【作者】 赵雪；

【导师】 李晓；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 世界经济， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 本文的写作遵循着从东亚经济体间汇率波动现状出发，最后回归到东亚经济体汇率制度选择的逻辑思维脉络，并始终以协调与合作的思想作为支撑。首先，东亚经济体普遍盯住美元作为一种现实状况被加以证实了。那么，在盯住美元的大前提之下，基于一种“传递”的思想，东亚经济体间汇率应表现出一定的相关性，那么现实状况如何？这种相关性的短期变化和长期趋势如何？东亚经济体间汇率的相关性是否可以持续？假设在存在汇率联动的情况下，东亚经济体间是否构成了潜在的最优货币区？如果说存在着潜在的最优货币区，那么东亚经济体又应该如何进行汇率制度选择？本文将通过实证检验及理论分析对上述问题进行回答。实际上，对上述问题的思考源于欧元区建立的实践经验。作者认为，欧洲国家存在着一种汇率协调的“思维”。从欧洲国家主张重新建立金本位到二战后英国提出“凯恩斯计划”，从布雷顿森林体系框架下各国自发性的汇率协调到布雷顿森林体系崩溃后欧洲国家建立的“蛇形浮动”（Snake in the Tunnel），从欧洲货币体系到欧元区的建立，汇率协调的“思维”始终贯穿其中，并由汇率协调过渡到汇率合作。这种汇率协调的思维与欧洲贸易一体化相辅相承，为欧盟和欧元区的建立提供了重要的现实基础和制度保障。可见，这种由汇率协调“思维”所带来的汇率稳定是欧洲货币联盟建立的先行者，也就是说，欧洲国家间汇率的稳定是其组建欧洲货币联盟的重要前提条件。基于这样一个逻辑框架，在东亚区域经济体汇率稳定（自发性汇率协调）的基础上，是否可以形成最优货币区，这也是本文所要阐明的问题。本文首先对亚洲金融危机后东亚区域货币金融合作的现状进行了简要的回顾，包括东亚区域信息沟通及预警机制的建立、清迈倡议的启动及其多边化、东亚债券市场的发展等。在此基础上重点介绍了目前东亚区域汇率协调取得的进展。从现实情况来看，尚无制度性加以保障的汇率协调与合作，而亚洲货币单位的建立也仅作为衡量区域内经济体汇率变动情况的一般性指标，并无推动东亚区域汇率协调与合作进一步发展的实质性力量。最后，危机频发使东亚经济体认识到加强区域经济合作的重要性与紧迫性，但目前东亚经济体对“美元体制”的依赖和美国霸权的绝对影响仍是现阶段东亚区域合作面临的主要障碍。由此得出现阶段美元体制与东亚区域经济体自发性汇率协调的关系，并指出东亚经济体汇率协调与合作的两个悖论：其一，现阶段美元体制和美国霸权是阻碍东亚经济体汇率协调与合作的重要原因，而东亚经济体汇率的联动性反而是通过盯住美元实现的。其二，东亚经济体贸易的发展极易受到美元汇率波动的影响，东亚经济体希望能够减少美元汇率波动的负效应，但又不得不把大量的贸易顺差和外汇储备输入美国，形成对美元资产和美国资本市场的依赖，从而进一步巩固了东亚区域盯住汇率制度。东亚经济体的地位较为尴尬，既是美元体制的支撑者，又是美元体制的受害者；既想摆脱对美元体制的依赖，又不得不在美元体制下展开合作。麦金农（Mckinnon）①认为美元本位制的形成是一次偶然，而赫德森（Hudson）②指出现行以美元为主导的国际货币体系是经过美国充分设计的。从经济史的角度来看，美元的霸权地位起源于布雷顿森林体系的双挂钩机制，而布雷顿森林体系崩溃后美元地位不仅没有被削弱，反而进一步得到了加强。这既得益于商品美元和石油美元的回流机制，又得益于债券的美元计价机制。可以看出，商品美元的回流是美元霸权的重要支撑。也就是说，东亚经济体是美元霸权的重要支撑者，这种支撑作用在汇率方面的投射就是东亚经济体普遍采取盯住美元汇率制度。虽然东亚经济体官方多宣称使用的是有管理的浮动汇率制度，但盯住美元的这一现象已经通过多种实证检验方法加以证实了，即便是在不同时期美元权重有所不同，但美元的绝对地位从未被动摇。那么，基于“传递”效应，在东亚各经济体盯住汇率制度基础上，它们之间应该表现出汇率联动的特征。基于此，本文对东亚经济体汇率变动相关系数、基于G-PPP理论的汇率变动情况进行实证检验。结果表明，无论从短期还是从长期来看，东亚经济体间存在着没有制度性约束的汇率联动性特征。也就是说，东亚经济体间存在着自发性的汇率协调，为东亚区域汇率合作乃至形成最优货币区提供了一定的理论基础和经验支持。值得注意的是，这种汇率联动性以盯住美元为前提，由东亚经济体间紧密的贸易联系、相似的产业结构和贸易结构、趋同的经济周期和宏观经济政策加以保证。即在商品美元回流机制和东亚整体区域经济增长的前提下，这种汇率联动特征在未来较长一段时间内可以持续。基于东亚经济体自发性的汇率协调，本文用最优货币区理论标准检验东亚自发性汇率协调区域是否构成了最优货币区。首先，通过建立数理模型分析组建最优货币区所带来的宏观经济政策调整成本。随后，对东亚经济体生产要素标准、经济开放度标准、产品多样化标准、金融一体化标准、通胀相似性标准和政策一体化标准进行检验。分析结果表明，东亚经济体最优货币区标准检验结果并不理想，这既与标准选择的可行性与有效性有关，亦与东亚经济体的某些特殊情况有关。基于此，本文从东亚经济体一体化程度出发，分析东亚经济体是否存在着“事后”的最优货币区。长期来看，东亚经济体自发性汇率协调区域满足了组建最优货币的部分条件，已经具备了推进更高层次合作的可能性。文章最后对东亚区域汇率协调与合作的长期安排进行探讨。贝奥米和埃肯格林（Bayoumi and Eichengreen，1994）指出任何中间汇率制度最终都会向两极汇率制度过渡。然而，从东亚区域的现实状况来看，美元体制仍是制约其合作的最重要因素。应在本文分析的东亚区域自发性汇率协调的基础上，充分发挥人民币作为区域稳定器的作用①，同时明确区域合作中中国、日本甚至是美国的领导地位。短期来看，进一步巩固与加强东亚经济体间的汇率联动关系；中期来看，巩固加强现有东亚货币金融合作取得的成果，充分协调中日两国的关系；长期来看，以东亚次区域汇率协调推动东亚区域汇率合作，最终实现东亚地区货币一体化。本文结论如下：第一，在东亚经济体盯住美元的汇率制度下，各经济体间表现出汇率联动的特征，形成了自发性汇率协调。第二，这种汇率联动性以盯住美元为前提，由东亚经济体间紧密的贸易联系、相似的产业结构和贸易结构，趋同的经济周期和宏观经济政策加以保证。第三，在保证美元体制和东亚整体区域经济增长的前提下，这种汇率联动特征在未来较长一段时间内可以持续。第四，东亚自发性汇率协调区域满足部分最优货币区的标准，具备了推进更高层次合作的可能性。第五，短期来看，进一步巩固与加强东亚经济体间的汇率联动关系；中期来看，充分协调中日两国的关系；长期来看，以东亚次区域汇率协调推动东亚区域汇率合作，最终实现东亚地区货币一体化。更多还原

【Abstract】 Starting from the current situation of foreign exchange rate volatility in East AsiaEconomies, backing to the choice of exchange rate regime, supported by the idea ofcoordination, this is what the paper follows. First of all, as a reality, East AsiaEconomies’ exchange rate regime pegged to the dollar has been confirmed. Andunder the premise of pegged to the dollar, the exchange rate of East Asia Economiesshould show a correlation basing on the idea of “transfer”.Then, how about thereality? How about the correlation in the short-term and long-term? Whether theexchange rate correlation in East Asia Economies can last? Does there have formed apotential Optimal Currency Areas with exchange rate linkage? And if it does, how doEast Asia Economies choose their exchange rate regime? With empirical tests andtheoretical analysis, this paper will answer these questions.Actually, thinking these problems start from the establishment of the Euro Zone.The writer thinks that there is an idea of exchange rate coordination in Europeancountries. From European countries claiming to establish the gold standard to Britainputting forward “Keynes plan” after Word War Ⅱ, from the countries coordinatingexchange