【作者】 李晶；

【导师】 黄少安； 孙天琦；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 金融学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 产业结构是指国民经济各产业部门之间以及各产业部门内部的构成,它揭示了产业之间的技术经济联系与依存程度,也就是产业之间的关联性。产业结构变化可以理解为：在经济发展过程当中,生产投入要素在各部门之间的变化和由于生产要素投入和生产效率的变化所导致的各部门总产值比重的变动。产业结构变化是经济发展过程中,特别是工业化工程中的重要表现,能够有效的促进经济增长,也是提高经济发展水平的重要途径。党的十八大报告指出：“要加快转变经济发展方式,推动产业结构优化升级。这是关系国民经济全局紧迫而重大的战略任务。”因此,我国产业结构问题的研究有着重要的理论和现实意义。全球气候变化是人类迄今面临的最重大的环境问题,也是21世纪人类面临的最严峻的挑战之一。气候变化主要是由人类活动引起的,解决气候变化问题的根本措施是减少温室气体的人为排放。2003年,英国政府首次提出了“低碳经济”的概念,之后各国纷纷效仿。中国作为世界上最大的碳排放国,同时也是对世界环境高度负责任的国家,发展低碳经济,逐步降低经济发展的二氧化碳排放成为一种必然的选择。在我国,无论是产业结构的优化升级,还是二氧化碳等环境问题的解决和处理,都会受到政策性因素,尤其是产业政策的影响,另一方面,产业政策也会同时对产业结构和环境问题产生相应的影响。因此,产业政策的经济结构效应以及环境效应是值得我们关注和研究的问题。本文针对困扰我国发展的产业结构和二氧化碳排放问题,利用投入-产出结构分解分析理论,通过建立数学模型,以及面板数据回归分析,在多部门框架下对政策性因素如何影响产业结构以及环境问题特别是二氧化碳排放问题进行深入剖析,本文按照两条主线展开。第一条主线是：在分析政策性导向对产业结构影响的基础上,得到政策性导向对产业结构调整的影响途径,然后以我国工业生产部门为样本实证分析了产业的政策性导向对我国产业结构调整的作用力；第二条主线是：实证分析了影响二氧化碳排放量变化六类因素,并以工业部门为样本实证研究了产业政策对二氧化碳排放量的影响；通过测算各部门二氧化碳排放因素的影响力度,分析了能源结构变动、能源强度、技术进步、消费、投资、出口等六大因素对二氧化碳排放的影响,进一步的,分析了产业政策性导向对产业结构进而对环境及二氧化碳排放的影响。最后的结论部分,结合产业政策对工业部门二氧化碳排放量的影响,探讨了我国生产部门尤其是工业部门如何实现低碳化产业结构以及如何实现节能减排目标,期望能为我国优化能源结构、提升能源效率、节能减排,提供有益借鉴,并在此基础上提出合理有效的产业政策。本文共分为六部分：第一部分：导论；第二部分：产业结构和二氧化碳排放研究方法、因素分析等相关文献综述；第三部分：通过建立理论模型,分析在产业结构框架下,影响产业结构变化的因素分析,包括考虑行业异质性条件下,技术进步、产业政策对产业结构的影响；第四部分,以人民日报为代理变量,建立政策性因素即产业政策对产业结构的实证分析,具体分析政策性因素对产业结构的影响。第五部分：投入产出视角下二氧化碳排放的影响因素分析,通过构建我国2002年到2010年间经济-能源-环境可比价格投入产出表,利用投入-产出结构分解分析模型,分解得到影响我国生产部门二氧化碳排放量变动的六大主要动因；第六部分：在产业结构框架下,研究产业政策对产业结构,进而对二氧化碳排放的影响力水平；通过建立回归模型,测度出产业政策对产业结构变化的影响,进而通过建立拓展的结构分解分析模型,测度出产业结构变化导致的二氧化碳排放量的变化；第七部分：探讨了我国工业部门节能减排路径,并从完善能源使用结构、提高能源效率、完善产业结构、加强技术进步、改进消费、投资、出口结构等角度提出相关政策建议。本文的主要观点如下：第一,在不考虑政策性因素的多部门模型中,中间产品的相对产出取决于技术水平与资本的投入；中间产品的资本的相对资本投入取决于相对技术水平、最终产品的需求份额和中间产品在最终产品生产中的弹性；中间产品资本投入的变化取决于中间产品在最终产品中的生产份额以及中间产品的技术水平的相对变化。第二,在考虑政策性因素的前提下,中间产品生产过程中的资本流动由三部分共同作用：1)中间产品的技术水平与中间产品在最终产品生产过程中的替代弹性；2)中间产品的政策性导向；3)在政策性因素影响下,中间产品生产过程中的最终产品投入与资本投入的替代关系。其中第一部分的影响作用与不考虑政策性因素时的影响一致。第三,在政策性因素对产业结构的实证分析中,我们得到,政策性导向的代理变量人民日报产业词频对我国工业总产值的变化有着显著作用。总体而言,政策性因素对产业结构变化的贡献约为10.1%。若按照不同工业部门的性质进行分析,我们发现政策导向对矿产采掘业以及公共服务业的影响较为明显,而对制造业的影响较为薄弱。第四,作为我国能源主要消耗群体和二氧化碳排放主题的生产部门,能源使用结构虽然不断得到优化,但在生产过程中依然对煤炭为代表的化石能源依赖性强,与世界平均水平和发达国家水平存在明显差距。且整体能源效率依然期待改善,节能减排的任务依然艰巨。分行业来看,制造业和采掘业的能源效率有很大改进,能耗强度水平下降明显。相反,电力、煤气及水的生产和供应业的能源效率状况不容乐观。第五,我国生产部门中间投入结构,即经济产业结构也是降低二氧化碳排放的重要动因。因此,如何利用技术进步和创新提高附加价值的投入比重而减少以中间产品为代表的物质资源投入；同时,如何优化经济产业结构来减少二氧化碳的排放也是亟待解决的重要问题。第六,产业政策通过调整产业结构进而对二氧化碳的排放产生着重要的影响,特别是在采掘业和电力、煤气及水的生产供应业。这一方面能为我国制定产业政策来优化二氧化碳排放提供了理论支撑,另一方面也为政策制定提出了更高的要求。每一个政策的制定都不仅应该考虑其经济效益还应该立足政策整个生命周期考虑到其生态环境效益。更多还原

【Abstract】 Industrial structure means the relationship between the industrial sectors, which illustrates the technology or economic correlation between sectors or industry association. Industrial structure changes can be illustrated as:in the economic growth process, the changes of produce inputs among sectors and the sectoral gross output changes caused by the inputs changes. Industrial structure change is the important method to improve the economic growth, which can influence the whole economy. Thus, this issue is critical significant at the theoretical and realistic level.Global climate change is the most significant environmental problem and the severe challenge of the new century. Global climate change causes by the produce activity of human being. The fundamental measure to improve the climate change is reducing the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG).2003, the UA government provides the concept of low carbon economy, which is supported by other governments. In response to the climate change, as the largest country of CO2emission, China must reduce the emission to maintain the sustained economic growth.In China, from the one hands, the industry policy affects the industry structure changes, from the other hands, the industry policy influences the environmental performance according to the industry structure change. Thus, because