【作者】 杨毅；

【导师】 赵国浩；

【作者基本信息】 山西财经大学 ， 统计学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第四次评估报告显示，人类活动的净效应(+1.6[+0.6至+2.4]W/m2)是气候变暖的重要原因，其作用大于太阳辐照度的变化所产生小幅的变暖效应。国际社会对此已经达成共识，提出通过稳定温室气体排放来防止全球气候变暖，并共同致力于温室气体减排的气候保护工作。中国作为世界第一大煤炭消费国，最大二氧化硫、二氧化碳排放国和第二大能源消费国和受气候变化影响较大的国家，在应对气候变化和进行生态环境治理过程中面临着复杂的政治博弈和政策选择。近年来，随着中国经济社会工业化、城镇化的不断推进，能源需求持续增长，能源工业已经成为温室气体排放的重点领域。根据《中华人民共和国气候变化第二次国家信息通报》，2005年中国能源活动的二氧化碳排放量为54.04亿吨，全部来源于化石燃料燃烧。其中能源生产和加工转换部门排放二氧化碳24.08亿吨，占44.55%,其绝对排放量和排放比重均为各部门之首，且比1994年又进一步显著上升。根据本文对2006-2011年中国能源工业二氧化碳排放量的测算，能源工业在全社会温室气体总量中的排放份额由2006年的45.03%缓慢上升至2011年的48.74%，其高碳资源禀赋与低碳发展要求的内在矛盾持续突显。基于上述研究背景，本文认为能源工业投资对于推动中国能源工业低碳发展具有重要作用。中国能源工业必须坚持可持续发展理念，通过投资杠杆的调节作用，合理规划能源生产建设布局，加强现有生产设备的污染源治理和清洁生产项目建设，促进能源工业碳强度下降，推动能源工业低碳发展。本文基于能源工业投资机制的分析框架，剖析能源工业投资在促进温室气体减排过程中存在的主要问题，从影响机制、效率评估和耦合协调机制三个层面进行深入研究，找出这些问题的深层次原因，并提出政策建议。笔者在能源工业投资研究方面的创新之处，主要体现在以下几个方面：1．温室气体减排视角下的能源工业投资研究是气候研究与能源经济学两个研究领域的交叉性前沿问题。国内外多数的能源投资研究较少考虑温室气体减排的政策影响。本文立足温室气体减排视角，基于可持续发展理论、资源承载力理论和资源配置理论，提出能源工业投资机制的理论体系，论述其特征与原理，建立了相关指标体系和分析框架。2．分年度、分地区、分行业测算2006-2011年的中国能源工业温室气体排放量和能源工业碳强度，识别能源领域的关键排放行业和重点排放地区，分析能源工业温室气体排放与能源工业投资之间的关联性，发现以能源工业碳强度为代表的温室气体减排政策对能源工业具有引领效应，能源工业投资对温室气体排放具有锁定效应，并找到能源工业投资在促进温室气体减排过程中存在的主要问题。3．基于笔者提出的能源—经济—气候“三元”循环影响理论，把区域工业废气排放量作为分组指标，运用面板VAR分析技术，分组建立区域能源工业投资的能源—经济—气候面板VAR模型。通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解，动态分析了能源工业投资、经济增长与能源工业碳强度三者之间的动态影响关系。通过实证研究发现，能源工业碳强度的下降对于能源工业投资增长具有促进效应，论证了第3章中提出的“温室气体减排政策对能源工业具有引领效应”的研究结论。同时还发现，工业发达地区的温室气体减排政策对能源工业投资的促进效应更大。4．运用双边随机前沿分析方法，构建能源工业投资双边随机边界模型，实证检验了能源工业碳强度对能源工业投资效率的影响，揭示出能源工业投资效率不高的深层次原因。研究发现，受温室气体减排政策影响，能源企业内部融资约束和金融机构外部融资支持的综合效应导致能源工业实际投资支出水平比最优水平低了约23.02%，且能源工业发达地区的投资不足问题更为突出。5．运用协同学理论对能源投融资的耦合协调特征进行分析，认为能源投资与能源融资构成一个复合系统，发现其对气候环境具有胁迫效应，气候环境对能源投融资具有约束效应。通过建立能源工业的投融资耦合和协调的理论模型，设置包含温室气体减排因素的指标体系，评估指标权重，对全国30个省（市）的能源投融资耦合协调程度进行综合评价，认为各地区能源工业投融资之间发展不均衡、耦合程度不高、协调程度较弱，融资错位是导致能源工业投资不足的重要原因。本文通过理论分析和实证研究，发现以能源工业碳强度为代表的温室气体减排政策通过倒逼机制，可以对能源工业投资产生引领作用，促进能源工业投资总量与结构的调整。但是，过于严厉的温室气体减排政策将提高能源企业的投资成本和生产成本，增强其内部融资约束，导致能源工业投资低于最优水平。此外，由于能源工业融资错位，进一步加剧了能源工业投资不足与温室气体减排的深层次矛盾。基于此，笔者提出在温室气体减排的可持续发展平面内，深化制度、政府、市场、技术、投资、融资等六个层面的改革，促进能源工业投资总量与结构的调整，稳定和控制好能源领域的温室气体排放。本文紧跟理论前沿，力求贴近能源工业投资实际，提出针对性较强的政策建议。限于相关研究领域的文献较少，作者在研究方法和研究思路上只是浅尝辄止，加之理论水平和实践经验有限，对于一些问题的理解和研究还不够深入透彻，所提观点和建议难免存在偏颇和局限，有待今后进一步深入研究和改进。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Fourth Assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) of United Nations shows that, the major cause of global warming is the neteffect of human activities (+1.6[+0.6to+2.4] W/m2). Its effect is greater than that ofthe slight warming variations arising from the solar irradiance. The internationalcommunity has reached a consensus on preventing the global climate fromdeterioration by stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. China, asthe world’s largest consumer of coal, the largest emitter of sulfur dioxide and carbondioxide, the second largest consumer of energy, greatly impacted by the climate change,is confronted with the complex political game and the policy options in the process ofcoping with the climate change and implementing ecological environment governance.In wake of China’s industrialization and urbanization of the economic society in recentyears, the energy industry has become the focus areas of greenhouse gas emissionswith the increasing demand of the energy. According to "second nationalcommunications on climate change of People’s Republic of China", China’s carbondioxide emissions from energy activities was5.404billion tons in2005, all from fossilfuel combustion. Among them, the carbon dioxide emissions from the energyproduction sector and processing conversion sector was2.408billion tons, accountedfor44.55%, its absolute amount of emissions and the proportion of emissions occupiedthe first place of all departments, and increased significantly compared with1994.According to the estimation of the carbon dioxide emissions during2006-2011inenergy industry in this article, the share of greenhouse gases emissions from the energyindustry rose gradually from45.03%of2006to48.74%of2011,the inherentcontradictions between the high carbon resource endowments and low carbondevelopment requires sustained highlighted.Based on the above-mentioned background, the paper argues that investment in theenergy industry play a important role to promote the development of China’s low-carbonenergy industry. Chinese energy industry must adhere to the concept of sustainabledevelopment by regulating the role of investment leverage, rational planning of energyproduction and construction layout, strengthening the pollution control of the existingequipment and cleaner production projects to reduce the carbon intensity of the energy industry, push low-carbon energy industry development forward. On the basis of theframework of the energy industry investment analyzes mechanism, this article parse themain problem in respect of the investment into energy to promote declining thegreenhouse gas emissions, makes a profound study from the perspective of impact,efficiency, evaluation and coordination mechanism, finds out the deep-seated causes ofthese