rate spontaneously within Bretton Woods system to European countriesestablishing “Snake in the Tunnel” after the system collapse, from EuropeanMonetary System to setting up Euro Zone, exchange rate coordination is always inthere, which has transfer to exchange rate cooperation. The thought of exchange ratecoordination, which is complement with European trade integration, has provided animportant realistic foundations as well as institution guarantee for establish ofEuropean Union and Euro Zone. This kind of exchange stability which is based onexchange rate coordination is a forerunner of the European Monetary Union (EMU).We can also say exchange stability among European countries is the prerequisites forestablishing EMU. Based on this logical, this paper has also clarifies whether therecan compose an Optimal Currency Area within exchange rate stability—spontaneous exchange rate coordination—of East Asia Economies.Firstly, this paper gives a brief overview of the current situation of regionalmonetary and financial cooperation in East Asia after the financial crisis, includingestablishing systems for East Asia regional information communication and warning,activating CMI and CMIM, developing East Asia Bond Market etc. And then thispaper focus on the present progress that East Asia regional exchange rate coordinationhas made. From a practical point of view, there is no institutional coordination ofexchange rate. What’s more, the establishment of Asian Montary Unit, which hasonly been a general index on measuring the exchange rate changes of economics, hasno substantial force to promote exchange rate coordination in East Asia for furtherdevelopment. Lastly, the crisis made East Asia economies realize the importance andurgency for regional economic cooperation. However, the main barrier to East Asiaregional cooperation is relying on the dollar system and absolute influence ofAmerican hegemony. Then this paper comes to the relationship between the dollarsystem and spontaneous exchange rate coordination of East Asia economies. Andpoint out two paradoxes about exchange rate coordination of East Asia regionalEconomies:Firstly, the dollar system and American hegemony is the important reason forimpeding East Asia economies exchange rate coordination. But because of pegged tothe dollar, East Asia economies exchange rate has shown some linkage. Secondly, thetrade of East Asia economies is affected by pegged to the dollar. They hope to reducethe negative effect from the dollar exchange rate fluctuations, but have to export largetrade surplus and exchange reserves to America. Because of that, they have to rely ondollar assets and U.S. capital markets, and thus further consolidate the peg currencyregime. Supporting the dollar system but suffering from it, wanting to get the dollarsystem off, but having to cooperate under it, the status of East Asia economies isembarrassed.McKinnon thought that the establishment of the dollar system is only a matter ofchance,while Hudson point out that the current international monetary systemdominated by the dollar is designed by U.S. From the perspective of economic history,the dollar hegemony originated from the Bretton Woods System. And thanks to thecommodity-dollar and petro-dollars reflux mechanism and bond in dollars, the dollar’s status is reinforced after the collapse of Bretton Woods System instead ofdecline.Thus the dollar hegemony is supported by commodity dollar refluxmechanism, that is, the East Asia economies is an important supporter to the dollarhegemony,which means the East Asia adopted pegged to the dollar exchange rateregime.Although the official of East Asia economies claimed that they take themanaged floating exchange rate system.The dollar’s status is never shaken, which hasbeen confirmed through a variety of empirical test.So, based on transmission effect, East Asia economies should have a character ofexchange rate linkage within pegged exchange rate. Based on that, this paperempirically analyses the correlation of East Asia economies exchange rate andexchange rate changes basing on