货币权力研究

【作者】 施箐；

【导师】 杨力；

【作者基本信息】 上海外国语大学 ， 国际关系， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 权力是社会科学中的基本概念。在人类历史发展的长河中，虽然权力的本质没有发生变化，但权力的具体表现形式会随着时间和空间的变化而不断发生相应的动态变化。二十世纪后半叶，金融全球化进程的推进赋予了权力极强的金融化特征，货币权力随之成为了当今世界体系中最具代表性的权力之一。本文在前人研究的基础上，依据货币权力的涵义、取得、运行、影响、评估这一分析逻辑，试图较为全面地把握货币权力的理论和实践。本文的主体部分共分为五章，主要内容如下所示：第一章讨论货币权力的涵义。本文认为，货币权力是发行主要国际货币的大国（或国家联盟）具有的影响力，它对内表现为一国能够按照自身的意愿行事不受其他国家干扰的能力，对外表现为能够按照自身的意愿影响其他国家，使其他国家的行为符合这一大国（或国家联盟）预期的能力。第二章讨论货币权力的取得、运行和影响。本文认为，强大的经济实力、发达的金融市场和稳固的区域基础构成了货币权力形成的基础。货币国际化和权力制度化是货币权力的实现途径。操纵货币使用和操纵货币价值是一国行使货币权力的主要机制，此外一国还可通过掌控制定规则的话语权来影响相关货币制度的设计，通过掌控经济理论的话语权来影响相关制度的选择。在国际货币关系中处于强势的一方主要依靠国际货币体系制度设计上的不对称优势对处于弱势的一方形成影响力，从而获得相应的收益。第三章讨论货币权力的评估。本文采用两种方法对货币权力进行评估。一为定性评估，即以科恩提出的货币权力分析框架为基础，从自主性和影响力两个维度对国际金本位制下的英国、布雷顿森林体系和牙买加体系下的美国拥有的货币权力进行评估；二为定量评估，以向量自回归模型的方差分析为技术手段对浮动汇率制下各主要国际货币发行国拥有的货币权力进行评估。第四章讨论货币权力的典型——美元霸权。本章依据第二章建立的分析框架，以美元霸权的确立和延续过程为序，依次分析美国的货币权力形成的基础、实现途径、运行机制、主要影响以及面临的挑战。第五章讨论中国的应对策略。中国长期受到美国货币权力的剥削。由于中国对美国的货币与金融依存度要远大于美国对中国的依存度，美国可以运用其货币权力，攫取中国的财富，向中国分摊美元霸权的成本。现阶段中国应采取措施从夯实货币权力基础、推进人民币国际化和参与国际制度建设三方面取得和提升货币权力，在可能的范围内最大限度地保护中国的国家利益。更多还原

【Abstract】 Power is a fundemantal concept in social science. In human history, the essence ofpower remains unchanged, but the manifestation of power has been changing alongwith time and space. In the second half of the twentieth century, the financialglobalization made power characteristic of finance. As a result, monetary power hasstood out as one of the most representative forms of power in the current worldsystem. Based on the previous research, the dissertation focuses on the theory andpractice of monetary power in its definition, acquisition, mechanisms, influences, andevaluation.The body of the dissertation is divided into five chapters. The contents of each chapterare listed as follows:The first chapter defines the concept of monetary power. A state (or a union of states)which issues a major international currency possesses monetary power. Monetarypower has two dimensions. One is a state’s ability to exercise its own policyindependence; the other is a state’s ability to influence the policy of other states.The second chapter discusses the acquisition, mechanisms and influences of monetarypower. Strong economy, mature financial markets, and solid regional foundations arethe foundations of monetary power. Currency internationalization and powerinstitutionalization are the ways to acquire monetary power. A state exercises itsmonetary power by manipulating currency use and value. Having the power toinfluence rulemaking helps a state influence the formation of monetary institutions.Having the power to influence economic theories helps a state influence the choice ofinstitutions. The stronger one in a monetary relationship influences the weaker oneand gets benefits from the weaker one mainly by taking advantage of the asymmetricstrengths in the international monetary system. The third chapter discusses the evaluation of monetary power. The dissertationevaluates monetary power both qualitatively and quantitatively. The qualitativeevaluation is based on the two dimensions of monetary power defined by Cohen. Themonetary power of the U.K. under the Gold Standard system, and the U.S. under theBretton Woods system and Jamaica monetary system are evaluated from thedimensions of autonomy and influence. The quantitative evaluation is based o n thevariance analysis in a vector autoregression model. The monetary power ofmajor-international-currency issuers under the floating exchange rate regime areevaluated quantitatively.The fourth chapter discusses a typical example of monetary power, the dollarhegemony. The monetary power of the U.S. is analyzed according to the frameworkdeveloped in the second chapter, i.e. its foundations, acquisition, mechanisms,influences and challenges.The fifth chapter discusses suggestions for China. China has been suffering from theexploitation of the U.S. monetary power, because China depends more heavily on thecurrency and finance of the U.S. than the U.S. on China. The U.S. exercises themonetary power over China, taking wealth out of China and deflecting the costs ofhegemony to China. In order to protect its national interest, China should take activemeasures to acquire and improve its monetary power by consolidating the foundationsof monetary power, promoting the RMB internationalization and playing an activepart in designing international institutions.更多还原