【作者】 钱茹；

【导师】 付梅臣；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学（北京） ， 土地资源管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 随着中国经济的进步和社会的发展，房地产市场发展迅速，竞争日益激烈。在房地产开发活动中，前期策划是房地产开发和经营活动的基础，房地产前期策划方案将在很大程度上影响到房产投资收益。本文以大量房地产开发和前期策划经验和数据作为分析依据，采用多元回归分析方法对相关数据的时间序列以及空间特征进行了数理统计分析，并用GIS空间统计分析方法，建立基于GIS的房地产前期策划模型，使得GIS的应用领域得到了更大范围的扩充。本论文研究的内容为：（1）首先探讨了房地产前期策划的主要内容。在此基础上，提出区域房地产策划的研究思路、方法及框架。以GIS为操作平台，研究房地产前期策划相关数据并进行分析处理，提出了基于GIS空间分析为基础的区域房地产项目策划模型。并对此模型展开综合分析和评价，证明模型具有实用性和可信度。（2）建立了区域房地产前期策划的相关理论模型。在此基础上开展了空间统计分析，合理选择了样本以及建模变量，同时还包括变量的集中化和均衡度分析。将区域经济统计分析模型与GIS相结合，利用GIS空间分析功能、交互功能与可视化功能，实现区域房地产经济分布利用模型。从多角度进行分析，为区域房地产经济的统计分析及区域房地产投资决策提供了有效的方法。（3）进行了房地产选定策划区域区划研究。根据策划空间的区划、空间统计方法、GIS选址方法分析出的结果以及模型选取等一系列研究，从而选取可策划空间最大的常州清水湾项目作为策划与模拟案例进行分析研究。依托GIS的空间分析和处理能力，对宏观环境、项目情况调查分析，最后通过科学的预测方法得出结论：项目所处地理环境位置内房地产需求有上升趋势、该项目具有获利空间。（4）提出基于Web Services的前期策划辅助系统平台的架构。以微软公司的MicrosoftVisualStudio2010软件作为开发工具，采用WebGIS体系结构、Web Services模型和协议栈（Protocol Stack）等数据技术，结合常州市案例，将信息共享、发布等功能在ArcGISServer GIS应用的平台上得到了充分实现。同时利用ArcGIS for Desktop软件实现了空间数据采集和处理、数据存储、空间统计分析等功能，运用C#语言进行ArcGIS Engine9.3二次开发组件库的开发和设计，最终实现了房地产信息的实时对外动态发布与共享。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the advancement of China’s economic and social development, the real estate markethas been developing rapidly, the competition has become increasingly fierce.At the early stage ofthe real estate development activities, the planning is the basis of real estate development andbusiness activities, real estate prophase planning scheme will largely affect the real estateinvestment returns.Based on a large number of real estate development and preliminary planningexperience and data analysis as the basis, using the method of multiple regression analysis on therelated data of time sequence and spatial characteristic has carried on the analysis ofmathematical statistics, and the GIS space statistical method to establish model of real estateprophase planning based on GIS, the application field of GIS is a far wider range ofexpansion.The research contents of this thesis is:1．The main content of the real estate prophase planning is discussed in the first place.On thisbasis, put forward the train of thought for studying the regional real estate planning, method andframework.Based on GIS platform operation, real estate prophase planning related data analysisand processing, was proposed based on the GIS spatial analysis based on the regional real estateproject planning model.And a comprehensive analysis and evaluation model and prove model ispractical and credibility.2．On the relevant theories of regional real estate prophase planning model is established.On thebasis of conducting the spatial statistical analysis, selecting the sample variables, and modelingalso includes the centralization of the variables and equilibrium analysis.Combining the regionaleconomic statistical analysis model and GIS, using the GIS spatial analysis, interaction andvisualization functions, using regional real estate economic distribution model.Analyzed fromvarious angles, for statistical analysis of regional real estate economy and regional real estateinvestment decision-making provides a effective method.3．For the study of real estate area planning division.According to the planning space division,spatial statistical methods, the location of the GIS methods to analyze the results and the modelselection and a series of research, selection and planning space largest changzhou Qingshuiwanproject planning and simulation case study is analyzed.Based on the GIS spatial analysis andprocessing ability, investigation and analysis of macro environment, project, at last, throughscientific prediction methods conclude that project locates the geographical position in real estatedemand is rising, this project has the profit space.4.Put forward the prophase planning aided system based on Web Services platformarchitecture.To Microsoft’s MicrosoftVisualStudio2010software as a development tool, using WebGIS architecture, Web Services model and Protocol Stack (Protocol Stack) data such astechnology, combined with changzhou case, the information sharing, release, and other functionson the platform of ArcGIS Server GIS application got fully realized.At the same time usingArcGIS for Desktop software to realize the spatial data acquisition and processing, data storage,spatial statistical analysis, and other functions, using c#language ArcGIS Engine9.3secondarydevelopment component library development and design, finally achieved real-time dynamic toforeign real estate information publishing and sharing.更多还原