【作者】 付恭华；

【导师】 姜春云； 李小云；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业大学 ， 农村发展与管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 粮食安全是经济和社会发展的基础。中国是世界上最大的发展中国家,随着我国人口的增长和人均收入水平的提高我国粮食需求量将持续扩大。在基本自给的粮食安全政策主导下,追求粮食产量成为了我国农业生产和管理部门的首要目标。本论文研究发现,在过去几年里我国粮食生产过程的生产者成本、财政成本和生态成本都出现了大幅的上涨。虽然我国目前粮食安全水平较高,但粮食生产的可持续性受到经济(财政)、社会和生态三方面的刚性约束,其中生态和资源约束是根本性约束。我国目前的粮食产量是以农业高投入和财政高补贴为代价的。如果维持我国目前粮食生产的财政补贴增长趋势,我国财政很难继续维持下去,而一旦财政补贴出现问题,我们目前依靠财政补贴的粮食生产体系就将发生系统性风险。其次,我国目前过度强调粮食基本自给,粮食生产能力几乎到了资源和生态可承受的极限。化肥、农药的大量使用更是导致了农业面源污染和生态破坏,最直接的表现就是我国粮食生产过程中生态破坏成本和生态服务价值机会成本损失的快速上涨。而不管是粮食生产过程中要素投入增加导致的资源耗竭还是生态成本的增加都直接影响我国农业生产活动的生态可持续发展。最后,在我们重商轻农的宏观政策驱动下我国农村的发展越来越被边缘化,城乡经济社会发展越来越不平衡,农民大量外流使得农村社会和农业生产的可持续性面临威胁。而如果我们继续维持二元经济结构限制农民外流来维持粮食生产,则将加剧农民与其他群体之间的利益分化,也不具有社会可持续性。要破解我国粮食安全所面临的三重约束,可以通过外部资源的输入予以解决。本论文通过将中国、美国、巴西和非洲在2006到2010年间粮食生产成本比较分析后,发现我国在稻谷、小麦、玉米和大豆的生产成本均高于其它三个地区。而巴西和非洲除了粮食生产成本低于我国外,南美和非洲至今还有大量的可耕地资源以及丰富的生态资源,粮食生产潜力巨大。中国完全可能也可以加强与这两个地区内国家的农业合作,将我国在资金和技术上的优势与它们的资源和生态优势结合。通过从南美和非洲生产和进口粮食,降低国内粮食生产的资源和成本压力,实现我国粮食安全的可持续发展。本论文据此提出新粮食安全观并围绕新粮食安全观探索性地提出了我国未来的粮食安全保障新模式。由于我国目前基本自给的粮食安全观给我国粮食生产在经济(财政)、社会和生态三个方面都带来了挑战,经济、社会和生态的可持续性受到严重威胁。因此,新粮食安全观更强调粮食数量安全与可持续发展的协调发展。本文主张适当降低我国粮食自给率,统筹利用国内国际两个市场、两种资源,以更低的财政成本和生态成本保障粮食安全。本论文由四大部分,共八章内容组成。第一部分即论文的第一章“导言。”该部分主要阐述本研究的背景和意义、论文所涉及关键概念的界定、国内外研究进展、论文的结构与主要内容、研究的思路,方法与数据来源以及本研究的创新点与不足之处。第二部分由论文的第二章到第五章组成。第二部分是本文的主体部分,主要对2006年到2010年我国粮食(稻谷、小麦、玉米和大豆)生产的生产者成本、财政成本以及生态成本进行核算。再将这三项成本加总,得出我国粮食的生产成本。第五章把我国粮食生产成本与美国、巴西和非洲的粮食生产成本进行横向对比分析。第三部分由论文的第六章和第七章组成。该部分在分析我国粮食安全状况及所面临问题(主要是粮食生产成本过高和农业生态不可持续两个方面)的基础上,提出了新粮食安全观。在新安全观基础上,探索符合我国实际情况的粮食安全新保障模式并重点分析了粮食安全新保障模式的必要性与可行性。第四部分即论文的最后一章(第八章)。该部分对本文主要内容进行归纳总结,并对我国粮食安全存在的问题提出相关政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Food security is the basis for economic development and social stability of any country. China as the largest developing country in the world, the amount of food demand in China has been increasing as the expanse of population scale and the improvement of per capita income level in the country. To pursue more food output and higher food yield becomes the most important target of agricultural production sector and management department in the context of the policy that is achieving food self-sufficiency basically rely on domestic resources. This study found that the food production costs (the cost of producer, fiscal cost and ecological cost in the process of food production) have been increasing in the last few years. Although food security level in China today is relatively high, the sustainability of food production is rigidly restrained by fiscal resource, social resource and ecological resource. The short of ecological resource and land resource are the basic constraints among these constraints.The achievement of steady food output in present China mostly comes at the costs of more resources investment and more financial subsidy. And if we keep the tendency of high financial subsidy ratio in food production, our financial fund can not sustainable in the long run. Once the financial subsidy encounters any problem then the whole food production system which built on financial subsidy will also encounter high risk. Secondly, today we overemphasize food self-sufficiency and have been making the best use of resources and environment. Due to the overuse of chemical fertilizer and pesticide, agricultural non-point pollution and ecological damage problems is getting worse and worse. Besides, the rapid increases of the ecological cost during food production process directly result to the pollution and damage. All in all, both the run out of material resources and the increase of ecological cost in food production directly impact the ecological sustainable development of agricultural industry. Finally, in the background of mercantile macro policy the development of rural areas has been marginalized, and the gap of economic development between rural China and urban China has been widening. This makes that more and more farmer labors move from rural villages to urban cities. With the outflow of farmer labor, the sustainability of rural society and agricultural industry in China are also being challenged. If