【作者】 姚晓磊；

【导师】 李晓；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 世界经济， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 20世纪90年代以来的全球经济失衡对世界经济运行产生了深远的影响，随着美国经常账户失衡现象的日益加剧，这一问题也越来越引起学者们的关注。作为全球经济引擎的美国与全球制造业中心中国之间的经济失衡显然是此次失衡的重中之重，两国之间的失衡也成为学界研究的重点。虽然自2007年次贷危机之后,美国的经常帐户逆差和中国的经常帐户顺差规模有所收窄,经济失衡状况得到一定程度改善，但是经济失衡的整体格局并没有发生根本性的变化，中美经济失衡依然是全球经济失衡的焦点。关于全球经济失衡产生的原因，学者们从储蓄——投资失衡、国际分工、国际货币体系、金融发展差异等角度进行了不同探讨。本文从失衡各方金融发展差异角度分析入手，首先从宏观上探讨了金融发展影响储蓄投资失衡，进而导致全球经济失衡的机制；接着从新型国际分工入手，探讨了基于金融发展差异的新型国际分工导致贸易失衡的微观机制，最后对全球经济失衡条件下中国经济发展战略调整进行了分析。第一章，导论。首先对目前全球经济失衡的总体状况进行了分析，引出本次失衡与前几次失衡之间存在的差异：即作为失衡双方的中国和美国在金融发展方面存在着巨大差异，而这种差异也吸引着学者从金融发展角度探寻本次失衡产生的原因。接着，本文对金融发展、金融发展差异和全球经济失衡的概念进行了定义；紧接着通过文献综述方式对目前学术界对全球经济失衡原因的研究成果进行了简要回顾，确定了本文的研究框架，并对本文主要的研究方法、创新之处和不足进行了介绍。第二章，金融发展差异与全球经济失衡的现状分析。本章首先对全球经济失衡的现状与特征进行了分析，从目前全球经济失衡的现状来看，全球经常账户逆差主要集中于美国、欧盟，而中国等东亚新兴市场国家、日本、石油输出国组织则是主要顺差来源地，尤其是中美失衡成为此次经济失衡的典型代表。我们注意到，失衡双方之间在存在巨额贸易失衡的同时还存在着巨额的国际资本流动现象，以中国为代表的新兴市场国家在保持贸易顺差的同时还源源不断向美国输出资本，那么是什么原因导致了这种现象呢？中美之间在金融发展方面的巨大差异引起了我们的关注。接下来本文对全球金融发展的现状进行了简要分析，在金融全球化和金融一体化突飞猛进的同时，发达经济体与新兴市场之间在金融发展方面的差异同样不容忽视。我们对本次失衡的典型代表——中美之间在金融资产总量、金融结构、金融效率、金融开放度等几个方面的数据进行了详尽的分析，通过分析得出，中国在几个方面都与美国存在着巨大的差异，而这种差异也构成了中美之间经济失衡的现实基础。第三章，金融发展差异与储蓄投资失衡。本章首先从国民收入恒等式分析入手，通过分析得出储蓄投资失衡与贸易失衡之间的关系：如果一国私人部门储蓄过低，形成储蓄投资缺口，将会导致净进口增加，净出口减少，从而形成贸易逆差；反之则形成贸易顺差。接着本章从金融发展角度对中美储蓄投资失衡进行了分析，通过分析得出，金融市场不完善、金融工具品种单一、金融效率低下等因素是导致中国高储蓄率和储蓄投资转化不畅的重要原因，而发达的金融市场也是造成美国长期保持低储蓄率的重要因素。在金融全球化背景下，当一国较低的金融发展水平无法消化国内的剩余储蓄时，资金会流向金融发达市场国家并转化为投资，形成一国对外资产，这种跨国的储蓄投资转化机制是导致全球经济失衡的重要因素之一。最后，本章以中美为例，对储蓄投资失衡导致对外经济失衡的具体机制进行了分析，并探讨了储蓄投资失衡对中美经济运行的影响。第四章，金融发展、新型国际分工与全球经济失衡。本章首先对国际分工的演化过程进行了分析，指出从工业革命以来，国际分工历经了工业与农业之间的产业间分工、工业国家之间的产业内分工、基于价值链的产品内分工以及金融服务业与制造业之间的新型国际分工，之后对新型国际分工的特征进行了概括；接着分析了目前国际资本流动的基本特征，指出新兴市场国家一方面通过对外贸易顺差积累了大量的外汇储备，通过证券组合投资的形式将这些资金投入到美国，通过购买低风险、低收益率的美国国债等债券，弥补了美国国内的储蓄不足；另一方面，美国又通过跨国企业的对外直接投资将这部分资金投向新兴市场国家，实现了资金的回流，在这一资本流动过程中，美国虽然不断累积对外债务，但是通过对外投资获得的高收益弥补了对外负债的低利息支出，而且通过大量吸收证券投资强化了其金融产品上的比较优势，而亚洲新兴市场国家通过大量接受外国直接投资，强化了制造业的比较优势，从而形成两类国家间金融服务业与制造业的新型国际分工模式；其后本章对金融发展影响国际分工的微观机制进行了简要分析，指出金融发展通过促进物质资本投资和人力资本发展进而影响国际生产分工格局。最后，本章通过建立模型，利用31个国家的面板数据，对金融发展、国际分工与经济失衡之间的关系进行了实证检验，结果表明金融发展与国际分工和经济失衡之间是显著相关的。第五章，全球经济失衡条件下的中国经济发展战略调整。虽然目前的全球经济失衡在可预见的一段时间里仍将持续，但是美国次贷危机的爆发也提醒着我们，美国这种靠长期对外负债弥补国内储蓄不足，维持经济增长的模式存在很大的弊端，一旦一个环节出现问题都将导致巨大的灾难，所以在更为严重的后果出现之前进行主动的调整或许是全球经济一个现实的选择，而中国作为主要失衡方，无论从自身经济安全还是全球经济稳定的角度，都负有主动调整的责任。接着本章从金融发展角度对中国的政策选择进行了探讨。一是改变出口导向型经济战略，拉动国内需求增长；二是优化国内产业结构，促进对外贸易结构升级；三是调整对华直接投资引进政策；四是积极实施对外直接投资，加快劳动密集型产业对外转移；五是采取各种措施，提高国内金融效率。更多还原

【Abstract】 Ever since the1990s, global imbalances have exerted profound impact onglobal economy, not only reinforcing new industrial division of labor across the worldand influencing the trend of international capital, but also immeasurably impactingthe development of both the real economy and virtual economy. The economicimbalance between the United States as the engine of global economy and China asthe manufacturing base is no doubt the most important, which has become the focusof academic study. Though the current account deficit of the U.S. and current accountsurplus of China has narrowed after the sub-prime mortgage crisis in2007, andeconomic imbalance has improved to some extent, there has been no fundamentalchange to the overall pattern of economic imbalances. The economic imbalancebetween China and the U.S. is still the focus of global economic imbalances. As forthe cause of global economic imbalances, scholars have conducted differentresearches from perspectives like investment imbalance, international division oflabor, international monetary system, differences in financial development, etc. Byanalyzing the differences in financial development of each country, this paper firstproposes the mechanism that financial development causes imbalance betweensavings