the economic structural changes potentially exert influence on the environmental performance, we eventually study the economic and environmental impacts of the policy.Under this background, this paper proposes an economic growth model with policy factor to analysis the economic impact of the industry policy, uses panel data model to empirical analysis the policy effect, and provides extended version of SDA to separate the industry effect from the total changes of sectoral CO2emission of China. There are two main clues of this paper. The first one is illustrating the economic effect of the industry policy by proposing the mathematic model to analyze the path of industry policy and by using panel data model to obtain the empirical results of the industry impact. The second clue is decomposing the six factors that influence the CO2emission and decomposing the environmental effect of policy. At last, this paper gives suggestions on the policy-making.The structure of the paper is organized as follows:the background and the introduction are in chapter1. The literature review is given in chapter2. Chapter3proposes a theoretical model to illustrate the impact of the industrial policy on the industrial structural changes. Chapter4uses the proxy variable people’s daily (PD) to construct the panel data model and test the impact of the industrial policy. In order to estimate the contribution of the PD effect on economic structural change, this paper conducts a regression analysis based on the frequency of the PD’s keywords. Chapter5introduces the input-output model and structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to analyze the factors that influence CO2emission. Chapter6proposes an extended version of SDA to separate the industrial policy effect from the total changes of sectoral CO2emission of China. The conclusion is in chapter7.In this paper, the author finds the following interesting issues:In the multi-sector model, if the model neglects the policy factor, the outputs of the intermediate goods depend on the technology level and capital inputs; the relative capital inputs of each intermediate goods is dependent on the relative technology, the relative amount decided by the final demand, and the elasticity of the intermediate goods in the final demand production. In other words, the capital inputs of intermediate goods depend on the relative status in the final demand production and the relative technology.In the multi-sector model, if the model considers the industry policy effect, the capital inputs of intermediate goods depend on3parts. The first part is the relative status in the final demand production and the relative technology, which is consistent with the case without policy. The second part is the policy effect. The third part is the inputs substitution relationship changes in the intermediate goods production.In the empirical analysis, this paper obtains that People’s daily, which is the proxy variable for the industry policy, has a significant effect on the gross output changes. The results show that the PD effect averagely explains10.1%of the total changes of sectoral gross output. Specifically, the PD has a relatively strong impact on mining sectors and utility sectors, while its impact on manufacture sectors is relatively weak.Although the energy structure of our economy has improved, the economy still relies on the fossil energy and the coal, which is different from that of the depended countries. The energy efficiency still needs to be enhanced. Specifically, the manufacture sectors and the mining sectors have been enhanced, while the utility sectors are relatively low.The technology changes or the Leontief matrix are the important factor to reduce the CO2emission. Thus, improving the technology is important in the sustained economic development.The industrial policy proxy variable (PD) has a positive marginal effect on the sectoral CO2emission.更多还原