【作者】 赵德昭；

【导师】 许和连；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 应用经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 对于不同时期的宏观经济学家来说,探索如何实现充分就业或降低失业率成为一个经久不衰的话题。考虑到二元经济结构的现实国情,农村剩余劳动力在城乡间或跨地区的转移就业构成现阶段中国就业增长的主要内容,如何加快推进农村剩余劳动力转移就业和保持就业局势稳定成为政府宏观调控的重要目标之一。改革开放30多年来,凭借劳动力成本优势和巨大的市场潜力,中国通过吸引外资迅速成为世界制造业的加工生产基地,外资的持续流入极大缓解了农村剩余劳动力转移就业的压力。但在国内产业结构升级浪潮的倒逼机制作用下,外资资本有机构成的变化使得其对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响不再是单一的积极效应,而是呈现出较为复杂的动态变化特征。与此同时,外资流入和农村剩余劳动力转移在地区间的不平衡性较为突出,这在很大程度上已影响到区域经济的健康协调发展和社会的公平安定,相对平衡的外资区位分布、稳定的就业水平和区域劳动力市场协调发展的实现已经迫在眉睫。本文利用中国1996～2011年的省际面板数据和2003-2010年282个地级以上城市的面板数据,就外商直接投资对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响效应从理论和实证角度进行深入研究。针对已有文献缺乏相关理论机制分析且并未将研究细化到农村剩余劳动力层面的问题,本文借鉴大推动理论构建了一个简单的理论模型,来详细阐释外商直接投资对中国农村剩余劳动力转移的理论传导机制。理论研究结果发现,外商直接投资对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响主要通过提供就业机会和支付更高的工资溢价两种渠道产生。就提供就业机会而言,二者在生产要素层面上表现为资本和劳动力要素互相匹配的过程,而在空间流动层面上表现为劳动力追逐资本流动和就业机会的过程。就支付更高的工资溢价而言,外资企业不仅可以支付农村剩余劳动力在城乡间的工资溢价,而且其比大多数内资企业具备更强的技术手段和更高的工资水平。同时,由于中国具有明显的大国转型经济体特征,巨大的消费市场可以吸引外资的持续大量流入和确保外资企业具有足够的溢价支付能力,这也具备了大推动模型得以实现的前提条件。虽然在外商直接投资流入的不同阶段,其对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响效应具有一定的差异,但其对农村剩余劳动力向城市非农产业转移就业的重要作用已经毋庸置疑。在理论研究的基础上,本文对外商直接投资影响农村剩余劳动力转移过程中的非线性门槛特征进行了实证研究。以实际外商直接投资存量为门槛变量的估计结果表明,外商直接投资对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响显著存在于FDI的双门槛效应。在外商直接投资流入的不同阶段,其对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响存在显著差异。随着门槛值的不断增加,外商直接投资对农村剩余劳动力转移的正向影响效应呈现逐渐递减的趋势。以城乡实际收入差距为门槛变量的估计结果表明,外商直接投资对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响显著存在于城乡收入差距的双门槛效应,其对农村剩余劳动力转移的正向影响效应随着城乡收入差距的变大而逐渐降低。不同分组变量下各省份空间分布的统计分析结果表明,外商直接投资与农村剩余劳动力转移在地域空间分布上基本保持一致,外商直接投资量和农村剩余劳动力转移量最小的5个省份均来自于西部地区,而最大的11个省份中有7个省份来自发达的东部沿海地区。而且,外商直接投资对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响存在明显的分阶段非线性关系和“门槛效应”特征。由于省域之间的空间联系对外资区位分布和农村剩余劳动力转移将产生重要影响,所以本文对外商直接投资对农村剩余劳动力转移空间集聚的影响效应进行了实证检验。实证结果分析发现,各省份农村剩余劳动力转移存在明显的空间依赖特征,周边省份对本省份存在正向的空间溢出效应,农村剩余劳动力转移的空间集聚具有明显的“马太效应”特征。东部和中西部地区农村剩余劳动力转移均存在明显的空间集聚和空间溢出效应,但中西部地区农村剩余劳动力转移的空间集聚效应要强于东部地区。同时,为了进一步详细刻画相邻省份重要解释变量的变动对本省份农村剩余劳动力转移的影响效应,本文建立空间计量模型实证分析了外商直接投资对农村剩余劳动力转移集聚的影响及其“第三方效应”。探索性空间数据分析结果发现,外商直接投资与农村剩余劳动力转移的空间形态呈现从沿海到内陆依次递减的阶梯状分布,在地理空间上则形成以东部沿海地区为集聚中心的“核心—外围”格局,空间近邻效应十分明显。空间计量检验结果表明,由于外资产业集聚和本地市场效应形成的累积循环机制,农村剩余劳动力转移高-高集聚和低-低集聚区域分布上具有高凝固性和高集聚性特征。同时,考虑到转型经济体中政府的地位凸显以及财政体制改革在现阶段农村剩余劳动力向城市迁移中的重要作用,本文在研究外商直接投资对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响效应时加入了财政分权变量。实证研究结果发现,外商直接投资对农村剩余劳动力转移具有持续显著的正向影响,财政分权对农村剩余劳动力的影响效应具有明显的“倒U型”曲线特征。中西部地区外商直接投资对农村剩余劳动力转移的促进作用要明显大于东部地区,但其财政收入和支出分权对农村剩余劳动力向城市转移的促进作用要明显小于东部地区。进一步的,本文通过设定特定临界值构建“多值”离散型的“适度财政分权指数”,并对财政分权不足、适度分权以及分权过度比例进行了统计。分权不足的比例仍占绝大多数表明省级以下的分税制改革很不彻底,其已成为困扰地市政府财政自给能力提高的主要障碍,财权和事权的严重不匹配造成了地市级政府缺乏为农村剩余劳动力在城市定居提供所需公共服务的能力,这将对农村剩余劳动力向城市的转移形成负向影响。最后,本文基于上述主要研究结论,提出了相应的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 For the different periods of macroeconomists, exploring how to achieve full employment or reduce unemployment rate has become a timeless topic. At the present stage, taking into account the actual situation in the dual-economy structure, the transfer of redundant rural labor force employment in the city-rural or across-region areas constitute the main content of the employment growth in China, how to accelerate the transfer of redundant rural labor employment and maintaining stable employment situation are becoming one of the important goals in government regulation. Over the past30years of reform and opening up, depending on the advantage of cheap labor force and the huge development potential of Chinese economic market, China has rapidly become the world’s production base in manufacturing industry through attracting foreign investment, and the continued inflow of foreign capital greatly ease the pressure on the transfer of redundant rural labor force. However, the domestic industrial structure upgrading wave under the "Forced" mechanism effect, together with the changes of organic composition of foreign capital, making the impact on the transfer of redundant rural labor force is no