【作者】 陈思；

【导师】 何华武； 彭其渊；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 物流规划方法研究是影响整个区域物流系统运作的基础,在产业多样化的今天物流需求更加多样化、复杂化,在区域物流规划的过程中针对区域物流需求特点进行区域物流分析、制定区域物流规划方案,不仅可以增强区域物流规划的针对性,提升方案的有效性,也可以有效地促进区域内重点产业的发展,同时有效降低区域物流规划的成本。区域物流规划涉及到物流需求量的预测、物流节点的选址、物流服务网络以及交通网络的规划以及对于区域物流规划方案的评价等内容,这对区域物流规划具有重要的指导意义。在现实中物流需求的多样性是广泛的,它不仅影响到区域物流系统的建设和运作同时还影响到区域内多种产业的发展,如何将复杂的物流需求多样性具体化,利用现有的物流规划方法进行优化,以实现对于具体区域的物流分析和规划,使之既符合不同区域的具体情况对现实区域物流规划提供决策支持,同时还对物流学科相关理论进行补充,是物流规划领域中具有现实意义的课题。其研究成果对物流需求的多样性进行了分析,它不仅涉及物流预测、物流规划以及物流评价的关键内容,又为不同区域的物流系统规划提供了理论基础,具有研究的现实性和必要性。本文在现有研究的基础上,针对物流需求的多样性给出了系统的定义；在对物流量需求量的定义以及测算方法分析的基础上建立了物流需求量转换模型；并且针对物流需求的多样性建立物流需求预测模型、物流节点选址模型以及物流网络规划模型,同时建立了针对物流需求的物流评价指标体系；并结合四川省实际数据进行了算例分析。主要研究工作内容为：1.首先在对物流需求多样性的主要特征、表现形式以及层次结构分析的基础上,对物流需求多样性的定义进行了界定。同时深入研究了物流需求多样性对于物流需求量的影响,建立了通过不同的物流需求主体、物流活动以及物流服务供应商的共同影响下的物流需求量的作用机制。2.为了定量分析区域内的物流需求量,建立了物流需求量转换模型,将运输、仓储、配送等物流系统各阶段作业量转化为统一的物流货运量来体现。3.为了更为精确的预测区域内物流需求量,将区域内的物流需求按照不同的产业的情况进行分别预测而后进行综合,从而获得区域内总体的物流需求总量。通过对农业产业、工业产业、商业以及高新技术产业四大产业的分析,将区域物流需求按照四大产业的特点进行了分类,建立了基于四大产业的物流需求预测模型,并且以四川省实际数据为基础利用支持向量机方法对四川省物流需求量进行了算例分析。4.从区域内不同产业的特点出发,根据物流需求多样性对于区域物流节点选址的影响,以及不同产业对于物流节点选址的具体要求,建立了基于TOPSIS方法以及整数混合规划模型的物流节点选址模型,并且以四川省实际数据为基础针对以上模型进行了算例分析,证明了模型的有效性。5.按照将区域物流网络规划问题划分为区域设施布局、区域交通网络两部分的思路,重点根据不同产业的物流需求特点,建立了基于多产业的交通运输网络模型,并通过算例证明了模型的合理性和实用性。6.根据多产业结构对区域物流规划的影响情况,以及以物流需求的多样性为先导的区域物流规划评价的需要,对影响区域物流规划方案的指标进行了层次分析,并建立基于物流需求多样性下的区域物流规划评价指标体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 The method research of logistics planning is the basic part which will influence the whole operation of regional logistics system. In the diversity industry environment, the logistics demand becomes more and more different and complicated. In the process of regional logistics planning logistics analysis which focus on the demand features of regional logistics demand does not only can strengthen the purposefulness of logistics planning, improve the result of logistics plan and also can accelerate the development of the important industry. Logistics demand prediction, logistics hubs location, logistics service and transportation network planning and logistics planning evaluation are all include in the area of regional logistics planning. In the reality world the diversity feature of logistics demand is comprehensive, it not only influence the construction and operation of regional logistics system, and also influence the development of all the industries. The realistic meaning of this project is how to model the diversity of logistics demand and how to make use of the logistics planning method to optimize the regional logistics system. The research results can be applied to analyze the diversity features of logistics demand and can be used to analyze the key problems of logistics prediction, logistics planning and logistics evaluation. All the research is very close to the reality and necessary.In this paper the diversity feature of logistics demand has been analyzed and the definition has been given. And Logistics demand transferring model, logistics demand prediction models, logistics hubs location models and logistics network models have been built and the most of the models have been analyzed with real data of Sichuan province.The main works of this research:1. First the main features, the forms of expression and the structures of logistics demand have been analyzed. At the same time, a deep research on the logistics demand diversity for the influence of the logistics demand, which describes the mechanism of action when the different logistics demand subjects, different logistics actions and different logistics service suppliers influence the logistics demand.2. In order to analyze the regional logistics demand quantitatively, the logistics demand transferring model will integrate the quantity of all parts of the process of logistics system such as transportation, storage, distribution and etc.3. The regional logistics demand is predicted by models with different industries, and the prediction result is achieved by summing up all the logistics demand of all industries. Then I can get a much more accurate result. I analyze the logistics demand features based on four basic industries, they are agricultural industry, industry, business, high technology industry. And I verify the model by the real data of Sichuan Province.4. The logistics hubs location models are built on the analysis of the features of different industries in an area. In the mean time I build the logistics hubs location models based on the method of TOPSIS and mixed integer programming model with considering the different features of different industry. And I verify the models by the real data of Sichuan Province.5. The problem of regional logistics network planning is divided into three parts:the problem of regional facility layout; logistics information network and regional transportation network. The point is how to build the transportation network with multi-industries following the regional logistics demand features. And the models are proved rationality and practical by example.6. The influence factors of multi-industries to the regional logistics planning are discussed. The features of objective, significance and the principle of regional logistics planning evaluation are also discussed based on the diversity logistics demand. And finally an indicator system for evaluating is built based on the analysis of the logistics demand features of multi-industries.更多还原