【作者】 何华玲；

【导师】 王卓君；

【作者基本信息】 苏州大学 ， 政治学理论， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 2010年年底的中东北非地区，发生了一场持续至今、波及到几乎整个阿拉伯世界的政治大动荡。这场源起于一位突尼斯年轻人自焚的偶发事件，最终点燃了长期以来中东北非地区强人政治下民众积压的愤怒之火，如多米诺骨牌一般迅速蔓延到整个中东北非地区，给中东北非阿拉伯地区带来了一场意义深远的历史变革。它吹皱了阿拉伯地区看似一潭死水的专制体制，给许多研究者不曾看好的中东地区的民主转型带来了可能。然而，这场被许多西方媒体称之为“阿拉伯之春”的社会运动，却在中东北非阿拉伯地区具有相同历史文化背景的不同国家，产生了不同的政治后果。在出现一系列社会抗争运动的国家中，影响最大的是突尼斯、埃及、也门、叙利亚和利比亚这五个威权体制国家，而海湾地区如沙特和巴林等君主制国家则在经历短期的社会振荡之后，以不同方式恢复了之前的统治秩序。发生政治转型的5个国家，都是伊斯兰信仰的威权主义国家；除叙利亚的巴萨尔在2000年才继承执政30多年的父亲，执政时间稍短之外，其他四个国家的执政者都在20年以上；经济发展问题很大，但是同时也获得了一定的发展。本文针对这场政治转型，力图分析在该地区相同的文化背景和威权体制下的国家，发生政治转型的相似的条件、行动者的不同策略选择及引发的不同转型的过程、绩效以及转型的前景。政治转型进程中，五个国家行动者的策略选择各异，造成了不同的具体的转型途径，埃及和突尼斯的统治者退出政坛，也门的执政者通过谈判下台，叙利亚和利比亚发生了大规模的内战，叙利亚的内战还在继续；不同的转型路径导致完全不同的绩效和转型前景。本文旨在相同的历史背景下，分析什么样的具体转型过程把不同国家引向不同的未来，以及行动者的策略选择对转型过程的决定性意义。本文正文一共包括7个部分。导论部分对本文的研究背景、理论基础、研究设计和研究方法进行了讨论，明确了本文研究的理论价值和实践意义，提出了本文的研究思路和主要需要解决的问题。第一章对有关中东地区政治转型和民主化问题的研究进行了梳理，指出直到2010年之前，“中东例外论”是西方民主化问题研究的主流认知，尽管中东地区及伊斯兰世界的民主化并非没有一点成绩，如土耳其的民主化成果，但中东在亨廷顿所说的民主化“第三波”中的缺位，则似乎进一步强化了民主不适于中东的偏见。尽管存在着这些偏见，但对于中东北非地区政治民主化问题的研究，仍然已经有了一定的进展和相对比较集中的核心主题。对于中东北非地区政治民主化进程的艰难性、伊斯兰教传统与民主化的关系以及影响中东北非政治民主化的影响因素和条件（包括石油资源、经济发展水平、公众态度、公民社会、政体类型和地缘政治格局等）等相关理论问题，进行了较为广泛和深入的探讨，相关文献的积累也已达到了一定水平。而国内的相关研究相对薄弱，高质量的研究中东北非地区政治转型的成果不多见。第二章是全文的重点，尝试对本文的理论框架进行初步构建，提出了政治转型问题的基本分析框架：“结构-行动者-过程-绩效”。这其中，民主化的周期论和条件论属于政治转型的结构分析，主要分析了经济、文化传统、体制和制度这些结构性因素对政治转型的影响；“行动者-过程-绩效”分析则是政治转型的过程分析，指出政治转型中的各方行动者和他们的策略选择建构了转型进程、路径和方式，也最终影响到不同国家政治转型的绩效。结构性条件对政治转型的作用举足轻重，但行动者及其行为才是决定政治转型过程及其结果的最具能动性的变量。第三章具体分析了中东北非阿拉伯国家政治转型的结构情境：该地区盛行的强人-威权体制，系统地分析了该地区的威权体制的类型、盛行原因和特点；伊斯兰的文化传统中的伊斯兰复兴运动、“真主主权”、政教合一及部族政治对民主政治文化的影响；在威权政体下，经济的发展或不发展，都会陷入两难的境地，我们称为发展的悖论，经济畸形的发展伴随着严重的政治危机；与之相对的是权贵的奢靡和民生凋敝，朱门酒肉臭，路有冻死骨这种现象经过新媒体的报道发酵，酝酿出越来越浓厚的抗争情绪。第四章通过各方行动者在此次事件中的行动策略与博弈，分析了行动者及其行为对政治转型路径及其结果的决定性影响。政权当局的政治领袖、政党、军队和警察等行动者中，领袖及军队的行动选择是事件发展过程的关键，决定转型代价的大小，以及转型发生后民主能否建立并得到巩固；抗争群体在此次事件中起到了推波助澜的作用，可以说没有大众的抗争，就不可能有威权体制的垮台，然而政治转型中的抗争群体不是转型节点上的决定性因素；中东北非地区，反对派一直活跃在政治的舞台，2010年底以来的政治变局，给他们带来了问鼎政权的机会，然而反对派自身也问题重重，利比亚“全国过渡委员会”在西方的支持下才艰难地推翻了卡扎菲的独裁政权，埃及的穆兄会通过民选获取政权一年后又失去了政权，叙利亚的反对派鱼龙混杂等等。但无论如何，政治反对派作为此次事件的行动者是个赢家；外部势力作为重要的行动者，一直是政治转型的考量因素，其干预行动在有的国家起到了关键作用，如在利比亚，在有的国家则使得局势更加复杂，如在叙利亚。所以，行动者在政治转型进程中的不同策略选择和博弈，型构了各国独特的转型路径和方式。第五章通过对中东北非阿拉伯地区政治转型收益和代价的梳理，对该地区政治转型的绩效及前景进行了分析评价。政治转型的阵痛带来了无尽的伤害，无论经济上、社会上还是潜在心理上，同时也开启了无限种可能的未来空间。我们无法在短期内断言某一具体国家政治转型的成功或是失败，是走向阳光的民主大道还是在民主的边缘苦苦徘徊，但其间的经验和教训已经弥足珍贵。结论部分对整篇论文的基本观点进行了总结，同时对此次中东北非地区的政治转型对后发现代化国家政治发展的影响和启示进行了分析。对于同样正处在伟大现代化征程中，关键历史转折点上的中国来说，对中东北非阿拉伯地区政治转型得与失的思考，更是不可多得的宝贵财富。更多还原

【Abstract】 At the end of2010, there was a political upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa(MENA),which continues today and spreads to almost the entire Arab world. It was stemed from a incident ofa Tunisian young man’s self-immolation, which finally lit the fire of public anger that had beenrepressed for a long time in the MENA region under strongman politics. Like dominoes the stormquickly spread across the MENA region, and brought a profound historical changes. It blewwrinkled dictatorship that appeared stagnant in the Arab region, and brought some possibility to thedemocratic transiton in the MENA region, where many researchers were not optimistic. However,the social movement, which was called “Arab spring” by many western media, resulted in differentpolitical consequences in different countries with the same historical and cultural background inMENA region. Among these countries where a series of social protest movement occurred,fiveauthoritarian systems including Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Syria