【作者】 于亮；

【导师】 孙少岩；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 金融学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 随着全球经济一体化的发展和科学技术的突飞猛进，金融市场快速发展，各种金融创新层出不穷，金融领域的竞争可谓日新月异。国内外大量的研究表明，银行体系是否稳定对于一个国家的经济增长和社会发展起着举足轻重的作用。随着国际金融形势出现的新变化，各国的监管当局在监管理念、监管手段、监管目标以及监管框架等方面都在发生着巨大的转变，国际银行监管领域正在呈现出一些新的发展趋势。改革开放以来，我国银行业在深化改革、加强监管、改善服务、支持国民经济发展等方面取得了巨大的进步，但与此同时，银行业在高速发展的过程中也积累和暴露出了很多问题。自2003年银监会成立以来，我国逐步建立了以银监会为主体、人民银行及其他部门共同参与的银行监管框架体系。经过十年的发展，银行监管取得了长足的进步，证明了我国的银行监管体系框架是基本有效的，但是相比国际标准和行业发展要求来看，我国的银行监管水平仍然存在较大差距。随着银行业混业发展趋势的加剧和国际上金融危机的爆发愈加频繁，这一监管体系框架遭受到越来越多的挑战。本文沿着提出问题、分析问题、解决问题的脉络，对我国银行监管体系的完善与发展提出了相应的解决对策。文章对中国银行业监管的历史变迁、发展现状及体系框架进行了细致的分析。经过十多年的改革发展，我国商业银行的账面指标，包括银行的总体规模、资产质量、盈利水平、抵御风险能力等都取得了长足的进步，银行业所取得的这些成绩是否意味着我国银行监管也取得了巨大的成功呢？本文随后对我国商业银行的业绩来源进行了分析，得出了我国商业银行取得的成绩一部分源于中国经济的高速增长、宽松的货币政策、较高的存贷利率差水平和一些政策性扶持等外生变量的共同作用。文章分析了现阶段我国银行业监管面临的主要问题。第一，近年来，影子银行体系的发展日益壮大，逐渐引起了国内外金融界的广泛关注，我国的影子银行虽然与西方发达国家有所不同，但也有可能引发潜在的风险。本文对影子银行体系及其脆弱性进行了深入分析，通过对中国影子银行体系风险的实证分析，指出中国影子银行体系发展较晚，规模较小，引发危机的可能性很小，目前不会成为中国银行业系统性风险的来源，但也不能放松对其监管。第二，随着国际间资本流动的不断加剧，资本项目的自由兑换已经是我国深化改革开放的一项战略性任务，中国资本账户开放的步伐也在不断加快。通过对国外资本账户开放与银行业发生危机的实证研究，得出资本账户的开放与银行业危机的发生并没有显著的关联，并进一步说明了中国资本账户开放的必然性。第三，本文对我国银行业资本监管的实践进行了梳理，对资本监管的有效性进行了分析。从微观角度来看，我国的资本监管是有效的，符合巴塞尔委员会的相关标准和要求，但在一些方面还有待加强。从宏观角度来看，我国资本监管的有效性还存在很多问题，总体效果不尽如人意。第四，本文还对我国商业银行系统性风险的内涵进行了说明，并根据Logit二元离散选择模型对系统性风险的成因进行了实证分析，揭示了引起系统性风险的一些宏观经济变量，指出了目前中国银行体系所面临的系统性风险，主要包括经济增长速度放缓、高额的地方政府债务、房地产市场泡沫、互联网金融的快速发展等，对银行体系可能带来巨大的冲击，监管当局应密切监管，加强防范。第五，针对我国可能会面临的系统性风险，我国银行监管当局该如何化解，文章中列举了我国宏观审慎监管制度的优势与不足，为化解我国银行系统性风险提供了解决方案。2007年次贷危机的爆发改变了全球的金融面貌，并对全球银行体系造成了巨大损失。在此背景下，西方发达国家纷纷进行了监管改革。本文通过对美国、英国、欧盟等国家及国际组织的监管改革进行系统的梳理和分析，得出了国际监管改革的潮流和趋势，为我国银行监管体制的改革提供了参考和借鉴。为了防止类似危机的再次上演，《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ》正式出台。本文对《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ》进行了解读并分析了该协议的出台可能对中国银行业监管带来的影响。最后，本文提出了完善我国银行业监管体系的对策建议。在对我国银行监管的现状、目前存在的问题进行分析和梳理后，在借鉴西方发达国家银行监管改革经验的基础上，结合我国的实际情况，提出了完善我国银行监管体系的对策建议。同时，对于我国如何防范各种系统性风险，如何制定符合中国银行业资本监管的框架体系，对影子银行体系的发展如何监管，如何完善我国宏观审慎监管制度，如何构建适合中国资本账户开放的基础环境等方面，都提出了有针对性、富有建设性的政策建议，为防范金融风险在我国银行体系的传播和蔓延提供了借鉴和参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The financial market has been developing rapidly with the advancement ofglobal economic integration as well as science and technology. The competition infinancial sector was also changing with endless new financial products. Numerousstudies in this field have indicated that stability of the banking system played a veryimportant role in the growth of economy and the stabilization of society. Due to newdevelopments in international finance, national regulatory authorities are undergoingtremendous changes in regulatory philosophy, means of supervision, regulatoryobjectives and regulatory frameworks. Additionally, international banking regulatoryareas are showing some new trends.China’s banking industry has made tremendous contributions in many aspects,such as deepening reform, strengthening supervision, improving services andsupporting national economic development since the reform and opening up.However, problems have accumulated and been exposed during the rapiddevelopment of the banking sector for various reasons. The China BankingRegulatory Commission was established in2003. Since then, our country graduallyestablished a banking supervision framework, with China Banking RegulatoryCommission constituting its main part and the People’s Bank, together with otherdepartments participating. After a decade of development, banking supervision hasmade considerable progress, proving that China’s banking regulatory systemframework is effective. But compared to international standards and industryrequirements, China’s banking supervision level is still far behind. This regulatorysystem framework is facing more and more challenges in the developing trend ofmixing banking with operation, as well as more frequent international financial crises.This article puts forward the corresponding strategies for the improvement anddevelopment of China’s banking regulatory system along the vein of asking questions,analyzing situations and solving problems. This paper analyzes the historical change, development status quo andframework and system of the China banking regulatory in detail. After ten years ofreform and development, the carrying indicators of China’s commercial banks havemade considerable progress， including the bank’s overall size, asset quality,profitability, and ability to resist risk. Did these achievements made in the bankingsector mean that China’s banking regulator was a huge success? This paper