【作者】 李哲；

【导师】 唐鸣；

【作者基本信息】 华中师范大学 ， 宪政与法治， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 党的十八大提出,坚持中国特色的新型城镇化道路,“加快完善城乡一体化体制机制,促进城乡要素平等交换和公共资源均衡配置,形成以工促农、工农互惠、城乡一体的新型工农、城乡关系。”新型城镇化发展战略初步形成,以区别以往城镇化发展模式和机制,而新型城镇化的关键与核心就在于新型城乡关系的确立和定位上。如何从新型城乡关系的角度认识我国城镇化发展是未来我国新型城镇化建设研究的主要内容,同时也是新型城镇化发展水平评价指标体系的核心与指导框架。本文基于新型城乡关系的视角,从理论上建构了城乡融合的城镇化理论模式,以此作为新型城乡关系中城镇化发展的理论背景。之后,根据新型城乡关系发展理念的要求,提出了新型城乡关系背景中我国城镇化发展应有的指标体系,最终实现了对新型城乡关系的科学解读。为了实现对河南省城镇化建设的科学认识和对中国当前新型城乡关系实践的评价,在应有指标体系参照的基础上,本文建构了河南省城镇化发展水平指标评价体系,这一指标体系包括经济城镇化、人口城镇化、社会城镇化、空间城镇化、生活城镇化、环境城镇化等方面。理论和实践两个层面的指标体系,也构成了本文在指标体系研究中的应然层面和实然层面的区分。在以上研究的基础上,本文运用主成分分析方法从时间序列方向和横截面方面对2001年—2011年河南省18个地市的城镇化进程进行分析,运用方差分析法对河南省18个地市的城镇化差异性进行研究,运用趋势外推法和移动平均法对河南省18个地市的城镇化发展进行预测,并通过应然指标与实然指标的对比研究,主要得到以下结论：1、城镇化发展不仅包括城镇本身的发展,而且包括城乡融合的发展程度,二者不可偏颇。从新型城乡关系的角度来看,我国城镇化发展的基本理论模式表现为城乡融合模式。城乡融合模式遵循以人为本、均衡发展、内涵增长、包容和谐以及城乡融合等理念,在具体结构体系上以新型城乡关系建构为核心,以新型城镇化建设为制度与政策平台,以城乡融合为价值目标。城乡融合模式能够概括我国新型城乡关系中城镇化发展的基本方式、路径与结构。而在具体的研究中,通过“理论模型+指标模型”的双主体分析框架,形成了新型城乡关系中城镇化研究的基本分析范式。2、从时间序列方向来看,河南省18个地市2001—2011年城镇化水平均呈现出持续上升的趋势和特征,城镇化平均水平排名前三的地区是郑州市、安阳市、鹤壁市,城镇化平均水平排名后三的地区是驻马店市、平顶山市、南阳市。从横截面方向来看,2001—2011年期间,各年河南省18个地市的城镇化平均水平呈现出波动变化的特征；总体呈现出先下降,后上升,再下降,再上升的变化特征。从下降和上升的时期来看,与宏观经济环境和政策的变化和调整,以及经济增长的速度有着密切的关系;当实施宽松的宏观经济政策时,城镇化水平处于上升阶段,当实施紧缩的宏观经济政策时,城镇化水平处于下降阶段。3、主成分分析表明,城镇化评价指标对不同时期和不同区域的城镇化进程的贡献大小均存在着差异,但并非没有规律可循,总体上来讲,对各地区城镇化进程影响和贡献较大的指标主要集中体现在经济城镇化、人口城镇化、社会城镇化和生活城镇化方面,对各地区城镇化进程影响和贡献较小的指标主要集中体现在空间城镇化和环境城镇化方面：因此,为确保各区域城镇化水平的健康、持续和全面发展,空间城镇化和环境城镇化方面的问题应成为河南省18个地市城镇化发展中重要关注的方向和问题。4、方差正态性和齐性检验结果表明,2001年—2011年各年的河南省18个地市城镇化数据均通过方差正态性和齐性检验,因此满足方差分析对样本数据的基本要求。方差分析结果表明,经济发展水平高、中、低的城市间城镇化存在统计意义上的显著差异；即经济发展水平较高的地区,城镇化水平也相应的比较高,经济发展水平较低的地区,城镇化水平相应的比较低。5、从采用的预测方法来看,对河南省18个地市的城镇化进行预测中,主要采用的预测方法有趋势外推法和移动平均法两种方法。从运用的预测模型来看,采用趋势外推法进行城镇化预测的城市中,预测模型的形式主要表现为线型和二次函数；采用移动平均法进行城镇化预测的城市中,移动周期的长度均选择为3。从预测结果来看,河南省18个地市城镇化发展趋势主要表现为四种类型,分别是上升型的区域,主要包括安阳市、鹤壁市、济源市、焦作市、开封市、洛阳市、三门峡市、新乡市、郑州市等；下降型的区域,主要包括南阳市、濮阳市、商丘市等；先上升后下降型的区域,主要包括漯河市、许昌市、驻马店市等；无明显变化的区域,主要包括平顶山市、信阳市和周口市等。更多还原

