【作者】 刘森；

【导师】 刘渊；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 随着网络经济与知识经济的快速发展,企业需要能快速的响应市场变化并采取创新性的行动,才能在激烈的竞争中生存和发展。因此,企业的敏捷化程度直接决定了企业的存亡,并成为企业未来的发展方向。然而,企业传统IT架构过高的信息化成本以及相对固化的技术基础一定程度上已成为企业打造敏捷性实现IT价值的桎梏。云计算是一种通过网络以按需、自助的方式向客户提供硬件和软件等IT服务的新型信息技术服务模式,是IT技术进步的最新成果和IT基础设施的未来发展方向,其特有的弹性、可扩展性、按需付费和共享环境等技术特征为企业应对动态复杂环境,实现IT价值提供了一种更节约、更灵活、更可控的未来信息化解决方案。我国企业和政府也开始陆续探索基于云计算的新型信息化模式,力求为企业增强竞争力,提高绩效,创造新价值,也为以云计算为代表的新一代信息技术产业政策的落地提供着力点。云计算巨大的价值也已引起了学者们的关注。然而,虽然现有文献从各个角度探讨了云计算的价值,但大部分只是定性的推理和判断,且普遍缺乏实证数据支撑,仍然不清楚云计算是如何创造价值的。具体而言,现有研究仍存在以下三点不足：(1)对云计算技术内涵和特征的理解还不甚清晰；(2)缺乏云计算技术价值创造的实证研究；(3)现有云计算技术价值创造的研究缺乏明确、统一的理论基础,且国内研究还是空白。基于以上背景,本研究从云计算的技术特征出发,围绕“云计算如何创造价值”这一基本问题,遵从IT价值创造研究的范式,逐步深入的探究4个研究问题。首先基于能力的视角,解析并论证云计算基础设施能力、组织敏捷性(运营敏捷性、合作敏捷性与客户敏捷性)与企业绩效之间的关系,通过借鉴和融合IT能力和组织能力等理论,以使用云计算服务的企业用户为研究对象,拟探究：(1)云计算基础设施能力的内涵和维度是什么?(2)云计算通过什么样的机理来为企业创造价值?(3)企业在不同发展阶段(企业生命周期)和不同的市场动荡性下云计算的价值创造过程有何不同?其次,鉴于前面的研究虽然一定程度上解释了云计算技术对企业的价值,但云计算毕竟是一种新技术,还没有大范围的普及应用。因此,本文尝试借鉴经济学反事实仿真模拟实验的研究方法,拟回答问题(4)云计算技术在我国企业中大范围的普及应用后将会产生什么样的价值?本文采用理论研究与实证研究相结合,综合采用文献研究、结构方程模型、经济学动态随机一般均衡(Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium,简称DSGE)模型等方法,对上述问题进行深入研究。具体来说,本文的工作主要体现在以下四个方面：(1)梳理云计算技术的概念与内涵,从组织使用IT资源的角度出发,提出“云计算基础设施能力”的构念,并对其内涵进行界定和维度划分通过文献回顾,理清云计算的概念、特征、分类和服务模式,再基于IT基础设施能力的理论,结合云计算弹性、可扩展性、资源池、按需付费和共享环境的技术特征,提出“云计算基础设施能力”的理论构念,并将其分为灵活能力和整合能力两个维度,在管理层面上抽象出了云计算的能力特征。(2)提出并实证检验了云计算基础设施能力首先影响组织敏捷性,进而影响企业绩效的价值创造机理。遵从IT价值创造研究的范式,基于组织能力层级观提出“云计算基础设施能力——组织敏捷性——绩效”的云计算对技术企业价值创造机理的概念模型,并通过184家使用云计算服务企业的问卷调研数据,采用偏最小二乘法(PLS)结构方程对概念模型与假设进行实证检验,发现云计算基础设施能力的二个维度灵活能力和整合能力对企业的组织敏捷性的三个维度运营敏捷性、合作敏捷性、客户敏捷性均有积极的影响作用,组织敏捷性对企业绩效有显著的促进作用。说明云计算的应用可以帮助企业提高利用内、外部资源以应对变化并采取创新性行动的能力,即组织敏捷性,进而显著提高企业绩效。(3)系统研究了企业的内、外部情境变量企业生命周期和市场动荡性分别对云计算基础设施能力与组织敏捷性关系的调节作用。采用PLS多组分析等方法,结果表明,企业生命周期负向调节云计算基础设施灵活能力与运营敏捷性和客户敏捷性、整合能力与合作敏捷性之间的关系。但是企业生命周期正向调节整合能力与运营敏捷性以及灵活能力与合作敏捷性之间的关系,而整合能力与客户敏捷性之间的调节效用不显著。市场动荡性正向调节云计算基础设施的灵活能力与运营敏捷性、合作敏捷性以及整合能力与合作敏捷性、客户敏捷性之间的关系。但是市场动荡性负向调节灵活能力与合作敏捷性的关系,而整合能力与运营敏捷性关系的调节效应不显著。说明了企业在不同的发展阶段和不同的市场动荡性下,云计算技术价值创造过程的差异。(4)尝试采用经济学反事实仿真模拟实验的方法,模拟仿真研究了云计算大范围的普及应用后所产生的社会经济价值。鉴于云计算还未大范围的普及应用,尝试采用经济学反事实仿真模拟实验的研究范式,通过构建云计算对经济影响的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,采用文献和官方统计数据校准,仿真模拟估计云计算技术的扩散推广对我国经济的影响,模拟结果得出云计算技术的大范围普及应用在未来五年将会促进我国GDP增长0.41%-0.78%,就业人员增长0.06%～0.11%,新创造规模以上的中小企业数目增长1.43%-2.84%。并通过设置不同的技术扩散速度和分区域模拟,发现云计算的价值一定程度上取决于技术扩散速度,和云计算对我国欠发达地区的经济增长更有价值的结论,弥补了国内研究的空白。总之,本研究以使用云计算服务的企业用户为研究对象,探索云计算技术对企业价值创造的作用机理,在一定程度上弥补目前云计算研究空白的同时为我国企业的云计算实践提供科学指导。同时,鉴于云计算技术还没有大范围的普及应用,本研究还做了云计算技术在企业中大范围普及应用的经济仿真模拟实验研究,提炼和深化云计算技术的社会经济价值,对我国政府云计算相关的政策制定提供参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of network and knowledge economy, firms need to quickly respond to market changes and take innovative actions to survive and develop under fierce competitions.Therefore, agilities of a firm directly determine its survival, and become development direction in the future. However, the traditional IT architecture impeds a firm’s agility to realize the value of IT to some degree because of high informationization cost and fixed technology infrastructures.Cloud computing represents the latest progress in information technology evolution and refers to an "IT service model where computing services (both hardware and software) are delivered on demand to customers over a network in a self-service mode, independent of device and location". Compared with traditional IT, cloud computing has some special features such as elasticity, scalability, resource sharing, pay per use and shared environment, which provides a more economical, flexible and controllable future IT solutions for firms to deal with complex and dynamic environment and then creats values. Chinese