longer a single positive effect, but showing a more complex dynamic characteristics. At the same time, the regions’imbalance inflow of foreign capital and the transfer of redundant rural labor force are more prominent, which has largely affected not only the healthy and coordinated development of regional economic, but also the fair and stabile society. It is imminent to achieve relatively balanced geographical distribution of foreign investment, stabile employment levels and the coordinated development of regional labor markets. This paper uses the1996to2011China’s provincial panel data, and the2003to2010panel data with more than282prefecture-level cities, deeply research the effect of FDI on the transfer of redundant rural labor from the theoretical and empirical perspective.For existing literature lacking of theoretical mechanism analysis and studying down to the level of redundant rural labor force problem, this paper construct a simple theoretical model drawing lessons from the big push theory, to elaborate the theoretical transmission mechanism about the impact of FDI on the transfer of redundant rural labor force in China. Theoretical study found that, the impact of FDI on the transfer of redundant rural labor force mainly through two channels of providing employment opportunities and paying higher wage premium. In terms of the provision of employment opportunities, the two channels behaving as the process of capital and labor elements matching each other from the level of production factors. On the mobile space dimension, the two channels behaving as the movement of labor force chasing capital and achievement employment opportunities. From the level of paying higher wage premium, foreign companies can not only pay the wage premium of redundant rural labor force, but also have stronger technical level and higher wages than most domestic enterprises. Meanwhile, China has obvious power characteristics of transition economies, and huge consumer market can attract large inflows of foreign capital continuously, which can make sure the foreign-funded enterprises have the ability to pay wage premium and provide a prerequisite to realize the big push model. Although at different stages of the inflow of foreign direct investment, it has some different effect on the transfer of redundant rural labor force, but it is no doubt that the flow of foreign direct investment plays an important role on transference employment of redundant rural labor force from rural to urban non-agricultural.On the basis of theoretical research, the paper makes empirical research about FDI on the impact of redundant rural labor force transference considering nonlinear threshold characteristics. Using actual foreign direct investment stock as the threshold variable, the estimation results show that, the impact of FDI on the transfer of redundant rural labor force is significantly present in the double threshold effect of FDI. At different stages of the inflow of foreign direct investment, there are significant differences in the impact on the transference of redundant rural labor force. As the increasing of thresholds, the positive impact of FDI on the effect of the redundant rural labor force transference shows a gradual decreasing trend. Using the real income gap between urban and rural areas as the threshold variable, the estimation results indicate that, the impact of FDI on the transfer of redundant rural labor force exists in a significant income gap between urban and rural dual threshold effect. As the expansion of income gap between urban and rural areas, the positive effect on the redundant rural labor force transference gradually becomes decreased. The statistical analysis results of the provinces’spatial distribution of the different grouping variable shows that, the foreign direct investment and the transfer of redundant rural labor force remain the same geographical spatial distribution, the smallest five provinces of foreign direct investment and redundant rural labor force from the western