and investment, which further leads to global economic imbalances. Thenfrom the aspect of the new international division of labor, this paper discusses that thenew international division of labor on the basis of financial development differencesbrings about trade imbalances, which serves as the microscopic mechanism of globaleconomic imbalances. In the ultimate, this paper analyzes the policy options of Chinaagainst the background of global economic imbalances.The first chapter is introduction. This paper first analyzes the overall status ofcurrent global economic imbalances, and contrasts its differences with previousimbalances. It points out the huge difference between China and the United States in financial development, which prompts researchers to search for the cause of thisimbalance from the angle of financial development. Then we define the concepts offinancial development, the differences of financial development and global economicimbalances. On the basis of literature review, the research framework of this paper isproposed, and research method, points of innovation, deficiencies are illustrated.Chapter Two is analysis on financial development differences and globaleconomic imbalances. This chapter first analyzes the current status and features ofglobal economic imbalances. Global current account deficit mainly occurs in the U.S.and the E.U., while emerging economies in East Asia such as China, Japan, andOPEC are major sources of current account surplus. In particular, China and the U.S.are typical cases of the current economic imbalance. It is noted that besides colossaltrade imbalance, there is huge international capital flow between deficit economiesand surplus economies. Emerging market economies with China as representative,export a steady stream of capital to the U.S, at the meantime of maintaining tradesurplus. What has caused this phenomenon? This paper focuses on the hugedifferences between China and the U.S. in financial development. It makes a briefanalysis of the current status of global financial development. While financialglobalization and financial integration has attained great progress, differences infinancial development between advanced economies and emerging economies cannotbe ignored. This paper conducts detailed quantitative analysis on total financial assets,financial structure, financial efficiency and financial openness of both China and theU.S. The analysis leads to the conclusion that huge differences in the above aspectsexist between China and the U.S., which lays the foundation for economic imbalancesbetween the two countries.Chapter Three discusses financial development differences and savingsinvestment imbalance. By analyzing the national income identity, this paper illustratesthe relationship between savings-investment imbalance and trade imbalance. If acountry’s private sector savings is too low, savings-investment gap is formed whichleads to the increase of net import and thus trade imbalance. Otherwise, trade surplusis resulted. On this basis, this paper analyzes the savings-investment imbalancebetween China and the U.S. from the perspective of financial development. The result shows that factors like financial market imperfection, lack of variety of financialinstruments, financial inefficiency account for China’s high savings rate and impedethe transformation from savings to investment. On the other hand, advanced financialmarket is the major cause for U.S. long-term low savings rate. Under the backgroundof financial globalization, when a country’s underdeveloped financial market cannotfully utilize excess savings, its capital will flow to countries with developed financialmarket in the form of foreign asset. This transnational