analyzedthe sources of the performance of our country’s commercial banks, then drew theconclusion that the achievements of China’s commercial banks mainly came from thecombined effect of exogenous variables such as China’s rapid economic growth, looseand comfortable monetary policy, bigger differences between deposit and loaninterest rates, and other supporting policies.This paper analyzed the main problems of commercial banking supervisionunder the new situation. First, the development of the shadow banking system isgrowing in recent years. It gradually attracted widespread attention at home andabroad of the financial sector. Although our shadow banking differs from Westerncountries, it also may lead to potential risks. This paper analyzes the shadow bankingsystem and its fragility. Through the empirical analysis of China’s shadow bakingsystem’s risk, this paper pointed out that a systemic crisis caused by the shadowbanking system in China was unlikely to happen because its development relativelylate and its size was relatively small. But we shouldn’t relax the regulation. Second,free convertibility of capital accounts has already become a strategic task indeepening reform and opening up as the international capital movements grew.China’s capital account liberalization is also accelerating. Through empirical researchon foreign capital account liberalization and the banking crisis, we concluded thatthere was no significant association between capital account and the incidence ofbanking crisis. This conclusion further illustrated the necessity of the opening ofChina’s capital account. Third, this paper combed the practice of our country’s bankcapital regulatory and analyzed the effectiveness of our commercial bankingregulators. From the micro perspective, China’s bank capital regulation is effectiveand it complies with the relevant standards and requirements of the Basel Committee,while in some aspects it also needs to be improved. From the macro perspective, there were many problems in the effectiveness of capital regulation, and its overall effect isnot as satisfactory as from the micro level. Forth, this article also explained themeaning of systemic risk of China’s commercial banks, studied the cause of systemicrisk with empirical analysis methods based on the Logit binary discrete choice model,revealed some macroeconomic variables which could cause Systemic risk, andpointed out the systemic risks that China’s banking system was facing. The risksmainly include slower economy growth, high local government debt, propertybubbles, the development of internet and so on. These may impact the bankingsystem. And the regulatory authorities should be closely regulated. Fifth, facing thesystemic risks, this paper cited the advantages and disadvantages of China’sMacro-prudential supervision and provided a solution to resolve the bank’s systemicrisk.The subprime crisis, which occurred in2007, has changed the global financiallandscape and caused huge losses to the global banking system. In this circumstance,the western developed countries have regulatory reform. Through combing andanalyses the regulatory reform of the nations and international organizations, such asU.S., U.K. and E.U, we know the tide and trend of international regulatory reforms.And this provides a reference for China’s banking supervision system reform. TheBasel Ⅲ was formally launched in order to prevent the recurrence of a similar crisis.This paper interpreted "Basel Ⅲ" and analyzed the possible impact that the accords’Promulgation might bring to banking regulation in China.Lastly, this paper put forward the countermeasures and suggestions of perfectingthe banking supervision system in China. With analysis of the current situation andexisting problems of China’s banking supervision, on the basis of learning fromwestern developed countries’ reforming of banking supervision, combined withChina’s actual conditions, this paper puts forward the countermeasures andsuggestions of perfecting our country’s banking supervision system. Meanwhile, thispaper proposed targeted and constructive policy recommendations on how to preventvarious systemic risk, how to formulate banking capital regulation framework thatcomply in China, how to regulate the development of the shadow banking system,how to improve China’s macro-prudential supervision, how to build a suitable foundation environment for China’s capital account liberalization, etc. Thus, thispaper provided a useful reference in preventing the spread of financial risks in ourbanking system.更多还原