【作者】 唐建桥；

【导师】 王慈光；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 我国交通运输的瓶颈制约在一定程度上得到缓解,但还没有从根本上彻底解决,交通运输的瓶颈制约已由“显性”转变为“隐性”,目前存在许多运输结构性矛盾,其协调发展问题十分突出,特别是交通运输可持续发展问题日益严重。为解决目前由于运输结构不合理而导致交通运输发展存在的诸多问题,通过搜集国内外大量相关文献资料,并经综合分析研究,基本掌握目前10个方面的研究现状,找出存在“4重4轻”研究方面的问题和不足,具体做了以下几个方面的研究工作和取得以下几点成绩：1.在运输结构的演变及其规律方面。首先论述运输结构及其演变的概念,研究运输结构的分类和表达式；运用系统自组织(他组织)原理,分析研究运输系统结构演变的耗散结构特征、自组织机理、一般过程和形式等；运用Logistic分析模型,研究各种运输方式间的竞争与协同关系；分析研究了客货运输需求结构演变的影响因素,以及客货运输结构演变的影响因素、主要原因和一般机理,交通科技的进步对运输结构演变的影响等；运用归纳法和演绎法,揭示客货运输结构演变的主要影响因素、一般规律及其对运输结构优化的启示。研究结果表明：各种运输方式间竞争与协同的相互依存过程就是运输结构的动态演变过程,其相互转化是运输结构演变的主要推动力；交通科技的进步对运输结构演变起着重要作用；运输结构的演变至少存在6条一般规律及其对运输结构优化的8点重要启示,对运输结构优化应遵循这些规律性。2.在基于运输供需双重特性的运输结构优化分析方面。运用运输经济学原理、系统科学和信息熵理论等,首先对运输需求、运输供给等若干基本概念辨析,定量分析这些概念间的相互关系,同时探讨运输需求预测的有效性以及运输结构优化应遵循的基本原则；分析研究客货运输需求特性及其要素,定量研究客运需求成本(L)和货运需求成本(H),并建立了相关计量模型等；分析研究5种运输方式的供给特性(即技术经济特性)、适用范围及定量比较,并定量研究几个主要供给特性,建立相关计量模型；重点分析研究了运输供需特性及其对应状况对运输结构优化的影响；运用信息熵理论,分别构建客货运输需求结构信息熵和供给结构信息熵,以及基于供需结构信息熵的运输结构适应性分析与评判模型、标准和方法；最后进行案例分析研究。研究结果表明：运输需求具有8个主要特性和6个基本要素；运输供需特性及其对应状况对区域运输结构优化产生重大影响；运输结构优化应遵循6项基本原则；客货运输供需结构特性可用供需结构信息熵来测度,供需结构信息熵值两者大小应接近,且其熵函数变化趋势和变化速率也应一致,两者熵函数值的相对离差系数C(t)应趋于0,适应度G(t)应趋于1。3.在区域微观层次运输结构优化方面。首先论述运输结构的区位特征；运用复合系统理论和协同学原理,分析研究运输系统的协调特征、结构关联类型及其协调机制；构建运输系统结构协调发展的机理模型及其协调步骤；重点构建微观运输结构发展指数、协调指数和持续指数分析模型；研究了微观运输结构优化评价问题。研究结果表明：运输结构具有区位特征；运输系统结构存在4种关联类型；用以上指数分析模型,能测度和分析评价区域微观层次运输结构的协调发展持续状况及诸要素间的匹配性；可从各运输子系统(方式)主导要素的超前性及其诸要素间的匹配性2方面,分析评价微观运输结构的优化状况。4.在区域中观层次运输结构优化方面。在4.3节基础上,推导出中观运输结构发展指数、协调指数和持续指数分析模型；应用Markov链模型对中观运输结构预测与优化并进行决策分析；运用经济控制论,构建中观运输结构径路优化模型与2种算法；建立了各运输方式间质的协调性和量的比例性评价指标体系；运用产业结构优化理论与方法,构建运输结构优化效率、优化效益和比较优势评价模型,评价运输结构的合理化程度,利用相似判别法和距离判别法,评价运输结构的高度化水平；最后,对珠江三角洲客运结构进行实证研究,以验证预测模型和径路优化模型与算法的有效性。研究结果表明：利用以上指数分析模型,能测度和分析评价中观运输结构的协调发展持续状况以及各运输方式间的协调性；利用Markov链模型能预测客运结构和推算其未来平衡状态结构,并进行相关优化与决策分析；利用路径优化模型与算法,能求解交通运输系统总周转量增长率不低于既定比例的前提下,各运输方式每年应分别以多大的增长率增长,至少需要多少年才能达到某个理想的合理运输结构目标；利用以上中观运输结构质的协调性和量的比例性评价指标、3个评价模型和2种判别法,可分别评价中观运输结构的协调性、合理化程度和高度化水平。5.在区域宏观层次运输结构优化方面。在4.3节和5.2节基础上,推导出宏观层次运输结构发展指数、协调指数和持续指数,以及整个运输系统结构协调发展持续指数分析模型；运用灰色关联分析法,构建客货运输结构适应性分析与评价模型与算法,研究宏观运输结构的适应性；应用投入产出分析法,对宏观运输结构的投入产出特征优化分析与决策分析,求解基于最终纯收入率(或最终产值率)s最高的宏观运输结构最佳总投资(或总产出)结构比,以及现实总投资结构比与其最佳总投资结构比两者间的偏离度ηη及协调度γ等指数；构建基于可持续发展观的宏观运输结构优化模型与算法；分别建立宏观运输结构外部适应性、路网覆盖形态特性和可持续发展的一系列评价指标体系与评价方法。其中,重点推导出基于分形维数的路网覆盖形态特性评价指数模型与算法,利用路网覆盖度和覆盖深度测度和分析评价交通路网覆盖性；构建基于灰色信息熵的运输结构可持续发展综合评价模型与算法,定性定量综合评价其可持续发展状况。最后,对珠三角客货运输结构的适应性进行实证研究,对一运输区域的路网覆盖形态特性进行分析评价,以验证基于灰色关联度的适应性分析评价模型,及路网覆盖形态特性评价模型与算法的有效性。研究结果表明：用以上指数分析模型,能测度和分析评价宏观运输结构以及整个运输系统结构的协调发展持续状况、外部适应性和协调性；利用基于灰色关联度的适应性分析模型与算法,能分析评价区域宏观运输结构的适应性；利用以上最佳总投资结构比以及偏离度η和协调度γ等指数,能确定交通运输业现实总投资结构比的调整优化方向和程度等,为交通投资结构的优化决策提供依据；利用基于可持续发展观的运输结构优化模型与算法,能求解在既定条件下,符合可持续发展观的合理运输结构；用覆盖度和覆盖深度评价路网覆盖形态特性比路网密度等指数更科学合理,因此应尽量使用这2个指数,覆盖度D(r))1.661及相应覆盖深度r可作为评判区域路网形态结构是否合理和功能是否完善的基本标准。以上分析研究,以期为区域运输结构优化研究和路网规划提供新的思路和方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Bottleneck condition of transportation in China was relaxed on a certain extent, but not solved radically, Its "obvious" restrict was replaced by "latent" restrict, there is a lot of contradiction on transportation structure, the development of transportation is not obviously harmonious, sustainable development of transportation is increasingly severe. in order to solve a lot of problems induced by irrational transportation structure, On the basis of collecting a great deal of domestic and overseas literatures,10actualitys and4insufficiencys on the studyof transportation structure are held by analyzing and studying synthetically, mostly research works and main research results was made as follows:1. On the evolvement and its law of transportation structure. First, the conception of transportation structure and its evolvement were elucidated, the classify and expression of transportation structure were studied. Dissipation structure character, selforganizing mechanism, common process and form of the evolvement of transportation system structure were researched by the use of the principle of system selforganizing and elseorganizing; the relationship between competition and collaboration for transportation modes each other was studied by using Logistic model; the main influence factors of the evolvement of passenger and goods transportation demand structure were analyzed and studied; the influence factors, main causations and general mechanism of the evolvement of transportation structure were researched; the influence of the progress of traffic science and technology to the evolvement of transportation structure were researched; the main influence factors&common laws of the evolvement of transportation structure, and its revelation for optimization of transportation structure were concluded by the use of induction and deductive method.Research result indicates:dependence process between competition and collaboration is the