【作者】 蔚志新；

【导师】 尹豪；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 人口学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 我国不仅快速进入老龄化社会，而且将向深度老龄化发展。建立完善的社会养老保险体系和制度，是各国应对人口老龄化的重要措施。改革开放以来，我国的基本养老保险体系经历了以职工基本养老保险制度的初步建立和不断深化向农村居民社会养老保险保险制度（从老农保到新农保）和城镇居民社会养老保险逐步扩展的改革发展历程。2011年，《社会保险法》的出台和《基本公共服务体系“十二五”规划》的发布，从法律和政策层面确立了我国城乡统筹的基本养老保险制度。第六次全国人口普查数据显示，2010年我国流动人口数量达2.21亿人，占全国人口总量的16.5%。我国目前正在经历一场人类历史上最大规模的人口流动和迁移。未来一段时期内，我国工业化和城市化仍将持续推进，流动人口规模呈现不断扩大的趋势。如此庞大的流动人口进入老年的趋势和我国人口老龄化的进度是重合的。按照法律和政策规定的城乡统筹基本养老保险制度，流动人口能够参加流入地的职工基本养老保险及户籍地的新型农村社会养老保险和城镇居民社会养老保险。在此种形势下，对流动人口参加基本养老保险的认识和把握，不仅需要关注他们流入地参加职工基本养老保险，而且还应关注他们户籍地参加农村和城镇居民社会养老保险。基于此，本文运用2011年全国性流动人口抽样调查数据，既对流动人口在流入地参加职工基本养老保险以及在户籍地参加农村和城镇居民社会养老保险进行了针对性的深入分析，也将流入地和户籍地衔接起来对流动人口参加职工基本养老保险、新型农村社会养老保险和城镇居民社会养老保险进行了系统性的综合研究。对于流动人口在流入地参加职工基本养老保险的分析结果显示，仅有不足1/4的流动人口参加了流入地社会养老保险，且流动人口参加社会养老保险存在着人口社会、流动家庭和就业状况特征等方面的差异。进而，对流动人口参加社会养老保险进行分群体的深入分析结果表明，在私营企业就业的雇员、以及在个体工商户的自营劳动者和雇员参加社会养老保险的比例较低；而最先迈入老龄阶段的长期外出流动人口相较停留时间较短流动人口，其参加社会养老保险的比例不升反降；且中西部地区省级单位流动人口相较东部地区省级单位流动人口，其参加社会养老保险的比例明显偏低。与此同时，对流动人口参加户籍地的新型农村社会养老保险和城镇居民社会养老保险的分析结果表明，未参加流入地社会养老保险的农业户口流动人口中，有1/10左右的他们参加了户籍地农村社会养老保险；以及未参加流入地社会养老保险的非农户口流动人口中，有不足1/4的他们参加了户籍地城镇社会养老保险。两种户口性质流动人口参加户籍地社会养老保险较为一致的趋势为，随着年龄的增大、家庭月总收入的增高和停留时间的增长，他们的参与比例在上升。此外，两者均以受教育程度较高者、同住家庭成员人数为2人者、近距离流动者、住房状况为自建/自购房者和户籍地区为东部者参与比例为最高。总的来看，我们将三种社会养老保险综合为基本养老保险进行实证分析的结果表明，我国目前有1/3左右的流动人口参加了至少一种社会养老保险，基本养老保险参与整体水平偏低且存在一定的重复参保情况；城乡分割的两种户口性质群体参保差距较大，非农户口流动人口基本养老保险参与水平远高于农业户口流动人口；区域分割的不同省份和地区参保差异明显，东部地区省份省际流动人口流入地社会养老保险参与比例较高，西部地区省份省际和省内流动人口户籍地农村社会养老保险参与比例较高；私营性质单位（主要是私营企业和个体工商户）雇员和自营劳动者参保不容乐观，以及最先迈入老龄阶段的年长者参保令人堪忧，而家庭收入与住房状况的改善，则会对流动人口参加基本养老保险有所促进。此外，受教育程度作为重要的人力资本因素，与就业单位和行业类别相联动，对流动人口参加基本养老保险发挥重要作用。大多数发达国家较早地进入了人口老龄化社会，在积极应对人口老龄化的过程中，他们均经过几十年、甚至上百年的时间，逐步建立了“全民皆保”的社会养老保险体系并健全了“运行畅顺”的社会养老保险制度。通过对日本、美国、瑞典、智利和欧盟等国家和区域在逐步完善养老保险制度和政策的梳理，结合我国自身的人口社会特点，尤其流动人口这一特殊群体，提出了推进我国城乡统筹、覆盖全民的基本养老保险的建议，以期能够有效应对我国的人口老龄化，促进社会经济的稳定和可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is fast entering an ageing society and the ageing degree becomes higherand higher. As a result, it is imperative for every country in the world to build asound social old-age insurance system and institution to deal with an ageingpopulation. Since reform and opening-up, the basic old-age insurance system inChina has been improving step by step, from basic old-age insurance system forurban workers to social old-age insurance system for rural population and anexpanding social old-age insurance system for urban residents. In2011, SocialInsurance Law and the12thFive-Year Plan on Basic Public Service System wereissued, which marks the establishment of a basic old-age insurance system thatcovers both China’s urban and rural population in terms of law and policies.In accordance with the result of the6th nationwide population census,2010saw221million of floating population across our country, accounting for16.5%of thetotal population. Currently, China is undergoing an unprecedentedly massivepopulation migration. With further industrialization and urbanization in future, therewill be an increasingly big floating population, a trend that coincides with theemergence of an aging society. In the light of the basic old-age insurance system thatworks for the overall urban-rural planning, floating people are eligible to be includedin basic old-age insurance in the city where they work as well as new rural socialold-age insurance and social old-age insurance for urban residents in the city wherethey are registered as permanent residents.Under such circumstances, to have a clear picture of the basic old-age insurancefor floating population, we should concern not only the basic old-age insurance theyenjoy in the city where they work, but also social old-age insurance for rural orurban residents in the place where their registered residence is. On the basis of the2011sample survey data on nationwide floating population, a targeted in-deepanalysis is made on the basic old-age insurance floating people enjoy in the city where they work and social old-age insurance they enjoy in the place where