【作者】 陈洁；

【导师】 王耀中；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 应用经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放30多年来,中国经济逐步进入全方位开放的格局之中,既存在着重大发展机遇也面临着严峻的产业安全风险。商贸服务业作为第三产业的重要组成部分,是衡量综合国力和居民生活水平的晴雨表,是市场经济成熟程度的反映。伴随着对外开放不断扩大及外商直接投资的不断增加,经济全球化对中国商贸服务业的外部冲击及影响越来越大。为在激烈的国际竞争中趋利避害,中国商贸服务业应加快产业发展力、提高国际竞争力、增强内资控制力及优化对外依存度,维护商贸服务业的产业安全。本文结合产业经济学、发展经济学、国际经济学、国际贸易学、制度经济学相关理论,在重点研究流通产业和产业安全基本理论的基础上,针对商贸服务业发展特征,分别从理论和实证上分析了中国商贸服务业产业安全。具体体现在以下几方面：首先,系统梳理了国内外关于流通产业、产业安全及商贸服务业产业安全的理论及其文献,并从中国商贸服务业的政策、业态、外资和国际化阐述了经济全球化与中国商贸服务业的发展过程。其次,对经济全球化背景下中国商贸服务业产业安全的现状进行分析,发现目前中国商贸服务业表现出区域发展不均衡、业态发展面临困境、外资控制逐渐加强及国际竞争力水平较低等特点。再次,从内部和外部角度分析了经济全球化背景下中国商贸服务业产业安全的影响机理,提出了中国商贸服务业在市场日益开放的环境中,产业安全发展面临的复杂形势。其中内部影响机理主要包括产业发展力和竞争环境,外部影响机理包括外商直接投资、外国产品及技术、国际环境。然后,依据经济全球化背景下中国商贸服务业产业安全的内外部影响机理,分别基于产业发展力、产业竞争力、产业控制力和产业对外需求弹性进行实证分析。基于产业发展力的研究结果表明,中国商贸服务业的劳动生产率增长水平高于工业,显然,这不符合鲍莫尔-富克斯假说的前提条件,即检验证实了中国商贸服务业不存在鲍莫尔成本病。基于产业竞争力的研究显示,中国商贸服务业竞争力还处在一个较低的水平,越是沿海发达省市,其较高的市场开放度导致商贸服务业受外资冲击越强,商贸服务业竞争力较低。基于产业控制力的研究结论指出,目前外商直接投资在一定程度上会对中国商贸服务业产业安全构成威胁,但不同区域、不同视角的影响效果不同,这与各地区所处的地理位置、经济发展水平、对外开放度等因素有关。基于产业对外需求弹性的研究发现,总体来说,中国商贸服务业的市场需求缺乏弹性,产业发展不安全,但不同地区、不同类型的对外需求弹性存在差异。紧接着,为进一步测度中国商贸服务业产业安全度,分别从产业发展力、产业竞争力、产业控制力和产业对外依存度构建指标体系并客观计算中国商贸服务业产业安全状态。测算结果表明中国商贸服务业处于“基本安全”的下档。并利用BP神经网络和遗传算法,对该模型的有效性进行检验,结果显示所选择的安全指标、安全区间、指标权重相对合理,预警模型较准确。最后,采取国际比较的形式,分别对发达国家、发展中国家和新兴工业化国家及地区商贸服务业产业安全的维护背景、维护主体和维护手段进行分析,揭示商贸服务业产业安全模式随国际经济形势的不断变化而呈现出的多样化发展趋势,提出维护中国商贸服务业产业安全的政策建议,具体包括增进中国商贸服务业的产业发展力、提升中国商贸服务业的产业竞争力、加强中国商贸服务业的内资控制力、优化中国商贸服务业的对外依存度和协调中国商贸服务业的区域发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Over more than three decades of the reform and opening, a situation of overall opening-up has gradually formed in China, which presents both great development opportunities and severe industrial security risks. As an important part of the third industry, business service industry is the barometer of the comprehensive national strength and people’s living standard and the mirror of the mature degree of the market economy. With wider openness to the outside world and constant increase of foreign direct investment, China’s business services is experiencing greater external impact and influence from economic globalization. In order to draw on advantages and avoid disadvantages in the fierce international competition, China’s business services should speed up the industrial development, improve the international competitive power, strengthen the domestic control power and optimize the external dependence, so as to maintain industrial security in business service sector.This paper, based on the key study of circulation industry and industrial safety theory, combines the related theories of industry economics, development economics, international economics, international trade and institutional economics to analyze both the theoretical and empirical aspects of China’s business services industry security according to its characteristics, which embodies in following aspects:First, this paper systematically summarizes the theories and literatures about circulation industry, industry security and business services industry security. It also expounds the development course of economic globalization and China’s business service sector in terms of its policies, forms, foreign capital and globalization.Second, by analyzing the present situation of China’s business services industry security under the background of economic globalization, this paper finds that current business service industry in China has demonstrated several features, such as uneven regional development, predicament of format development, reinforcement of foreign investment control, lower level of international competiveness and etc.Third, this paper, under the background of economic globalization, explores the influencing mechanism on industrial security of China’s business service sector from both internal and external aspects. It points out that the industrial security development of China’s business service industry is suffering from a rather complex situation in the ever-increasingly open market. The internal influencing mechanism mainly includes the industrial development power and competitive environment. The external influencing mechanism includes foreign direct investment, foreign products and technology and global environment.Fourth, according to both the internal and external influencing mechanism on the industrial security of China’s business service sector under the economic globalization background, the paper presents empirical analysis based on industrial development power, industrial competitiveness, industrial control power, and industrial foreign demand elasticity. The study based on industrial development power indicates that the increase of labor productivity is higher in China’s business service sector than industrial sector, which is obviously inconsistent with the prerequisite of Baumol-Fawkes hypothesis. In other words, the test confirms that no Baumol cost disease exists in China’s business service sector. The study based on industrial competitive industry shows that the competitiveness of China’s business service industry remains at a lower lever. Since the wider openness of market often leads to greater impact from foreign investment in business service industry, the developed coastal cities are facing lower level of competiveness in business service industry. The study based on industrial control power concludes that current FDI, to a certain extent, can be a threat to the industrial security of China’s business service sector. However, the effects vary from different regions and different perspectives, which are related to factors like geographic location, level of economic development, level of openness of each region. The study based on industrial foreign demand elasticity of China’s business services industry security indicates that, generally speaking, the market demand of China’s business services is lack of flexibility and the industrial development is not safe, while foreign demand elasticity varies from different areas and different types.Fifth, to further measure China’s business services industry security, the paper constructs an index system and estimates China’s business services industry security situation from the industrial development power, industrial competitiveness, industrial control power and the level of industrial dependence on foreign countries. The results show that China’s business services industry security is at the low level of "basic safety". It also applies the BP neural network and genetic algorithm to test the validity of the model. The results reveal that the chosen safety indicators, safe interval, index weights are relatively reasonable, which indicates that the warning model is accurate.Finally, the paper takes the form of international comparison to analyze the protection background, protection subject and protection means of the business services industry security among developed countries, developing countries, newly industrialized countries and regions respectively. It reveals that the development trend of industrial security modes in business services diversify along with ever-changing global economic situation. Then it puts forward the policy suggestions on maintaining China’s business services industry security, which include the promoting the industrial development power, enhancing the international competitiveness, strengthening the control power of domestic investment, optimizing the external dependence and coordinating the regional development of China’s business service industry.更多还原