【Abstract】 The18th CPC National Congress proposed that we should keep to the Chinese-style path of carrying out the urbanization.Speed up improvements to institutions and mechanisms for promoting integrated urban and rural development, with a focus on integrating urban and rural planning, infrastructure and public service. We should ensure equal exchange of factors of production between urban and rural areas and balance allocation of public resources between them. What we aim to achieve is a new type of relations between industry and agriculture and between urban and rural areas in which industry promotes agriculture, urban areas support rural development, agriculture and industry benefit each other, and there is integrated urban and rural development. new urbanization development strategy initially formed to distinguish between past urbanization development model and mechanism, and new urbanization and the core lies the key to establishing and positioning the new urban-rural relations. How to understand the development of China’s urbanization from the perspective of the new urban-rural relationship is the next major content of the new urbanization research in China, but also the core and guiding framework for the development of new urbanization level evaluation index system. Based on the perspective of the new urban-rural relations, urban-rural integration theoretical models were constructed,as a theoretical background of new relations between urbanization and rural development. After that, according to the requirements of the new urban-rural relationship development, it proposed index system that refers to the relationship between the new context of urbanization and rural development of our country, and ultimately the scientific interpretation of the new urban-rural relations. In order to scientifically achieve the understanding of urbanization in Henan and assess China’s current practice of the new urban-rural relationship Based on the current index system, the paper constructs the level of urbanization development evaluation index system in Henan Province, the index system including economic urbanization, population urbanization, urbanization, social, spatial urbanization, life urbanization, urbanization and other environmental aspects. Both theoretical and practical aspects of the index system constitute a research paper ought index system level and at the level of the Real distinction On this basis, the use of principal component analysis from the time series and cross-sectional direction in terms of2001-2011urbanization18cities in Henan Province were analyzed using analysis of variance for18cities in Henan Province to study differences in urbanization, trend extrapolation using the moving average method and the development of urbanization18cities in Henan forecast; main conclusions are as follows:1, Urbanization development, including the development of not only the town itself, but also the degree of integration of urban and rural development, the two cannot be biased. From the perspective of the new urban-rural relationship, the basic theoretical models of urbanization and rural development are in the performance of our integration model. Urban-rural integration mode follow the people-oriented, balanced development, organic growth, inclusive and harmonious urban and rural integration and other concepts, the specific structural system constructed the new urban-rural relationship as the core, take the new urbanization as institution and policy platform, and take the urban-rural integration for value of the target. Urban-rural integration model can reflect the new urban-rural relationship in the basic ways of urbanization development path and structure. In particular study, the main analytical framework through dual "theoretical model+index model", forms the basic paradigm of the new urban-rural relationship analysis of the urbanization.2, from the direction of the time series, the18cities in Henan Province2001-2011urbanization level both showed an upward trend and characteristics. The average level of urbanization after the top three areas are Zhengzhou, Anyang, Hebi, the average level of urbanization in the region is ranked third in Zhumadian, Pingdingshan, Nanyang During2001-2006in2011, the average level of urbanization in each of18cities in Henan Province presents a cross-section view of the fluctuations in the direction of changing characteristics; Overall showing the variations that first decline after rising, then fall, then rise from the fall and rise of the term, the changes in the macroeconomic environment and policy and adjustment, as well as the pace of economic growth are closely related. When implementing accommodative macroeconomic policies, the level of urbanization is on the rise, when the tightening of macroeconomic policies, the level of urbanization is in the decline stage.3, the main component analysis showed that there is a different contribution for the urbanization evaluation of the process in different periods and in different regions, but it is not without a pattern, generally speaking, a greater impact and contribution to regional indicators of urbanization mainly reflected in the economy of urbanization, population urbanization, urbanization and social life of urbanization, the impact on regional urbanization and contributions smaller space index mainly reflected in urbanization urbanization and environmental aspects; therefore the problem of space urbanization and environmental aspects of urbanization should be the direction of the18cities and problems of urban development in Henan Province, should be concerned to ensure that the regional level of urbanization develop in a healthy, sustainable and comprehensive way,4, normality and variance homogeneity test results showed that each of the years2001to2011in18cities in Henan Province Urbanization data are normality and variance homogeneity test Therefore, it is meet the basic requirements of the sample data by using the analysis of variance, Variance analysis showed that high levels of economic development, there is a statistically significant difference between the sense of urbanization, the urban low; namely a high level of regional economic development, the level of urbanization is also a corresponding high and low level of economic development region, urbanization level corresponding relatively low.5, from forecasting methods used, the18cities in Henan Province Urbanization predict, there are two kinds of trend extrapolation and prediction methods moving average method is mainly used. Judging from the use of predictive models, using trend extrapolation forecasting urbanization in the city, mainly in the form of prediction models for the linear and quadratic functions; using the moving average method to forecast urban urbanization, the movement cycle3were selected as the length. From the predicted results, Henan18cities urbanization trends mainly into four types, namely, ascending, descending, descending after the first rise, no significant change. The type of Rising area, including Anyang, Hebi, Jiyuan, Jiaozuo, Kaifeng, Luoyang, Sanmenxia, Xinxiang, Zhengzhou, etc.; descending region, including Nanyang, Puyang, Shangqiu etc.; rise after the first fall-type region, including Luohe, Xuchang, Zhumadian, etc.; no significant changes in the region, including Pingdingshan, Xinyang and Zhoukou and so on.更多还原