theirregistered residence is. In addition, a comprehensive study is conducted on the basicold-age insurance, new rural social old-age insurance and social old-age insurancefor urban residents for China’s floating population.According to the analysis result of the basic old-age insurance that floatingpopulation participate in the city they flow into, only less than1/4of floatingpopulation enjoy social old-age insurance in the city they migrate to. Not only that,there exists differences in population community, floating families and employmentstatus. Further analysis reveals there are even less people insured in privately-andindividually-owned businesses. And, in comparison with short-term migrators, wecan see a drop in the proportion of people who first enter the ageing phase and areincluded in the social pension system. Furthermore, the ratio of floating peopleinsured in mid and western China is apparently lower than those in provinces of EastChina.Meanwhile, in line with the analysis result of new rural social old-ageinsurance and social old-age insurance for urban residents that floating peopleparticipate in the place of domicile, among rural floating population who are notincluded in the social old-age insurance system in the city they flow into, around1/10of them enjoy rural social old-age insurance in the place where they registeredresidence is. Additionally, among non-rural floating population that have no accessto the social old-age insurance system, less than1/4of them are covered in the urbansocial old-age insurance system in the place where they’re registered as permanentresidents. But, more and more people from the two groups have access to theinsurance system as they grow old, stay longer in the inflow area and haveincreasing family income. Moreover, most people below are included in the socialpension system, such as people with a good educational background, families withonly2members, migrators who work not far from their place of domicile, those whohave houses of their own and whose registration residence is in east China.Generally speaking, empirical analysis on the three basic old-age insuranceshows: around1/3of floating people are included in at least one social old-ageinsurance; the general level of insurance tend to be low and there are even somepeople who have overlapping insurance; there is a big gap between insurance forrural population and that for urban residents; the number of non-rural population insured is much bigger than that of rural people; and, there exists a big differencebetween different provinces or regions in terms of the number people insured; largenumbers of floating people are included in the social old-age insurance system ineast China; there is a big proportion of rural people who are covered in the ruralsocial old-age insurance system in west China; things does not good for people whoare self-employers or are employed in private-or individual-owned businesses orwho are entering the ageing phase the first; improvement in housing and familyincome help to improve the situation for floating people. Additionally, educationalbackground as a key human resource element has a key role in getting the floatingpopulation insured through combined effects with work units and the specificindustries they are in.Most developed countries have entered the ageing society at an earlier time. Inresponse to this issue, they have established a sound and comprehensive old-ageinsurance system for each of their citizen through dozens of or even over100yearsof efforts. On the basis of the research on policies on the old-age insurance system inJapan, the US, Sweden, Chile and European Union and the specific features ofChinese population, especially that the floating population, suggestions are putforward in the thesis about how to improve the basic old-age insurance system thatworks for the overall urban-rural development. I hope these suggestions may play apart in dealing with the issue of an ageing population and promoting economicstability and sustainable development.更多还原