【作者】 李元；

【导师】 景跃军；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放30年来，我国经济增长创造了许多令世界瞩目的奇迹。与此同时，我国第三产业的发展也取得了很大的成就。但是，现阶段我国第三产业发展出现了满足低端要求的服务行业供给过剩，满足高端要求的服务行业供给不足的问题，如何促进我国第三产业健康发展对我国经济高速持续增长意义重大。本文主要用定量分析的方法研究了以下几个问题。其一，中国的第三产业在伴随经济增长的演变过程中，第三产业发展的基本状况如何？其二，在中国第三产业演进的过程中，第三产业的内部结构发生了哪些变化？与此相关，我国政府有哪些政策促进了这些变化的产生？这种结构的变化又对经济发展产生哪些作用？其三，我国现阶段第三产业发展及其内部结构是怎样的？又有哪些因素可以促使其增长并导致其结构合理化？其增长的潜力又是怎样的？针对上述问题，笔者查阅了大量的关于我国第三产业统计数据，通过实证方法对我国第三产业的发展现状作了分析。本文利用SPSS19.0软件，分别使用主成分分析和聚类分析等多种方法，对我国第三产业的发展潜力和影响因素作了定量的分析。全文共分7章，各章的内容具体如下：第1章，简述了本研究的选题背景及研究的学术价值，对本文研究对象“第三产业”及“第三产业内部结构”等概念及范围进行界定。本章还对国内外关于第三产业及内部结构研究的成果作以综述。此外，本章还对论文的逻辑构架、研究方法给出展示。第2章，主要介绍了本研究所需的基础理论。主要介绍了库兹涅茨的产业结构演变规律，钱纳里的标准产业模型理论，罗斯托的“起飞模型”和格鲁伯和沃克第三产业内部结构理论及福克斯的服务经济理论等理论给出评述。第3章，对改革开放以来我国第三产业结构与就业结构的演变过程进行的实证分析。本章运用规范的经济学测度指标，考量了我国第三产业的就业结构和产业结构的变动趋势。研究结果显示，我国的第三产业的演进过程还是符合产业结构演变的一般规律的。第一二产业劳动力不断转向第三产业，第三产业的增加值比重不断上升，但存在第三产业产值增长速度慢，农业剩余劳动力向第三产业转移困难的问题。第4章，运用“相关回归”“就业弹性”和“结构偏离度”来研究我国第三产业结构与就业结构的协调程度。研究结果表明，我国第三产业的就业结构与产业结构呈现很强的相关性，我国的第三产业在三次产业中保持了较高的就业弹性，成为吸收就业的主要经济部门。但我国的就业结构对产业结构有所偏离。我国的就业结构的调整与产业结构调整相比，存在3-5年的滞后期。第5章，采用基础统计数据和经济研究方法相结合的方式，呈现出我国第三产业内部结构的动态特征，我国第三产业内部流通部门的增加值比重不断下降，公共服务部门的增加值比重增长相对缓慢，生产性服务业和生活性服务业增加值比重不断上升。我国第三产业内部行业就业比重下降最快的是流通行业和公共服务部门。在我国传统服务部门和现代服务部门其增加值占第三产业产值比重虽不分伯仲，但现代服务业显示出强劲的增长势头。第6章，选择主成分分析、聚类分析对影响我国第三产业的因素进行实证分析，并建立预测模型。数据分析结果显示，我国第三产业法人总数，第三产业就业人数，第三产业增加值能准确反映第三产业成长情况，地区的人均GDP，旅客周转量是第三产业成长能力的主要指标，人口密度，城市化程度是第三产业发展基础条件。根据聚类分析结果，北京、上海、广州第三产业现代化程度高一些，贵州、西藏、甘肃这些省份第三产业发展程度较低。第7章，基于以上各章研究结果，笔者提出如下建议：产业结构调整要坚持制造业和服务业并重；产业结构优化要促进三次产业各自的立体化；协调产业结构与就业结构的关系。培育第三产业发展主体，引导现代服务业做大做强；提升市场化程度，促进第三产业优化升级；大力发展生产性服务业，作为第三产业升级的突破口；优化第三产业内部结构，调整服务业优化政策；加快城市化建设步伐，为第三产业发展提供环境保障。对第三产业进行研究是一项重大而复杂的系统工程，本研究尝试对我国第三产业及内部结构动态变化进行专门研究，并预测我国第三产业发展潜力。以上的一系列研究成果可以为我国中央及地方政府制订我国（地区）第三产业发展规划以及制订相关政策提供数据支撑和借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the past30years’development with the policy of reforming and opening, Chinahas created many miracle figures in economical development, which has attractedworldwide attention, so that the development of the tertiary industry has certaincomparative advantages. But we must also see that China’s tertiary industry servicesector surplus of supply to meet the requirements of low-end and high-end serviceindustries insufficient supply and other issues. Therefore, how to promote the healthydevelopment of the tertiary industry is of great significance to China’s rapid economicdevelopment.The study attempts to explore the following questions. First, with the evolution ofeconomic growth, how are the basic conditions of China’s tertiary industry? Second,what changes does China’s tertiary industry have in its internal structure with theprocess of evolution? As to this, what policies has the state carried out to prompt thechanges? And what reaction does the structural change have to the economicdevelopment? Third, what factors can promote its growth, considering the currentsituation of the development of tertiary industry and its internal structure. And how isits potential growth? And the fourth is there any regional difference between thedevelopments of China’s tertiary industry? And how is it clustered in terms of theregional development? These issues are the motion of this study and the focus of theacademic field as well. For the purpose of these studies, this paper collects and checks alarge amount of the tertiary industry statistics, and analyzes the situation of the currentdevelopment of the tertiary industry through empirical approach. And with a variety ofmethods such as factor analysis and cluster, this paper analyses the problems of China’s tertiary industry and its influencing factors on development in details.Chapter1"Introduction" mainly introduces the academic value of this researchbackground and research on the subject of this paper,"tertiary industry" and "theinternal structure of the tertiary industry" concept and to define the scope. This chapteralso reviews the main research results of the third internal structure at home and abroadso as to master the latest research developments. In addition, this paper briefly explainsthe logical structure of the essay and the research methods.Chapter2Theoretical Review on the industrial structure and the tertiary industry,introduces the basic theory needed for this study, including the industrial structureevolution of Kuznets, Cheney’s standard industry model theory, And post-industrialsociety theory of Daniel Bell, Gruber and internal structure theory and Fox Walkertertiary industry service economic theory. And the theory is used to analyze the role ofthe tertiary industry in the economic system.Chapter3focuses