【作者】 李建民；

【导师】 郑中义；

【作者基本信息】 大连海事大学 ， 交通信息工程及控制， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 海上大宗危化品货物运输是国民经济发展的基础和有力保障。受到危化品货物理化属性、海运环境复杂性等因素的影响,海上危化品运输系统表现出明显的开放性、动态性、不确定性、不可逆性和突变性特点。虽然近几十年来,国内外学者对海上危化品运输系统安全予以了充分关注,提出各种方案增进运输安全,但是方案多具有一定的局限性和片面性。针对海上危化品运输系统的上述特点,基于耗散理论和实船工作经验,提出从系统能量和熵两个方面入手促进系统安全。针对危化品货物理化属性对系统安全的影响,首先从“人-机-环境”系统工程学出发研究了海上危化品运输系统构成,提出了以“人”、“船”、“环境”、“货物”和“管理”等五个安全因素构建的危化品运输系统模型。在剖析运输系统特点的基础上,提出以耗散理论为基础开展安全研究。考虑到海上危化品运输系统具有动态性、开放性特点,以及物理学中有关能量的定义,提出运输系统广义“安全能量”概念,并以“安全能量”为研究标的度量系统可靠性。为此,首先研究了一般系统能量的构成、能量的守恒与转化,研究了海上危化品运输系统势能的耗散,构建了海上危化品运输系统势能函数模型,最后提出从安全保障技术和安全管理两方面入手提高系统可靠性、促进系统安全。针对运输系统的不确定性,研究了熵与系统稳定性的关系以及海上危化品运输系统耗散机理,提出了危化品运输系统安全熵概念,构建了系统安全熵评价模型,最后提出综合考虑系统可靠性(能量)和稳定性(安全熵)评价系统安全。在此基础上,进一步研究了最小风险路径原理,提出基于不确定条件的安全路径选择方法,完成了危化品运输系统安全状态评价研究。在上述系统能量、熵及最小风险路径研究基础上,从安全保障技术与安全管理两方面研究了促进运输安全的具体方法,包括规避有害气体的危化品船舶机动航法模型、博弈论在危化品运输系统安全管理中的应用等。以能量和熵为研究标的,以系统论、非线性理论、耗散理论为基础开展海上危化品运输系统安全评价研究,以烟羽模型、博弈论为理论基础开展海上危化品运输系统安全保障与管理技术研究,既是对复杂、不确定系统开展可靠性与稳定性研究的探索,更是对海上交通工程领域安全评价与保障技术的完善。更多还原

【Abstract】 Maritime Dangerous Chemical Transportation System lays a solid foundation for and guarantees the development of national economy. Characteristics of maritime transport of dangerous chemicals include significant openness, dynamics, uncertainty, irreversibility and catastrophy owing to the impacts of physical and chemical properties of dangerous chemicals and complex marine environment as well. Even though domestic and abroad scholars have been giving great concerns to the maritime safety of dangerous chemicals in recent decades, and various solutions for improving transport safety have been proposed, most of those proposals have certain limitations and one-sidedness. In light of the characteristics of maritime transportation of dangerous chemicals, the transporting safety is researched from the system energy and entropy based on dissipative theory, as well as working experience of the author obtained onboard.The constitution of MDCTS is first studied with Man-Machine-Environment System Engineering Theory in accordance with the impact of physical and chemical properties of the dangerous chemicals. Then the transporting model is presented, which consists of five safety elements, namely "Human","Ship","Environment","Cargo" and "Management". Dissipative Theory is applied to the study of safety based on the analysis of characteristics of the transport system.Considering the dynamics and openness characteristics of maritime transportation of dangerous chemicals and the definition of energy in physics, the concept of systematic "energy" is proposed and is employed as the researching target for evaluating the systematic reliability. In this dissertation, the general constitution of system energy, energy conservation and conversion, the potential energy dissipation in maritime transportation of dangerous chemicals are studied, and potential-energy function model is established. Hence, the two-pronged approaches of technology and management can be applied to enhance system reliability and to improve system safety.In allusion to the uncertainty of transportation for dangerous chemicals, the relation between entropy and stability is expounded, as well as the dissipation mechanism of the marine transportation, defining "entropy of MDCTS", establishing the evaluation model for entropy of system sasety. The transportation safety should be evaluated comprehensively taking into consideration of the system reliability (energy) and stability (safety entropy). In addition to the abovementioned, the inquiry into the principle of minimum risk path is furthered, and safety path selection methods upon uncertain conditions are proposed, drawing a conclusion to transportation safety evaluation for the dangerous chemicals.Upon the research and study on system energy, entropy and minimum risk path, the dissertation further looks into specific ways to promote transportation safety from safeguards technique and safety management perspectives, which includes the modle of flexible maneuvering in response to evaporation of dangerous chemicals, game theory in transportation safety management of dangerous chemicals etc.The system theory, nonlinear theory and dissipative theory constitute the theoretical basis as the energy and entropy being the research target to evaluate system safety of maritime transportation for dangerous chemicals. The study on maritime transport system safety of dangerous chemicals and management technology with the application of plume models and game theory not only explores the reliability and stability of the complex and uncertain system, but also enhances the safety evaluation and improves the guarantee technology in the filed of maritime traffic engineering.更多还原