firms and government have also started to explore new informatization model based on cloud computing, make effort to increase competitive advantages and create new values.The huge potential of cloud computing has raised attentions of researchers. However, although existing literatures explore values of cloud computing from different angles, with most of them are just qualitative reasoning and judgement. Pior researches with clear research methods, explicit theoretical perspectives, and supported empirical data are few Specifically, the existing researches have three deficiencies:(1) Unclear concept and characteristics of cloud computing (2) Lack of empirical studies of value creation of cloud computing;(3) T lack of a clear, unified theoretical basis in the existing studies about value creation of cloud computing, with domestic research still a blank.Under the above background, this research startd from technical characteristics of cloud computing, then focuses on "how cloud computing creates values", and complies with the IT value creation research paradigm. This study gradually in-depth explores four research questions. First of all, based on the perspective of capability, this research parses and demonstrates the relationship of cloud infrastructure capability, organizational agility (operational agility, partnering agility and customer agility) and firm performance, then, treat the firm users of chinese largest public cloud service as the research object through the reference and the fusion of IT capability and organizational capability, to explore:(1) What the conception and dimensions of cloud infrastructure capacity are?(2) How cloud computing creats values for firm?(3) What the differences of the value creation of cloud computing are in different stages of firm and martker turbulence? Secondly, the previous researches partly explains the value creation of cloud computing in firm level, However, cloud computing is a new technology, and hasn’t used popularly. Therefore, this research attemptes to use the method of economics counterfactual simulation experiment, to answer question (4) What the value of cloud computing technology for widespread use is in our country?All around these above issues, this article comprehensively utilizes theoretical research, empirical research, structural equation modeling, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) modeling and other research methods. Specifically, the works of this research are mainly manifested in the following four aspects:(1) We combine the concept and connotation of cloud computing, from the perspective of organization using IT resources, propose the construct of "cloud infrastructure capability", and define its concept and dimensions.Through literature review, this study clarifes the concept, characteristics, classification of cloud computing, as well as service mode, based on the theory of IT infrastructure capability, combined with the technical features of elasticity, scalability, resource sharing, pay per use and shared environment, propose the construct of "cloud infrastructure capability, and divided it into two dimensions-CI flexibility and CI integration, abstract out the cloud computing capability characteristics in management.