【作者】 户艳领；

【导师】 王根厚；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学（北京） ， 资源管理工程， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 土地综合承载力研究是合理编制国土开发规划和城市空间开发格局的重要前提和参考依据，然而在承载力研究领域，大部分研究仅关注土地对粮食和人口的承载，未能反映其他如经济规模、生态环境、城市建设、居民生活等承载对象的承载状况及其对综合承载力的影响，难以客观描述不同区域的综合承载水平。随着城镇化、工业化的发展，耕地减少、水资源短缺、环境污染等问题不断加重，土地的综合承载状况愈发严峻，必须抓紧摸清区域承载状况，找出承载短板加以解决，超出任何一方面的土地承载极限，都会成为可持续发展的桎梏。结合可持续发展、国土承载安全和区域协调等相关理论，本文首先在概念和评价方法上力争实现对承载力研究的创新。依据承载对象不同将综合承载力划分为经济规模承载、建设规模承载、生产规模承载、资源环境承载、人口规模承载、基础生活设施承载六大承载子系统。进一步梳理了承载力研究的相关计量方法，筛选综合承载力评价指标体系，构建了承载力评价和承载短板分析实证模型。本文构建大容量面板数据、时间数据进行实证分析取得的主要结论如下：（1）通过因子模型的单因子和多因子分析，纵向上摸清了河北省综合承载力水平，横向上评价了各子承载系统的承载优劣状况，指出研究区域总体土地综合承载力水平不高，在全国排在中后位置，各承载系统中，农业生产和建设承载具有一定优势，但资源和环境承载处于劣势，是承载的短板，必须重点加以整治。（2）针对因子分析得到的研究区域承载短板，选取指标并建立时间序列数据矩阵，应用熵值模型深入分析承载短板的历年发展演变趋势，在众多承载制约因素中确定了各指标的影响程度，找到主要问题。虽然资源环境承载总指数十年来不断改善，但与全国其他省市相比仍然形式严峻。（3）土地的综合承载内容丰富，各承载子系统之间存在复杂的相关关系，并且区域间各子承载系统发展不均衡，可以协调各区域的承载优势和劣势，从而实现整体承载力提高。最后本文以处于劣势的资源环境承载为突破口，从各子承载系统的问题与发展水平入手，在提高承载主体的供给水平和质量、优化人口布局和提升人口承载力、提高经济、资源环境承载力、加强承载力区域协作等几个方面，探索了确保综合承载力安全的具体思路与对策，力争实现实证分析向应用的转化。更多还原

【Abstract】 Research of the land comprehensive carrying capacity is the important reference tothe reasonable land development planning and the urban space development pattern.However, in the field of the research, most of the research focuses on the land of grainand the population carrying, and fails to reflect the other carrying conditions, such aseconomies of scale, the ecological environment, urban construction, residents live andtheir effect on the carrying capacity of composite. It is difficult to objectively describethe comprehensive carrying level of different areas. With the development ofurbanization and industrialization, the problems, such as arable land decrease, watershortage and environmental pollution are getting worse. Land comprehensive carryingcondition is getting worse. We must know the carrying conditions of the area as soonas possible and find out the carrying shortcomings and resolve. It will become theshackles of sustainable development beyond any land carrying limit.Combined sustainable development, land carrying security and the regionalcoordination and other related theories, this paper firstly realizes the innovation inresearch on the carrying capacity on the concept and evaluation method. According to thedifferent carrying objects, the article divides comprehensive carrying capacity into sixcarrying subsystem, including economic scale carrying, construction scale carrying,production scale carrying, resources and environment carrying, population scale carryingand living facilities conditions carrying. The article sorts out the relevant measurementmethods of the study on carrying capacity and constructs the evaluation index system ofcomprehensive carrying capacity and establishes the empirical model of carryingcapacity evaluation and the carrying short analysis.This paper builds the large panel data and time data for the empirical analysis. Themain conclusions are as follows:(1) Through the single factor and multiple factoranalysis, vertically, the paper finds out the comprehensive carrying capacity level inHebei Province. On the transverse, the article evaluates the carrying quality status ofeach carrying subsystem. Points out that land comprehensive carrying capacity level of the study areas is not high and rows after the position in the country. In each of thecarrying systems, the agricultural production and construction carrying has a certainadvantages, but the resource and environment carrying are at a disadvantage, which iscarrying shortcomings. We must focus on improvement.(2) Aiming at the regionalcarrying shortcomings of factor analysis, the article selects index and establish the timeseries data matrix and applies entropy model to analyze historical development trend ofcarrying shortcomings, and determines the influence degree of each index in manycarrying restricting factors and finds the main problem.Though the index of resourcesenvironment carrying for ten years has improved continuously, but the situation is stillgrim when compared with other provinces.(3) The content of land comprehensivecarrying is rich. There is complex relationship between various carrying subsystem.Carrying system of regional development is not balanced. We can coordinate the carryingadvantages and disadvantages of each area so as to realize the overall increase.Finally based on the disadvantage of resources and environment carrying as thebreakthrough point, from the problems and the development level of the carryingsubsystem, the paper explores the concrete ideas and countermeasures to ensure thesafety of comprehensive carrying capacity in improving the supply level and quality ofthe main carrying body, optimizing population layout and promoting population carryingcapacity, improving the economic and resource environmental carrying capacity,strengthening regional cooperation of carrying capacity, Through these efforts the paperstrives to realize the transformation of the empirical analysis to the application.更多还原