on the empirical analysis of China’s tertiary industry structureand employment structure evolution since reform and opening. This study uses sucheconomic indicators as "economic growth","second industrial composition ratio" and"labor constitute" to evaluate the changes in the structure of China’s tertiary industryand employment.The result indicates that the evolution of China’s tertiary industry isstill in line with the general laws of the evolution of industrial structure. The labor ofthe first and the second industries is constantly turning to the tertiary industry, and thetertiary industry increased ratio is rising. However, there exist some problems such asthe third industrial output growth is slow, and the transfer of surplus agricultural laborforce is difficult.Chapter4uses classical economic indicators "employment elasticity""structuraldeviation change" to study the degree of coordination of the tertiary industry structure and employment structure. The results show that China’s employment structure andindustrial structure have a strong correlation, and the tertiary industry which maintainshigh employment elasticity in the three industries has become a major economic sectorto absorb employment. However, China’s industrial structure and employment structurehas been in a deviating state for a long time. Compared with the adjustment of industrialstructure, the adjustment of employment structure is behind, about3-5years’ lag.Chapter5combined the methods of the basic statistics with economic researchmethods. The research result shows the dynamic characteristics of the internal structurein the tertiary industry, increase the proportion of the value of China’s tertiary industrydepartment of internal circulation declining proportion of the added value of the publicservice sector growth is relatively slow, productive service life of service and increasethe proportion rising. China’s tertiary industry employment within the industry, thefastest decline in the proportion of thing distribution industry and public service sector,the service sector in China’s traditional and modern services sector which accounted foran increase of the value of the tertiary industry, though not of par value. But it shows arapidly increase in modern service industry.Chapter6uses molecular analysis, cluster analysis of the factors affecting China’stertiary industry to give an empirical analysis, and make predictive modeling, givingChina’s tertiary industry development direction from the macro. Structure shows thetotal number of tertiary industry, the number of employee in the tertiary industry canaccurately reflect the region’s per capita GDP. Passenger turnover is the main indicatorof the tertiary industry growth capacity. Population density and degree of urbanizationare the basic conditions for the third industrial development. Composite score based onfactors clustering display the sort of the cities, modernization of the tertiary industry inBeijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai are higher, but it is much lower in Guizhou, Xizang and Gansu.Chapter7puts forward some suggestions on China’s industrial structureadjustment and reasonably healthy development of the tertiary industry, based on theabove findings of each chapter. The study recommends as follows: industrialrestructuring should adhere to both the manufacturing and services; industrial structureoptimization can help to promote their three-dimensional of three industries; makecoordination to the relations of industrial structure and employment structure. Fosterthe development the body of tertiary industry, getting to know the modern serviceindustry becomes bigger and stronger; enhance the degree of market, promote theoptimization and upgrading of tertiary industry; vigorously develop the productiveservice industry, make it to be as the third industrial upgrading breakthrough;optimizing the internal structure of the tertiary industry, adjustment optimized policiesservices production; accelerate the pace of urbanization construction, provide a goodenvironmental protection for the development of tertiary industry.Study of the tertiary industry is a significant and complex systematic engineering.This study attempts to specialize the tertiary industry and the dynamic changes of it’sthe internal structure, focus on the developing trends of the internal dynamic change ofChina’s tertiary industry. The results of this study are bound to provide the central andlocal governments with data support for them to formulate the government or regionaldevelopment plans of the tertiary industry and other related policies.更多还原