(2) We propose and empirically test the value creation mechanism of cloud infrastructure capability (first affect organizational agility, then affect firm performance).Complying with the IT value creation research paradigm, this study proposes the concept of value creation model "cloud infrastructure capability-organizational agility-performance" based on the organization hierarchy capability view. Then, partial least squares (PLS) structural equation is adopted with questionnaire survey sample data to empirically test of the conceptual model and assumptions. The results shows that the two dimensions of CI flexibility and CI integration of cloud infrastructure capability are positively associated with three dimensions of organizations agility named operational agility, partnering agility and customer agility. Organizational agility is positively associated with firm performance. Results indicate that the application of cloud computing can help enterprises improve use of internal and external resources to cope with changes and abilities of taking innovative actions, namely organizational agility, and firm performance.(3) We systematically study the firm’s internal and external context variables, enterprise life cycle and market turbulence, respectively moderating the relationship between the cloud infrastructure capability and organizational agility.We use the method of PLS multi-group analysis. Results shows that enterprise life cycle negatively moderates the relationship between CI flexibility and operational agility, and between CI integration and partnering agility. However, enterprise life cycle postively moderates the relationship between CI integration and operational agility, and between CI flexibility and partnering agility And the moderating effect of enterprise life cycle between CI integration and customer agility is not significant. Market turbulence postively moderates the relationship among CI flexibility and operational agility, partnering agility, and among CI integration, partnering agility, and customer agility. However, Market turbulence negatively moderates relationship between CI flexibility and partnering agility. And the moderating effect of market turbulence between CI integration and operational agility is not significant. The research results illustrate that value creation of cloud computing are different in firm’s different stages and under different market turbulence(4) We attempt to adopt the method of economics counterfactual simulation research, and to simulate out the social and economic value after the popularization application of the cloud computing.We attempt to adopt the method of economics counterfactual simulation research, by building the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model of the popular use of cloud computing on the economic system, then use literature and official statistics to calibrate the model. Finally, this study simulates and estimates the spread use of the cloud computing and proposes that it will promote China’s GDP increased by0.41%-0.78%, and employment growth by0.06%-0.11%, as well as create a number of new small and medium-sized enterprises above designated size? increases by1.43%～2.84%in the next five years. And by setting the different technical diffusion apeed? and subregional simulation, this study finds that the value of cloud computing to a certain extent depends on the technology diffusion speed and are more valuable for less developed areas in China. This research makes up the gap of domestic studies.In a word, this research treats the firm users of "aliyun" cloud as the research object to explore the value creation mechanism of cloud computing to firms. This research to some extent fills the current cloud computing research gap and provides scientific guidance for firm’s cloud computing practice. At the same time, because cloud computing technology has not been used popularly, this study also uses counterfactual economic simulation experiment method to refine and deepen the social and economic value of cloud computing.更多还原