【作者】 闫英；

【导师】 叶怀珍；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 物流工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 随着全球经济发展和市场竞争的加剧,资金约束成为供应链企业较为普遍存在的问题,尤其在发展中国家。企业发展过程中,存货占用大量资金加剧了流动资金不足的问题。利用物流企业的监管职能、应用金融工具,可以盘活库存、在途库存及应收账款所占资金,提高企业资本的利用率。物流金融在这样的背景下应运而生,对于物流企业来说此业务可增强竞争力；对于供应链中的节点企业来说,加快了资金的流动速度,增加了效益；对于商业银行来说,降低了风险；对于整个供应链来说,则整合了供应链中的资金资源,提升了供应链的效率和效益,增加了供应链各方的竞争力。供应链环境下物流金融业务的持续稳定对供应链的稳定运作、中小企业的稳定生产经营、银行利润的稳步增长、物流企业增值业务扩展起到了决定性的作用。由于市场存在诸多不确定因素,且物流金融业务的三个主体往往以自身利益最大化为目标,因此在物流金融业务的运作中可能因为信息不对称、恶意欺诈、相关企业经营状况恶化等因素导致物流金融的业务的终止。本文以此为切入点,围绕以下五个问题展开研究：(1)在对国内外相关文献进行分析总结的基础上,系统地回顾了物流金融的相关研究成果,分析融资企业存货质押后利润的增量与其支付的融资费用之间的关系,建立了第三方物流企业存货质押融资服务的定价模型,给出了服务价格的区间范围；在此基础上,以需求量受物流融资服务价格影响的报童模型为研究对象,在已知价格分布信息的条件下,由需求函数得出需求量的概率密度函数,从而将报童问题中对于需求的控制转化为对于产品价格的控制,得到物流金融最优的服务定价模型。(2)对银行物流金融业务定价的基础及模式、银行物流金融业务所面临的风险、风险特征进行分析,总结了银行物流金融风险管理的对策。(3)由于市场的不确定性,企业利润难以准确量化评价。利用D-S证据理论对融资企业存货质押融资后的利润进行定量分析和判断,建立模型并进行求解及仿真。(4)从资金需求企业利润最大化的角度出发,给出了延期支付和存货质押两种业务下的企业利润模型,并基于D-S证据理论建立了不确定条件下这两种业务的决策模型。(5)对物流金融业务各个主体所面临的风险进行识别和归类,以“物流金融业务终止”为顶事件、各种具体的风险要素为底事件建立了故障树,给出了顶事件失效概率和重要度的计算方法,从而能够对物流金融融资业务终止的概率进行定量、直观的分析,并找出对物流金融业务运作影响最大因素。当影响因素的发生概率无法准确测度、为区间概率时,利用区间理论对物流金融业务终止的故障树进行了区间分析,得出顶事件的发生概率区间值。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the economic development and market competition in the global, fund shortage becomes a more and more serious problem to supply chain enterprise, especially in developing countries. In the process of producing and selling, a lot of funds are occupied by stocks, which make the problem of fund shortage be more serious for enterprise. With the supervision function of logistics enterprise and financial tools, funds occupied by stocks and receivables can be revitalized, thereby enhance the utilization ratio of the funds. In this context, logistics finance arises at the historic moment. To logistics enterprise, logistics finance business can enhance its competitive power. To supply chain members, this business can quicken up the flow rate of its capital. To the whole supply chain, by the business, funds are integrated, efficiency and benefit of supply chain is increased, and competitive power of all parties in the supply chain is improved.In the circumstance of supply chain, the stability of logistics financial business is a decisive factor for the stable operation of supply chain, stable production and management of small-and medium-size enterprise, stable enhancement of bank profit, and expansion of value-added business for logistics enterprise. As there are variety of uncertain factors in market, and the three main bodies in logistics finance business always make their own profit maximization as the goal, so logistics finance business may terminate because of information asymmetry, malicious fraud, business conditions of related enterprises deteriorating, and other reasons. In the view of this problem, the contributions of this paper include the following aspects:(1) Related research results on logistics finance are investigated, and the relationship between incremental profit of financing enterprise and financing service charge for inventory impawn financing service is analyzed. Pricing model of3PL in inventory impawn financing business is built, and the range of service price is determined by this model. Further, based on newsboy model, the problem of demand controlling can be translated to price controlling by calculating PDF (Probability Distribution Function) of demand with PDF of price and demand function.(2) In the point of bank, basis and models of logistics finance business pricing, and risks and their characteristics in logistics finance business are analyzed. The countermeasures of logistics finance risk management for bank are summarized.(3) Because of uncertainties in market, it is difficult to make a quantitative evaluation for enterprise profit. To solve this problem, D-S evidence theory is used as a quantitative method to evaluate enterprise profit after inventory impawn financing.(4) Enterprise profit models under the businesses of inventory impawn financing and delayed payments are derived in the view of maximizing enterprise profit. To give a reasonable selection between the two businesses in uncertain conditions, a decision model is proposed based on D-S evidence theory.(5) Risks of the three main bodies in logistics business are indentified and classified. Make "logistics finance business terminating" as the top event, related risks as the bottom events, the fault tree is constructed. For the sake of giving a quantitative analysis to the probability of logistics finance business terminating, and finding the most important factors, the methods of calculating the top event failure probability and importance are proposed. In the situation that probability of risks can not be described with accuracy, interval analysis is used in the fault tree analysis of logistics financing business terminating, and with which interval probability of top event if derived.更多还原