历史与现实：俄罗斯东进战略研究

【作者】 卢昌鸿；

【导师】 汪宁；

【作者基本信息】 上海外国语大学 ， 国际关系， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 俄罗斯占有广袤的西伯利亚已有四个世纪，沙俄占领中亚至苏联解体也愈一个世纪。2012年，普京当选为俄总统后推出开发东部、融入亚太经济的“战略东进”计划。历史上俄国的东进都取得了相对成功，这其中有何经验和规律可寻，现今俄罗斯东进的动因又是什么，今天俄罗斯东进所面临的内外部环境与以前有什么不同，未来发展的突破口在哪里，围绕这些问题本文将进行分析和论述。提起沙俄向外扩张，人们很自然想到占有大片领土，很容易忽略一点：沙俄对新占领土地的开发和治理。历史上沙俄的东进，占有领土仅是第一步，随后会在新占领土地上建立城镇、修路筑桥、发展工农业和进行内外贸易等。事实上，包括中国东北中东铁路沿线的广大地区早期的开发和城市布局，沙俄政府发挥了关键性的作用。由于气候、自然条件、文化传统、政治经济体制等多种因素的限制，我们不能简单地把俄罗斯的东部开发与美国的西进运动相比较。对东部地区的开发一直贯穿了俄罗斯的近代历史，尽管其效果不尽人意。若把今天的俄东部地区和四百年前作一个对比，就不难想象俄罗斯在东部开发方面所付出的努力。不同历史时期，俄罗斯东进的战略目标和动因各有不同：近代早期，沙俄的东进主要表现为领土扩张，并对新占领土地进行开发和治理，是出于生存和安全需要；二十世纪早期，沙俄和苏联在远东地区抢占战略要地，是为了国家的强大和确立大国地位；苏联时期对西伯利亚进行开发和巩固东部边境安全，旨在加速发展以增强国力，同美国及西方国家争霸；现阶段的东进，目标是振兴东部地区、融入亚洲经济，以提高国家综合实力，推动国家复兴。论文把俄罗斯东进的历史和现实结合起来，作一个梳理，试图解开这样的疑问：资源如此丰富的地区，经济发展为何一直落后于西部及世界其他地区？在总结过往经验的基础上，结合对现实环境的分析，对俄东部地区的发展前景作出理性的预期。更多还原

【Abstract】 Russia has occupied the vast Siberia over four centuries, and it’s also over acentury from Russia’s occupation Central Asia to the disintegration of USSR. In2012Vladimir Putin was re-elected president of Russia and the government launched“strategic eastward shift” program which focused on developing the eastern regionand promoting the integration into Asia-Pacific economies. Russia’s previouseastward shifts have all achieved relative success. Are there any experience and rulesto be found? What is the motivation for the current Russia’s eastward shift? Is thereany difference between the internal and external environments of eastward shift whichRussia faces and that of the past? Where is the breakthrough of future development ofRussia’s eastern region? The paper will focus on the analyses and discussions of theseissues.When we talk about Russia’s expansion, it’s natural for us to think of Russia’spossession of a large territory and easy to overlook one fact: Russia’s efforts on thedevelopment and governance of the newly occupied land. Occupation new territorywas only the first step of Russia’s eastward expansion in history, which alwaysfollowed by establishing towns and cities, constructing roads and bridges, developingagriculture and industry, and promoting the development of internal and external trade,etc.. In fact, Russia’s government played a key role in the early development andurban layout of a wide area including the area along Mid-East Railway of NortheastChina. Due to the limitation of a variety of factors including climate, naturalconditions, cultural traditions, political and economic systems, etc., we can not simplycompare the eastern region development of Russia with the U.S. Westward Movement.Despite the unsatisfactory results, development of the eastern region has beenconducting throughout the modern history of Russia. It’s no difficult to imagine whatefforts Russia has devoted to the eastern region development if we compare thecurrent Siberia with that of four hundred years ago.In different historical periods, Russia’s eastward shifts have different strategicobjectives and motivations: In the early days of modern history, the main content of Russia’s eastward shift was territory expansion and developing and governing thenewly occupied land, which was out of survival and security needs. During the early20thcentury, Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union seized strategic places in the FarEast, which aimed to establish a strong country and great power’s status. The SovietUnion government developed Siberia and consolidated the eastern border security,which aimed to accelerate development and enhance the country’s strength, andstruggle for hegemony with the United States and Western countries. Nowadays,Russia’s eastward shift refers to revitalizing the eastern region and integrating intoAsia’s economies, so as to enhance the comprehensive strength and promote nationalrejuvenation. This paper combines history and reality of Russia’s eastward shifts andintends to sort out the facts, trying to explore the doubt: Why the eastern region’seconomic development level has been lagging behind the western region and the restof the world while the resources there are so rich? The paper attempts to make rationalexpectations on the development prospects of Russia’s eastern region on the basis ofsummarizing the experiences and combining with the analyses of the realisticenvironment.更多还原