dynamic evolvement process of transportation structure, their translation is main promoting power each other; it is very importance role for traffic science and technology to the evolvement of transportation structure; there are at least6common laws of the evolvement of transportation structure and8revelations for optimization of transportation structure. These laws need be followed by optimization of transportation structure.2. On the optimization analysis of transportation structure based on supply and demand character, by the use of the principles of transportation economics, system science and自助theory of information entropy, many basic concepts (for example, transportation demand and supply etc.)were differentiated, the interrelations between these concepts were analysed quantitatively, the validity of forecasting of transportation demand and the basic principles of optimization of transportation structure were discussed; demand characters and basic elements of passenger and goods transportation were analyzed, demand costs were studied quantitatively, measuring models were founded respectively; the supply characters(namely technology and economy character)and applicable scopes of5transportation modes were analyzed respectively and compared quantitatively, the measuring models of main supply characters were founded respectively; it was primarily analyzed and studied that optimization of transportation structure was influenced by transportation supply and demand character and the homologous status between them; information entropy models of supply and demand structure of passenger and goods transportation were set up respectively, the appraising model and criterion of the adaptability between transportation supply and demand structure were founded based on structure information entropy; a cases was studied.Research result shows:there are at least8charactes and6basic elements of transportation demand; the optimization of transportation structure is gravely influenced by transportation supply and demand characters and the homologous status between them;6basic principles need be followed by optimization of transportation structure; the characters of transportation supply and demand structure are measured by making use of structure information entropy, entropy value of supply structure is needed to be consistent with entropy value of demand structure, changing trend or velocity of entropy functions are well consistent with each other; difference coefficient Cv(t) is relatively close to0, adaptability degree G(t) is close to1. these laws should be followed by optimization of transportation structure.3. On optimization of regional microcosmic-level transportation structure. First of all, district character of transportation structure was elucidated; by utilizing the theory of complex system and the principle of harmonization theory, harmonious character, relationship types and harmonious mechanism of transportation system structure were analyzed and studied; mechanism model and harmonious steps of the development of transportation system structure were brought forward; index models of development, harmonization and persistence of microcosmic-level transportation structure were mainly set up respectively; optimization appraising was studied.the research result indicates that transportation structure possesses regional character; there are4relationship types; the status of development, harmonization and persistence of microcosmic-level transportation structure are measured and appraised by the hereinbefore index models; the status of optimization of microcosmic-level transportation structure is also appraised by exceeding degree of dominant factor and matching degree between factors of transportation subsystem.4. On optimization of regional middle-level transportation structure. On the basis of4.3chapter, the index models of development, harmonization and persistence of middle-level transportation structure were educed respectively; middle-level transportation structure was forecasted, analysed and controlled by employing Markov chain model; the path model and two arithmetics of optimization of middle-level transportation structure were furnished based on economy cybernetics; on the appraising of the rationalization of transportation structure, the appraising indexs of qualitative harmonization and quantitative proportion between transportation modes were founded, the appraising modes of efficiency, benefit, and comparative preponderance of transportation structure optimization were weightly set up respectively by applying the theory of industrial structure optimization; the upgrading of transportation structure was appraised by similarity discriminant and distance discriminant; Finally, the passenger transportation structure in The