savings-investmenttransformation mechanism is one of the major factors of global economic imbalances.Taking the case of China and the U.S. as example, this paper analyzes the mechanismthrough which savings-investment imbalance results in external economic imbalances.It then constructs the macro analysis framework that differences in financialdevelopment causes savings-investment imbalance and further leads to externaleconomic imbalance.Chapter Four is financial development, new international division of labor andglobal economic imbalances. This chapter first analyzes basic features of currentinternational flow of capital. On the one hand, emerging market economies haveaccumulated huge amount of foreign exchange reserves through foreign trade surplus,and invest this kind of capital to the U.S. in the form of portfolio investment, such asthe purchase of low risk and low return bonds like U.S. Treasury, which makes up forthe savings inadequacy of the U.S. On the other hand, the U.S reinvests some of thiscapital back to emerging market economies in the form of foreign direct investmentby transnational corporations. In this process of capital flow, the U.S. foreign debt isaccumulated, while high return from foreign investment offsets low interest expenseto some extent. The U.S. reinforces its comparable advantage in financial products byabsorbing substantial amount of securities, and at the meantime emerging marketeconomies reinforces their comparable advantage in manufacturing by acceptingforeign direct investment. As the result, new international division of labor betweencountries specializing in finance and those in trade are formed. This paper thenanalyzes the microscopic mechanism through which financial development exertsimpact on international division of labor. It points out that by promoting investmentin physical capital and development of human capital, financial development influences international division of labor. At the end of this chapter, this paperconducts empirical studies on the relationship among financial development,international division of labor, and economic imbalances by setting up a model andutilizing panel data of dozens of countries. The result shows that there is significantcorrelation between financial development and international division of labor andeconomic imbalances.Chapter Five proposes China’s strategies under the background of globaleconomic imbalances. This chapter first summarizes the research framework of thispaper. It presents that though the current global economic imbalance embodied in akind of “dynamic equilibrium” is still controllable, the outbreak of the U.S. sub-primemortgage crisis reminds us that there are huge problems in the present U.S. pattern.For a long term of time, the U.S. has relied on foreign debt to compensate forinadequacy of domestic savings. Any problems in any stage will cause immensecatastrophe. As a result, it is important to adjust global economy before more seriousconsequences are caused. China, as a major imbalanced party, should actively adjustthe current status for the sake of either its own economic safety or global economicstability. This paper studies China’s strategies from the perspective of financialdevelopment. To start, China should change its export-oriented economic strategy andstimulates domestic demand. Secondly, China should optimize its industrial structureand propels upgrading of foreign trade structure. Thirdly, it should adjust policies onintroduction of foreign direct investment in China. Fourthly, it should initiate directinvestment in foreign countries and accelerate the transfer of labor-intensiveindustries to other countries. The fifth is to adopt various strategies in promotingdomestic foreign efficiency.更多还原