and Libya receiveded the greatestimpact. Meanwhile, Gulf monarchies such as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain restored the original rulingorder in different ways after experiencing short-term social oscillations. All five countries areIslamic authoritarian countries; except Syria’s Bashar-Assad, who was inherited his father’s powerin2000, the other4countries’ rules had lasted for more than20years; there were serious problemsexisted in economic development in spite of a certain growth. On the political transition, this papertries to analyze those authoritarian counties with the same cultural background where to obtain thesimilar conditions for transitions, actors’ different strategy choice and the process, performance andfuture of this political transition. In the political transition process, different strategies of the fivecountries’ actors, caused different concrete transformation way: rulers of Egypt and Tunisia quittedpolitics; Yemen’s ruler step down through negotiations; large-scale civil war broke out in Syria andLibya, and Syria’s civil war continued today.; different transition path resulted in totally different performance and future. This paper aimed to analyse what specific transition process guide differentcountries to different future and the meaning of actors’ strategy choice.This paper contains7parts altogetherThe introduction part mainly discusses the research background, theoretical basis, researchdesign and methods; clearing about the theoretical value and practical significance of this study;proposing the research idea and main problems needed to be solved.The first chapter summarizes the research of political transition and democratization in MiddleEast; pointing out that before2010”Middle east exceptionalism” had been the mainstream view ofwestern democracy studies.Although democratization of the Middle East and the Islamic world hasreceived some results, such as Turkey’s democratic achievements, the absence of Middle East in“The third wave” of democratization further strengthened the bias that the democracy is not suitablefor the MENA region.. Although there are some bias,the research of democratization in MENAregion still have gotten some progress and some relatively concentrated core themes. Theoreticaltopics, such as the hardships of political democratization in the region, the relation between theIslamic tradition and democratization, and the factors and conditions of the political democratization(including petroleum resources, economic development level, the public attitude, civil society, thetypes of government and geopolitical landscape, etc) has been widely discussed. The accumulationof related literature has also reached a high level. While in China related research is relatively weak,and high quality researches about political transition in MENA region are rare.The second chapter is the important part of the full text. The author tries to build the theoreticalframework for political transition:“Structure-Actors-Process-Performance”. Democratization cycletheory and democratization condition theory belong to the structure analysis of political transition,which mainly analyzed the influences of structural factors, including economic, cultural tradition andsystem.”Actors-Process-Performance” is the process analysis of political transition, which points outvarious actors and their strategy choices constructing the path, the way,the process, and ultimatelyaffecting the performance of different countries’ political transition. Structural