region, and the biggest seven provinces in11provinces from developed eastern coastal areas. Moreover, the impact of FDI on the transfer of redundant rural labor force exits in obvious nonlinear relationship and the "threshold effect" feature.Because of the connection between different provinces having an important impact on the foreign distribution and the transfer of redundant rural labor force, this paper makes the space gathering empirical test about the impact of FDI on the transference of redundant rural labor force. Empirical results found that, the transfer of redundant rural labor force in different provinces exits in obvious spatial dependence characteristics, there is a positive spatial spillover effect between surrounding provinces, while spatial agglomeration in the transfer of redundant rural labor force has obvious "Matthew Effect" feature. The transfer of redundant rural labor force in eastern and Midwest regions present obvious spatial concentration and spatial spillover effects, but the spatial concentration effect of redundant rural labor force transference in Midwest is stronger than the eastern region. Meanwhile, in order to particularly characterize the changes of important explanatory variables in the neighboring province that affecting the province’s redundant rural labor force transfer, this paper establishes spatial econometric model to make empirical analysis on the spatial agglomeration effect and "Third-Province" effect of FDI on the transference of redundant rural labor force. Exploratory spatial data analysis results find that, the spatial form of foreign direct investment and the transfer of redundant rural labor force step in descending order distribution from the east coast to the inland areas, which forms a gathering center for the eastern coastal areas of the "core-periphery" pattern, space neighbor effect is very obvious. Spatial econometric test results show that, as cumulative cycle mechanism on industrial agglomeration of FDI and local market effects, the transference of redundant rural labor force has high concentration and coagulation features in high-high and low-low concentration region.At the same time, considering the position of the government in the transition economies is highlighting, and fiscal system reform plays an important role of the transference of redundant rural labor force at this stage, this paper join in the fiscal decentralization variables in researching the impact of FDI on the transference of redundant rural labor force. Empirical study find that, foreign direct investment has continued significant positive impact on the transference of redundant rural labor force, fiscal decentralization has obvious "inverted U-shaped" curve characteristics on the effect of redundant rural labor force. The impact of foreign direct investment on the transfer of redundant rural labor force in central and western regions of is significantly larger than the eastern region, but the promoting role of financial income and expenditure decentralization on the transference of redundant rural labor force is significantly less than the eastern region. Further, this paper constructs a "multi-valued" discrete "appropriate fiscal decentralization index" by setting a specific threshold, and statistics the following three fiscal decentralization aspects, such as lack of decentralization, appropriate decentralization and over decentralization. Lacking of decentralization still occupying vast majority indicate that, the reform tax system is still incomplete, which has become the main obstacle for government to increase financial self-sufficiency ability. Moreover, Chinese municipal governments lack the capacity to provide the necessary public services for redundant rural labor force because the mismatch between intergovernmental financial authorities, which will form the negative impact for the transference of redundant rural labor force. Finally, this paper put forward the corresponding policy recommendations based on the main conclusions on the above.更多还原