we maintain the urban-rural dual economic structure to restrict the outflow of farmers, it will increase the interest differentiation of farmers and other groups. It lacks of social sustainability.In order to break down the three restrictions of food security in China, resources import can be the key to solve the restrictions. This study found that the production cost of grain, wheat, corn and soybean in China is higher than which produced in America, Brazil and African countries by comparing Chinese food production cost with these countries from2006to2010. Not only the production cost in Brazil and Africa are lower than in China, both also both South America and Africa countries have huge arable land resources and amount of ecological resources. It proves that both areas have huge food production potential. Therefore, China not only wants to but also need to enhance agriculture cooperation with these areas. It can not only make better use of China’s fund and technology but also can play the advantage of land resource and ecological resources in Brazil and Africa fully through mutual or multilateral cooperation. It can decrease domestic pressures of resources and economic cost in food production sector, and to realize the sustainable development of China’s food security by importing more foodstuffs from South America and Africa countries.Based on the comparative analysis of the existing food security situation in China, we found that several flaws indwell the current situation. Hence, this study put forward new concept as well as new guarantee mode of China’s food security to take the place of the existing mode. Since the existing guarantee mode overwhelms emphasis on food self-sufficiency, it brings economic (public finance), social and ecological challenges to food production. The sustainability of economic, social and ecological faces difficulties and challenges in the field of agricultural production. Therefore, the new concept of food security will put more emphasis on harmonious relationship between food quantitative security and sustainable development. The new food security concept suggests our government should decrease the rate of food self-sufficiency, make better use of domestic and international markets and resources. It can reduce financial cost and ecological cost for guaranteeing food security in China.This dissertation consists of four parts and a total of eight chapters.The first chapter of "Forward" as the first part of the thesis, it primarily provides the research background and significance, the definition of the key concepts, review of research status (literature review), the structure and main content of research, the research ideas, approach and data sources. At the end of this part the author point out the innovation points and disadvantages of this study.The second part of this dissertation as the main body of this study consists of Chapter Two, Chapter Three, Chapter Four and Chapter Five. This part successively calculates food producer’s cost, fiscal cost and ecological cost of China food production (include grain, wheat, corn and soybean) between2006and2010. Based on this calculation we get the information of total cost of food production in China. In addition, we compare China’s food production cost with American, Brazilian and African correspondingly in Chapter Five.Chapter Six and Chapter Seven constitute the third part of this dissertation. This part first analyzes the current situation and the problems faced by China’s food security. Secondly, the new concept of food security was put forward based on that analysis. Thirdly, in order to better implement the new concept in practice field, we provide the new mode for guaranteeing food security which combined with the current reality of China accordingly. In addition, we take an analysis at the necessity and feasibility of the new guaranteeing mode at the end of this partThe last part of this dissertation has only Chapter Eight. This part summarized the key content of the thesis and also proposed some policy suggestions for the reform of the food security guarantee system in China.更多还原