G-PPP theory. And it shown that there is exchangerate linkage which has non-institution constrains in East Asia economies, no matter inlong-term or short-term. It also means that there is spontaneous exchange ratecoordination in East Asia economies, and that provides theoretical basis andexperience supports for exchange rate cooperation, even establishing the OptimumCurrency Area in East Asia region. However, that linkage of exchange rate is underthe premise of pegged to the dollar and guaranteed by the close trade links betweenEast Asia economies, similar industrial structure and trade structure, convergence ofeconomic cycles and macroeconomic policies. That is, under the premise ofcommodity dollars reflux mechanism and regional economic growth in East Asia, thisexchange rate linkage feature can last for a long time.Based on East Asia economies spontaneous exchange rate cooperation, thispaper examine whether they can composed an Optimum Currency Area. First of all,this paper uses a numerical method to analyze the adjustment cost of macroeconomicpolicy caused by composing Optimum Currency Area. Then the writer tested the EastAsia economies’ standard such as mobility of factors, economic openness, productdiversification, financial integration, similarity of inflation and policy integration. Theresults show that the East Asia economies Optimal Currency Area criteria test are notsatisfied.This maybe because of the feasibility and effectiveness of standard’s choiceand the special conditions for East Asia economies. So, from the perspective of EastAsia economies integration, this paper analyzed whether there is an afterwardsOptimum Currency Area.In the long run, East Asia economies spontaneous exchange rate region had the condition to establish the Optimum Currency Area and thepossibility to promote a higher lever of cooperation.At the end of this paper, this paper discussed the long term arrangement of EastAsia regional exchange rate coordination and cooperation. Eichengreen claims thatany intermediate exchange rate regimes can eventually transfer to float exchange rateregimes or fixed exchange rate regimes. However, from a practical point of view, thedollar system is still a major constraint. So RMB should be a regional stabilizer ofEast Asia, based on East Asia economies spontaneous exchange rate coordination.Meanwhile, the leadership of China, Japan, even U.S. should be clarified in regionalcooperation. What’s more, in a short time, the exchange rate linkage in East Asiaeconomies should be strengthened. In a medium time, consolidating the results of theexisting monetary and financial cooperation which East Asia had achieved, andcoordinated the relationship between China and Japan.In a long time, from East Asiasub-regional exchange rate coordination to promote regional cooperation, andultimately achieve monetary integration in East Asia.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1) Within East Asia economies pegged to the dollar, the economies show somecharacters of exchange rate linkage, and made a spontaneous exchange ratecoordination region.(2) This exchange rate linkage was premised on pegged to the dollar, ensured byclose trade connection, similar industrial structure and trade structure, convergingeconomic cycle and macroeconomic policy in East Asia economies.(3) Under ensuring the dollar system and East Asia regional economic growth,this exchange rate linkage feature will last for a long time.(4) East Asia region which has spontaneous exchange rate coordination alreadymeet part of the Optimal Currency Areas standards, which have the possibility topromote a higher level of cooperation.(5) In a short time, the exchange rate linkage in East Asia economies should bestrengthened. In a medium time, consolidating the results of the existing monetaryand financial cooperation which East Asia has achieved, and coordinating therelationship between China and Japan.In a long time, from East Asia sub-regional exchange rate coordination to promote regional cooperation, and ultimately achievemonetary integration in East Asia.更多还原