Pearl River Delta Area was researched by demonstration, correlation decision-making analysis was made in order to validate the validity of the models and arithmetics of structure forecasting and path optimization.the research result indicates that the status of development, harmonization and persistence of middle-level transportation structure are measured and appraised by the hereinbefore index models; the structure and balance structure of future passenger transportation are forecasted and calculated respectively, and optimization analysis is made by Markov chain model; in order to achieve a certain perfect transportation structure, annual increaseing ratio of turnover gross of each transportation mode and least year number are calculated respectively by hereinbefore path optimization model when the increaseing ratio of turnover gross of transportation system is not less than a certain proportion; the degrees of harmonization, rationalization and upgrading of regional middle-level transportation structure are appraised by hereinbefore indexs of qualitative harmonization&quantitative proportion,3appraising modes and2discriminant respectively.5. On optimization of regional macroscopical-level transportation structure. On the basis of4.3and5.2chapter, the index models of development, harmonization and persistence of macroscopical-level transportation structure, and the index of harmonization and development of the whole transportation system structure were educed respectively; the analysis&appraising model and its arithmetic of the adaptability of passenger and goods transportation structure were set up and used to research the adaptability of transportation structure by employing grey relationship analytical (GRA) method; by the use of input-output analytical (IOA) method, the input-output character of optimization of macroscopical-level transportation structure and correlation decision-making was analyzed and researched, the ratio of optimum investment structure of transportation structure was sought based on maximizing the ratio s of final net income (or final production value) of macroscopical-level transportation structure, departure degree η and harmonization degree γ between the ratios of practical investment and optimum investment structure was educed;the model and arithmetic of optimization of macroscopical-level transportation structure were founded based on the concept of sustainable development; a series of appraising indexs and methods of adaptability, modality character and sustainable development of macroscopical-level transportation structure were provided respectively, thereinto, the appraising model and arithmetic of modality character of road network were emphatically educed based on fractal dimension of Fractal Geometry, modality character was appraised by the indexs of the covering degree and covering deepness of road network; the appraising model and arithmetic of sustainable development of transportation structure were Primarily founded based on degree of grey incidence and information entropy. Finally, the adaptability of passenger and goods transportation structure in The Pearl River Delta Area and the modality character of a regional road network were researched by demonstration, correlation decision-making analysis was made in order to validate the validity of the models and arithmetics of adaptability analysis and modality character appraising of transportation structure.the research result indicates that the status of development, harmonization and persistence of macroscopical-level transportation and the whole transportation system structure are measured and appraised by hereinbefore index models; the adaptability of regional transp-ortation structure is appraised by the model and arithmetic based on degree of grey incidence; the optimal direction and degree of practical investment structure adjusting of transportation industry are confirmed by the use of hereinbefore ratio of optimal investment structure, departure degree η and harmonious degree y, and used to provide decision-making basis for the optimization of investment structure of transportation industry; rational transportation structure under established condition is sought by using hereinbefore model based on the concept of sustainable developmen; the covering degree and covering deepness of road network are more science and more rationalization than its density index, thus ought to be made the most of, covering degree D(r))1.661and its covering deepness r are used to judge whether covering modality structure of regional road network is rationalization, and its function is perfect.The intention of hereinbefore analysis and research is to provide new thinking and method in order to optimize the structure of regional transportation.更多还原