conditions act keyrole in political transition, however the actors and their behavior are the decisive factors for politicaltransition process and results.The third chapter explains the structure of political transition in Middle East and North AfricaArabia country: strongman-authoritarian system which is prevalent in this area.This part analyses the types of authoritarian system, reasons and characteristics of authoritarian; How deeply affections todemocratic political culture which made by cultural tradition including Islamic revival movement,“God’s sovereignty”, Clerical and Tribal politics; under the authoritarian regime, whether economicdeveloped or not, the regime would face the dilemma, that we called the paradox of development,and abnormal economic development would cause political crisis; at the same time, dominancehierarchy was very luxury while people’s life was very difficult which was reported through Internetand Al jazeera etc caused more and more emotions of struggle.In fourth chapter, the author analyses the decisive influence of actors and their behavior and itsconsequences on the path of political transition, through actors’ action strategy. Among these actorsin regime authorities including political leaders, political parties, the army and the police, the actionselection of the leaders and the army is the key to the event, which decides the cost of the transitionand whether or not democracy system can be established and consolidated. Protest groups playedimportant part in those events, and we can say if there was no mass struggle, authoritarian regimewould not collapse.But protest groups are not the decisive factor in this process.In fact,in MENAregion, the oppositions have been active in the political stage, and political changes in the situationsince the end of2010, giving them a chance to claim the regime, however, the oppositions have a lotof problem in themselves: Libya “National Transitional Council” with the support of the west worldwas hard to overthrow Gaddafi’s dictatorship; Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt obtained powerthrough elected and soon lost power only a year later; there were chaos in the opposition in Syria, etc.Anyhow as a important actor for this event the political opposition were winners. as anotherimportant actors External forces couldn’t be ignored in political transition, and its interventionplayed a key role in some countries, such as Libya,however in others they made situations morecomplicated, such as Syria. So, different strategy choices of the actors in the transition processshaped the unique transition path and the way in different countries.The fifth chapter analyzes incomes and costs of the political transition, and the performance andprospect in this region. The pain from political transition brought endless damage, either economic,social, or potential psychological, and also opened the infinite possible in the future. In a shorttime,it is hard to assert that a particular state gets success or not from political transition,either toforward whether there is sunshine avenue or hard edge of democracy, but the experiences andlessons are very precious. The part of conclusion summarizes the basic idea of the whole paper, and analyzes influenceand revelation of this political transition in this region for developing countries. At the same timethinking about the political transition of gain and loss in the MENA region is a precious wealth forChina who is in the great historical turning point of the modernization.更多还原