【作者】 单博；

【导师】 王清； 陈剑平；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 地质工程， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 众所周知，我国疆域面积可达960×104km2，居世界第三位，可谓幅员辽阔，受印度洋板块和欧亚大陆板块运动的影响，致使我国地质构造和地形地貌条件极为复杂，近70%的国土面积被山地所覆盖，地质灾害频发，是世界上遭受地质灾害威胁最为严重的国家之一，西南山区地处我国第二与第三阶梯的过渡带上，构造活动强烈，受地质灾害的影响尤为严重。据中华人民共和国地质环境监测院发布的《全国地质灾害通报》显示，我国地质灾害主要有滑坡、泥石流、崩塌和地面沉降等多种类型。因地质灾害的发生，每年都会造成数千人员伤亡和失踪，经济损失数以亿计。滑坡灾害乃为我国最常发的地质灾害类型，分布范围广泛，每年发生次数可达数万甚至数十万起，严重的威胁了我国人民的生命财产安全。5.12汶川大地震之后我国西南地区滑坡灾害发生频率更高。大型水电站或引水工程库区内发生滑坡灾害会对坝址安全、库区正常发挥功能及人民的生命财产造成严重危害。论文基于3S技术，对奔子栏水源地库区库岸滑坡易发性和区划滑坡风险性进行了评价及区划研究。论文以2010年水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目（《西南大型水库库岸滑坡灾害影响与对策研究》）和国家自然基金“快速隆升典型河段复杂结构岩体灾变与水库工程活动互馈机理研究”为依托，以拟建的奔子栏水源地库区内发育的滑坡灾害体为研究对像，以SPOT5遥感图像为数据源进行了奔子栏水源地库区滑坡灾害的解译，并结合野外现场调查，对库区内滑坡灾害发育的地质背景和库岸稳定性进行了分析。首先，基于现场地质调查、遥感解译和室内分析，对库区滑坡灾害分布、库岸稳定性、滑坡成因机制及分类进行了研究；其次，选取了15个库岸滑坡易发性评价指标，利用组合赋权原理确定各评价指标的最终权重值，最后基于未确知测度理论对库岸滑坡易发性进行了评价及分段；最后，选取9个滑坡灾害危险性评价指标，基于模糊证据权模型和综合危险性指数模型对区域滑坡危险性进行了评价及区划，选取5个滑坡灾害易损性评价指标，基于行政村为基本评价单元对滑坡灾害进行了易损性评价及区划，在此基础上进而对库区进行了滑坡灾害风险性评价及区划研究。论文共分六章，第1章为绪论，介绍了选题依据和研究意义，总结了滑坡灾害易发性、风险性的国内外现状，并介绍了论文的主要内容和技术路线以及论文的创新点。第2章从奔子栏水源地水库工程概况、地形地貌特征、气象水文特征、地层岩性特征、地质构造特征及地震活动特征六个方面详细介绍了奔子栏水源地库区内滑坡地质灾害的发育背景。第3章介绍了滑坡灾害遥感解译的方法、步骤及解译内容，分析了库区岸段稳定性、滑坡空间分布特征、成因机制及所属分类。第4章分析了岸坡结构类型及与滑坡发育的规律，选取了15个评价指标对库岸滑坡易发性进行了定量评价及分段。第5章详细论述了区域滑坡灾害危险性评价指标和易损性评价指标的选取原则及依据，基于ArcGIS操作平台完成了各评价指标的提取，采用非线性数学方法或模型对库区内滑坡灾害危险性、易损性及风险性进行了评估及区划研究。第6章为结论与展望，对全文的研究成果进行了总结，提出了研究方法和结果的不足之处，对未来的研究方向进行了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recently years, the geological disasters occurred frequently due to globalenvironmental deterioration. The study of geological disasters susceptibility, hazard,vulnerability or harmful and risk is the focal point and difficulty in the disasterprevention and mitigation process, and attracts many researcher’s concern andattention. China is a country characterized by vast territory, extensive mountainranges, special geological structure and topography features, which can provide agood geological environment for breeding geological disasters. Therefore, China,specifically the southwest that locates a transition zone between the first step and thesecond step, is one of countries seriously affected by geological disasters in theworld. Landslide is a kind of common geological disaster occurred in China.Landslide characterized by widely distributing and frequently occurring bringsserious threat to people lives and property. As we all know, landslide disasters thatlocated in large scale hydropower project reservoir area once occurred will seriouslythe dam site safety, reservoir function properly, and people’s lives and property.Therefore, susceptibility and risk assessment research not only have great academicsignificance value, but also can provide scientific data for local government to makedisaster prevention and mitigation measures, having great practical value.In this paper, the3S technology was introduced into landslide study. Based onthe3S technology, laboratory analysis and geological survey in the field, we analyzed the bank stability, spatial distribution and early stability of landslides.Three dimensional digital model of landslide was established based on the SPOT5remote sensing imag. Under the help of rock type and rock attitude data, obtainedfrom field geological survey in the special geological point, a method is proposed toanalyze landslide formation mechanism in the areas where there are less drillingdata.Landslide characteristics, river bank structure, lithology, topography, geologicalstructure, and predisposing factors are taken into consided to analyze the majorfactors that effect bank landslide susceptibility. At last, fifteen major factors wereselected to establish evaluation index system. Combination weighting theory wasused to assign each evaluation index with a rationl weight. And then, bank landslidesusceptibility assessment model was established based on the unascertained measureand credible degree recognition criteria theory. In this study, four bank landslidesusceptibility classes were constructed: very light, light, moderate, and very high.And the reservoir area bank was mapped with different landslide susceptibility level.According to the assessment results, ten bank segments were classified as havingvery light susceptibility prone to landslide, thirteen segments as light, sixteensegments as moderate, and two moderate as high susceptibility prone to landslide,respectively. And, three, thirteen and eight landslides distribute in light, moderateand high susceptibility bank segments, respectively.In this paper, nine major factors that related with lithology, topography, faults,rver system and predisposing factors are selected to evaluate landslide hazard andmake hazard map. Based on the ArcGIS platform, the major factors and evidencelayers are extracted. And then, the fuzzy weights of evidence model and thecomprehensive hazrd index model are respectively utilized to evaluate landslidehazard and make landslide hazard map. The result shows that the very high and highhazard areas mainly distribute in Jinsha and Dingqu river both sides. The populationdensity, building density, road density, residents’ per capita annual income and arableland density are extracted as landslide vulnerability assessment index. Village isdetermined as the basic evaluation unit. Integrated vulnerability index model is utilized to evaluate landslide vulnerability. The final result shows that the very highand high vulnerability area accounting for7.62%of the total area, and mainlydistribute in the village with high degree of people activity. On the basis of landslidehazard and vulnerability assessment, landslide risk analyzing and risk map is made.The result shows that, the very high and high risk area accounting for19.70%of thetotal area, and mainly distribute in the areas with relatively developed economy andrelative concentration of population. Moderate and low risk area accounting for80.30%of the total area, and mainly distribute in those areas with relatively sparsepopulation, relatively few economic activity and relatively low building density.更多还原