civilization construction that able for most of the region is established. It provides differentiation evaluation criteria and alternative indicators.(3) By adding the neural network model to index selection process, a nonlinear index filter model was established. It is able to pick out indexes suitable for regional characteristics from alternative library, realize the objective to select indicators, and thus evaluate different target from different regions.(4) For defects existing evaluation models, by building set pair analysis models, spatial statistical analysis models and cellular automata model, from the static evaluation, spatial analysis and trend deduced three angles, different ecological civilization evaluation model are constructed and the information contained in the index system was exhumed.(5) After selected Yangtze River Delta area as a typical study area, this study filtered index with model and constructed the index system suitable for regional characteristics. Analysis showed that the indexes from the total economy class are weakened, the index reflecting the change of industrial structure is more important, and the contribution from the ecological and environmental class is lower in ecological civilization construction evaluation of the Yangtze River Delta. Then, a comprehensive evaluation of the ecological civilization construction in Yangtze River delta area is given based on three types of models. The results show that the overall level of ecological civilization construction at Yangtze River Delta region is high, intraregional differences is big, the distribution has a significant spatial autocorrelation, and the overall development trend is good.This study presents the differences evaluation mechanisms of ecological civilization construction from the theoretical level, Improves the theoretical system of ecological civilization, and provides a scientific decision-making to accelerate regional ecological civilization construction and regional co-coordinative development. From the research methods, this paper first proposed the construction of an alternative indicator database and use neural network model to improve the accuracy and objectivity of index Filter. With temporal analyze perspective, a comprehensive evaluation of regional ecological civilization construction is given by combined a variety of models. It enriches the research means of regional ecological civilization construction, and provides technical support for scientific planning and regulation of regional ecological civilization construction.更多还原