problems, and makes policy recommendations. The innovation in terms of energyinvestments in the paper, mainly presents in the following areas:1. The study of the relationship between declining the greenhouse gas emission andinvestment into the energy industry is a forefront, interdisciplinary topic between theclimate change research and energy economics research. Most studies of investment inenergy industry take less account of the policy of declining the greenhouse gas emissiondomestically and abroad. In this paper, on the perspective of declining the greenhousegass emission, on the base of sustainable development theory, resource load theory, andthe resource allocation theory, the author propose a energy industry investment system,elaborate the features and principle of it, sets up a set of index system and a frameworkfor analyze.2. This paper estimates the quantity of the greenhouse gas emissions and thecarbon intensity of the energy industry during2006-2011annually, regionalized,industry-varied, identifies the key industries and key regions of emission. Through theanalysis of the correlation among the emissions of greenhouse gas in energy industry,the author discovers, that the gas reduction policies on the energy industry has a leadingeffect on investment in the energy industry, the energy industry investment has a lock-ineffect on the declining greenhouse gas emissions, meanwhile, find the main problems inthe energy industry to invest in promoting the process of reducing greenhouse gasemissions.3. Based on the Energy-Economy-Climate "tripartite" cycle impact theory,applying the amount of industrial emissions in the certain area as a grouping indicator,we establish the model of the investment in energy industry, energy-economy-climatepanel VAR model, with the panel VAR analysis technology. By using impulse-responsefunction and variance decomposition, this paper analyzes the interaction among theinvestment of energy industry, regional economic growth, carbon intensity of the energyindustry, By empirical studies have the author found that the decrease in the carbonintensity of the energy industry has a promotion effect on the energy industryinvestment growth, demonstrates the theory presented in Chapter3,"greenhouse gas reduction policies has a leading effect on the energy industry ". It also found that theeffect of greenhouse gas emission reduction policies promotes the energy industryinvestment greater in the more heavily polluted area.4. This paper builds the investment model of the energy industry with the bilateralstochastic frontier analysis, empirical tests that the carbon intensity of energy industryhas the significant impact on the efficiency of investment of energy industry, reveals thedeep-seated causes of low efficiency of investment of the energy industry, discoversthat the comprehensive effect of constraints of internal financing and supporting ofexternal financing lowers the investment spending of the energy industry of23.02%than the optimal level. The underinvestment problem is more prominent in thedeveloped areas of the energy industry.5. The author uses the synergetic theory to analyze the coupling and coordinationcharacteristics of the investment and financing of energy industry by grouping the airpollution factor, considers financing energy investments and energy constitute acomplex system, reveals coercive effect that the energy investment and energyfinancing play on the climate and environment，and the constrain effect which theclimate and environment play on the energy investment and energy financing. Thispaper establishes the coupled coordination model and the evaluation system of theinvestment and financing of energy industry, set up a set of indicator System includinggreenhouse gas emissions factors and evaluation index weight, comprehensivelyevaluating the coupling and coordination degree of the30provinces (municipalities) inenergy investment and energy financing, considers that the energy investment andenergy financing have the unbalanced distribution and low degree of coupling andcoordinating, and reveals that the financing dislocation is the important reason forinadequate investment in the energy industry.In addition, due to the energy industry financing dislocation, the deep-seatedcontradictions between the lack of investment in the energy industry and declining thegreenhouse gas emissions is further exacerbated. The author makes efforts to press closeto actual situation of the investment of energy industry, follows the forefront theoreticalresearch, propose the the practically guiding suggestion based on the in-depth research.However, constrained by the shortage of the research literatures on investment ofenergy industry and climate change, the author just make the preliminary study with thethoughts and approach mentioned above. Due to the limited level of theory and practical experience, the author’s study and comprehension about the issues are not profoundenough. The ideas and proposals may be inevitably biased and limited. It may be a roomfor the further study in the future.更多还原