【作者】 周利光；

【导师】 杜凤莲；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古大学 ， 生态学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 气候变化影响了大范围的物理/生物系统和人类活动部门,气候变化问题已成为各国、各地区经济社会可持续发展的重要影响因素之一。如何适应气候变化,成为各国、各地区可持续发展的重要议题和重要任务。在世界各地,政府如何规划适应气候变化需要一个过程,而脆弱性评估和适应对策评估是这个过程中的两个关键部分,尤其对于区域或气候敏感性行业适应气候变化研究。草原畜牧业是草原牧区经济的支柱,也是广大牧民家庭收入的主要来源,在区域国民经济中的作用和地位突出。同时,草原畜牧业是受气候变化影响最敏感和脆弱的部门之一,对人类的食物安全和生活质量将产生深远影响。因此,开展草原畜牧业适应气候变化研究,已成为我国适应气候变化研究和管理中的重要内容,并对我国可持续发展有重大意义。本文的亮点是构建了一个适用于草原畜牧业对气候变化脆弱性研究的包容性评估框架和指标体系,并基于参与式评估和层次分析法从不同层次、不同机构利益相关方的角度对草原畜牧业应对气候变化的适应对策进行了评估排序。本论文主要内容包括三部分：1.草原畜牧业适应气候变化研究进展本文对当前草原畜牧业适应气候变化的相关研究进行了梳理,分析了目前我国草原畜牧业适应气候变化研究中存在的问题,提出了未来的研究重点,将为草原畜牧业应对气候变化和其可持续发展提供重要支撑。2.草原畜牧业对气候变化的脆弱性评估本文采用参与式评估和行动影响矩阵确定了关键的脆弱性因子；使用层次分析法构建了脆弱性评估指标框架；利用脆弱性评估模型计算了内蒙古锡林郭勒草原畜牧业对干旱的脆弱性指数。结果表明：(1)干旱是对草原畜牧业影响最严重和最广泛的气候事件；(2)干旱通过影响草、畜、水等因子,影响牧民生计。而干旱对人体健康的影响往往被利益相关方忽视；(3)畜牧业基础设施差和气候波动大的区域对气候变化更脆弱；(4)在空间尺度和时间尺度上,适应能力的提高都有效降低了草原畜牧业对干旱的脆弱性,适应对策的制定首先要提高适应能力,其次是降低敏感性和暴露度；(5)牧民对气候变化适应能力的提高旨在保障牧民生计和生活质量,可以通过提高牧民收入、改善畜牧业基础设施和补饲能力等来实现。3.草原畜牧业应对气候变化的适应对策评估本文采用参与式评估和层次分析法对内蒙古不同层次和机构的利益相关方就草原畜牧业应对气候变化的适应对策优先项问题进行了研究。结果表明：(1)不同利益相关方对适应气候变化的意识已基本形成,但不同利益相关方对适应对策的认知存在差异；(2)适应对策必须依靠有力、完善的制度和政策；(3)适应的前提是保障牧民的生计和生活质量；(4)政府及研究机构应作为适应主体帮助牧民适应气候变化；(5)应评估区域和气候敏感性政策,适时修改和完善适应对策；(6)需要采取一些预防性措施和更多具体的、实际的适应措施；(7)加强对牧民适应性概念、气象知识和生产管理的培训。更多还原

【Abstract】 Climate change has already impacted upon a large range of physical/biological systems and sectors of human activity, it has become one of the important factors in the process of the national or regional economic and social sustainable development. How to adapt to climate change has become the important issue and task of a national or regional sustainable development. All over the world, governments need a process for planning how to adapt to climate change. Vulnerability assessment and adaptive strategy assessment are two crucial step in climate change adaptation research for regions or climate sensitive industries.Grassland husbandry is the backbone of the pasturing area economy, but also is the main household income source of the majority herdsmen, it has the important role and status in the national economy of region. Meanwhile, grassland husbandry is one of the most sensitive and vulnerable sectors affected by climate change, it will has a profound impact for human food safety and quality of life. Therefore, study on grassland husbandry to adapt to climate change has become an important content of the research and management on adaptation of climate change in China, and it has the greatest signifiance to sustainable development of China. The highlight of this article is that constructed an inclusive vulnerability assessment framework and indicators system in the research of grassland husbandry to climate change, assessed and sorted the adaptive strategies of grassland husbandry to adapt to climate change from the perspective of stakeholders at different levels and organizations based on the Participitating Assessment and Analytic Hierarchy Process.This artical includes three parts:1. The review of grassland husbandry to adapt to climate changeThis article overviews the current research of grassland husbandry to adapt to climate change and climate change adaption science, analyzes and presents the issues of current research and future research emphases in China. This paper will providing the important support for grassland husbandry to coping for climate change and its sustainable development.2. Vulnerability assessment of grassland husbandry to climate changeThis paper adopts the Participating Assessment and Action Impact Matrix to identify the key vulnerability factors. And then we build up the indicator calsses of vulnerability assessment employing the Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology. With the assessment model, we calculate the vulnerability index, which reveals the vulnerability of grassland livestock industry to drought in Xilingol, Inner Mongolia. The results are as following:1) Drought is the most critical climate hazard, inciting serious and vast impact on grassland livestock industry;2) Drought has detrimental impacts on herdsmen’s livelihood because it deteriorates the supplies of grass, livestock, and water in pastoral areas. Unfortunately, the effect of drought on human being’s health is always ignored by stakeholders;3) The areas with poor husbandry infrastructure and intense climatic fluctuation are more vulnerable to climate change;4) The improving adaptive capacity is mainly responsible for the reduction of the vulnerability of grassland livestock industry to climate change in both spatial and temporal scales. The promotion of adaptive capacity is prior to the reductions of both sensitivity and exposure in terms of adaptation strategies to climate change;5) The promotion of adaptive capacity aims to guarantee herdsmen’s livelihood through increasing herdsmen’s economic income, improving the husbandry infrastructure, and enhancing the capacity of supplementary feeding, etc..3. Adaptive strategies assessment of grassland husbandry to adapt to climate changeThis paper employs the methods of Participitating Assessment and Analytic Hierarchy Process to study the adaptation strategies of grassland livestock industry to climate change on different levels and institutions stakeholders in Inner Mongolia. By sorting, assessment and contrast the adaptation strategies are proposed by different stakeholders, we think,1) The awareness of different stakeholders on adapting to climate change have been basically formed, but the cognition of adaptive strategy on different stakeholders that have some differences;2) Adaptation strategies must rely on sound and right system and policies;3) The precondition of adaptation is to guarantee the livelihoods and life quality of herdsmen;4) Government authorities and research institutions should be as the main body to help herdsmen adapting to climate change;5) Regional and climate sensitivity policies should be evaluated, modify and improve the adaptation strategies in timely;6) Need to take some preventive measures and more specific, practical adaptation measures;7) Strengthen the training of adaptation concept, meteorological knowledge and production management to herdsmen.更多还原