【作者】 吴侃侃；

【导师】 张珞平； Paolo.F.Ricci； 陈玮琪； 方秦华；

【作者基本信息】 厦门大学 ， 环境管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 环境风险评价是按照一定的评价标准和评价方法对人类活动和各种自然灾害引起的风险进行评估,并提出合理可行的防范、应急与减缓措施,以使事故率、损失和环境影响达到可接受水平。目前国内外的环境风险评价中,未见在海岸带区域战略决策中应用环境风险评价；针对区域战略决策的环境风险评价的技术路线和方法体系缺少系统性研究,其评价结果也较难为区域战略决策提供明确的结论。海岸带作为海陆作用明显的区域,其生态系统面临人类开发活动带来的巨大压力。故针对海岸带区域战略决策环境风险评价的技术路线和方法亟待研究,以避免决策失误而带来严重的后果。本文通过对国内外环境风险评价技术路线及方法进行比较,总结了环境风险评价的研究进展、发展趋势和存在问题。通过对海岸带区域的特性的了解,明确海岸带区域战略决策对环境风险评价的需求,针对现有评价存在难以支持决策的问题,构建了海岸带区域战略决策环境风险评价的技术路线和方法体系。在海岸带区域战略决策环境风险评价技术路线的构建中,参考国内外决策环境风险评价的发展趋势,并基于海岸带区域特性,设计了一种新的以多维决策法为基础的区域战略决策环境风险评价的技术路线,包括战略决策制定前的环境风险评价以支持决策备选方案的制定、战略决策过程中的环境风险评价以支持决策方案的确定,和决策后的环境风险评价为管理决策服务。在方法体系的构建中,参考国内外应用较多的环境风险评价的方法,通过各种方法优缺点的比较,并结合海岸带区域的特性、海岸带区域主要存在的环境风险类型、以及上述基于多维决策法环境风险评价技术路线三个主要阶段中各自的内容和要求,遴选各阶段适合的环境风险评价方法,构建了海岸带区域战略决策环境风险评价的方法体系。包括战略决策制定前的回顾性和现状环境风险评价以及专家评判法等方法；战略决策过程中的多维决策法(Multi-Dimension Decision Mking, MDDM)和多准则决策分析法(Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, MCDA);以及为管理决策服务环境风险评价方法如概率统计分析法、风险矩阵法等。本文在海岸带区域战略决策备选方案选择阶段应用了当前决策方法中较为盛行的MCDA的技术路线和相关方法,并将其与MDDM同时应用于海岸带主体功能区划项目的厦门湾和罗源湾案例中,通过应用过程和评价结果对两种方法进行比较研究。通过比较研究,MCDA和MDDM主要有以下差别：从应用过程的比较可以看出：(1) MCDA对评价数据的要求较高,MDDM对基础数据资料的处理更为全面、客观；(2) MCDA仍存在指标选择、指标的标准值确定和权重分配等问题；(3) MCDA相对多维决策法有更明确的评价流程,而MDDM比选备选方案的可操作性较强。尽管两种方法最终决策评价的结果较为一致,但从评价结果可以看出：(1)MDDM的结果与公众参与的结果基本一致,而MCDA在罗源湾石油化工风险方面评价的结果与公众参与的结果偏差较为明显；(2) MCDA对两种决策备选方案的决策结果差异不大,对决策的支持较模糊；而MDDM的决策结果较明晰,对决策支持程度明显优于多准则决策分析法。本研究建立的以MDDM为基础的海岸带区域战略决策环境风险评价的技术路线和方法体系,打破了传统决策环境风险评价的模式,并且能够通过MDDM有效支持决策,避免海岸带区域战略决策的环境风险失误,确保海岸带区域的可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Environmental risk assessment is a process that evaluates risk on the environment caused by human activities and nature disasters in order to formulate precaution and interrelated risk management measures to reduce and mitigate risk and its impact to achieve in acceptable level. In China or international, there is no related application of environmental risk assessment in strategic decision-making processes and no systematic research on the approaches and methods of environmental risk assessment aiming at supporting regional strategic decision-making processes. The coastal ecosystem is confronted with tremendous press from human activities. Therefore, environmental risk assessment that support coastal strategic decision-making processes would be in urgent to avoid the serious risk caused by the errors of decision-making processes.The research progress, development, approaches and methods of environmental risk assessment were summarized, and then an approach and methodology of environmental risk assessment for strategic decision-making process in coastal area was proposed in this dissertation.According to the features of coastal area and strategic decision-making processes, a new approach of environmental risk assessment based on Multi-Dimension Decision-Making (MDDM) approach was set up, which includes three stages:the environmental risk assessment before decision-making process to support the formulation of alternatives of strategic decision-making (Phase Ⅰ), the environmental risk assessment in decision-making process to support the determination of strategic decision-making (Phase Ⅱ), and the environmental risk assessment after decision-making to service managerial decision-making process (Phase Ⅲ).The methodological system of environmental risk assessment for strategic decision-making processes in coastal area was established based on the features of coastal area, main types of environmental risk in coastal area and the approach including three phases mentioned above by comparing the advantages and disadvantages of current main methods in international. The methodology mainly includes:retrospective assessment and experts judgment used in Phase I, multi-dimension decision-making (MDDM) method and its model used in Phase II comparing with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), and Probability statistic analysis, risk matrix and other suitable traditional methods used in Phase III.The MDDM and MCDA were used in the determination of decision-making processes in the case studies of principal coastal functional zoning in the coastal areas of Xiamen Bay and Luoyuan Bay. The comparison of two methods of environmental risk assessment, MDDM and MCDA, are summarized as following:In the view of application process, the differences between MDDM and MCDA were found that:(1) MCDA requires more strict and specified data, while MDDM collected all existing data for the assessment to ensure the integrity and objectivity information for decision-making process;(2) MCDA still exists some inherent problems in the selection of criteria or indexes, the determination of standard value of criteria and determination of weight;(3) The technological progress of MCDA is more clear than MDDM and less flexible, while MDDM is more convenient to operate than the MCDA in the comparison of alternative and determination of decision-making processes.The final assessment result of decision-making processes calculated by two methods are consistent relatively, but in the view of assessment result, the differences were still found that:(1) the results by MDDM have higher consistency with the result of public involvement and expert-judgment than MCDA. The result of MCDA in the assessment of petroleum industrial risk in Luoyuan Bay was different with that of public participation;(2) In the comparison of alternatives for decision-making processes, the results by MCDA did not show much differences between different alternatives, and less support for decision-making processes than MDDM.The approach and methodology of environmental risk assessment of strategic decision-making process in coastal area based on MDDM can combine environmental risk assessment into decision-making process, well support decision-making process, avoid environmental risk caused by the errors of strategic decision-making process in coastal area, and promote the sustainable development in coastal area.更多还原